000
FXUS64 KHGX 111947
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
247 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow]...
The remaining memory of the frontal system still remains over the
area. With the mix of daytime heating, a line of cloud coverage has
formed along the I-45 corridor. This area along the boundary has the
greatest potential fr showers and thunderstorms to develop this
evening. On the bright side, we are approaching peak heating and
temperatures are looking mild with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
for the rest of today. Tonight, low to mid 70 for much of the CWA
and 80 for Galveston and College Station area dropping below 70.
Tomorrow the heat makes a bit of a comeback with most of the CWA
hitting low to mid 90s. With the boundary making a retreat as the
low in the northern gulf makes its way westward towards the area,
we will find ourselves in the void between the two. So some more
sky clearing tomorrow could let us enjoy more sunshine with a
light northerly breeze. Still, some coastal showers and airmass
thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon and evening but
coverage looks to stay more in the coastal counties. 35
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...
Kind of a messy and complicated long term forecast for SE TX. On
Saturday night, a weak area of low pressure will try to develop in
the central Gulf of Mexico and slowly meanders W-SW toward NE Mexico.
This feature will toss some moisture to the N-NW of the center and
bring coastal areas a chance of rain Saturday night. The surface low
coupled with a weak trough over the midwest will bring additional
showers and storms on Sunday. Fcst soundings show PW values
increasing to 2.25 inches, virtually no capping and convective temps
in the upper 80`s. The low over the extreme southern Gulf loses it`s
influence over SE TX but a second area of disturbed weather over the
Bahamas will cross FL over the weekend and emerge over the eastern
Gulf on Monday. There is very little shear over the Gulf and despite
some upwelling from Laura, the gulf waters remain quite warm so some
intensification of this system looks likely. The aforementioned upper
level trough over the midwest should tug this feature N-NW toward
the LA coast. Much can/will change by the middle to end of next week
so it`s be wise to keep up with the latest forecasts. Model trends
support a brief decrease in moisture levels Tue/Wed as SE TX lies
between the decaying system well to the south and the deepening
system off to the east. As the developing system to the east nudges
closer Thursday and beyond, moisture levels perk back up to between
2.20 and 2.40 inches with convective temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 80`s. A well defined shear axis will also develop
across SE TX Thu-Fri with a weak surface trough developing from the
surface low (over Arkansas) extending across SE TX. Rain chances
look likely both days. Conditions should begin to dry out again next
weekend as upper level ridging over the southern Rockies expands
into Texas. 43
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions for the rest of the day at the TAF sites. A few low
ceilings could still linger in the UTS flying area for another hour
or so. This evening, some air mass thunderstorms are expected along
the more coastal areas and could end up as far north as IAH and then
some evening showers at CXO. Tonight`s ceilings are looking less
wide spread than the previous nights. CLL/UTS/CXO are the only real
threats tomorrow morning as some ridging moves into the area and
drier air along with it. 35
&&
.MARINE...
A weak surface boundary remains along the nearshore waters,
producing north wind gusts around 15 knots. Winds will gradually
decrease this evening and a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
category will not be required. Residual boundary (or boundaries) and
a well-saturated low to mid level layer will lead to isolated
showers and thunderstorms overnight into early Saturday. We will
then transition to a more unsettled weather pattern late this
weekend into next week as a couple of disturbances with a potential
for tropical development move through the Gulf. The first easterly
wave approaches the region Saturday night into Sunday and the next
system moves close to our region towards the end of next week. An
increased influx of moisture and instability will be likely
throughout the week, with locally gusty winds and increased waves
with any storms. Uncertainty with the evolution of these systems and
its impacts across Southeast Texas remain high; therefore, continue
to monitor the latest forecasts for more details. For more tropical
weather information, visit the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov. 05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 89 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 30 20
Houston (IAH) 74 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 91 82 91 81 / 10 10 40 60 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...45
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05
TROPICAL...Luchs
