I was kinda being a little silly but if I can get my boat to anybody who needs help I will do it haha
September 2020:
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Man those feeder bands extend a hell of a long ways out in the gulf
El Campo area getting drilled. 1-2+ inch an hour stuff
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
I think the potential exists for tomorrow night to be the main event as the center passes overhead. Not a forecast - just a thought.
Our friendly neighborhood forum WX experts are mighty quiet tonight...
I agree, the next wave to watch will be during morning rush hour as a new feeder band moves in during D MAX. But the biggest potential for flooding seems to be tomorrow night as the core moves over the metro area.I'm getting concerned that we will have a core rain event.
1 inch on Sunday and another 3.25 today so far in Rosharon.
Just got home. Clear Creek is majorly out of its banks over here in the Nassau Bay area. Got about 5 inches so far tonight. Flooding events ongoing all over SE Texas at the moment. That, combined, with the storm surge, has resulted in more of an event than I was expecting. Going to mark down TS Beta on the list of tropical storms I've been throw. It made the list.
Another squally band for Friendswood now.
Storms are already starting to train again...tomorrow may be a busy day around here.
Checked the radar now that its raining again over in the Nassau Bay area. See another rain band moving over already hard hit areas.
Some I heard the meteorologist say on Channel 2 news around 11pm or so - with tropical cyclones, it doesn't take much. Alison was a minimal tropical storm. So was on Imelda. Even Harvey caused most of SE Texas's problems while a minimal tropical storm stalled inland.
Some I heard the meteorologist say on Channel 2 news around 11pm or so - with tropical cyclones, it doesn't take much. Alison was a minimal tropical storm. So was on Imelda. Even Harvey caused most of SE Texas's problems while a minimal tropical storm stalled inland.
I brought up core rain event potential a few days ago when the NWS had the center close to downtown. Storm is pretty far inland...don wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:26 pmI agree, the next wave to watch will be during morning rush hour as a new feeder band moves in during D MAX. But the biggest potential for flooding seems to be tomorrow night as the core moves over the metro area.I'm getting concerned that we will have a core rain event.
Kinda get the feeling this thing might just head up 59 once it gets moving again. Boy this looks potentially nasty to me..
WPC has issued a HIGH risk for flash flooding for metro Houston today. Be safe out there.
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020
Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 22 2020 - 12Z Wed Sep 23 2020
...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana...
Beta is expected to continue a slow east-northeastward movement
along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast today with a prolonged
period of heavy rain expected from just north of Matagorda Bay to
Galveston Bay, including the Houston-metro area. Through at least
00Z Wednesday, Slow moving spiral inflow bands are expected to
oscillate in intensity and location between the center of the
circulation to just west of a significant dry intrusion noted in
the 700-300 mb layer over the Sabina River Valley. KHGX rainfall
estimates from an ongoing slow moving rainfall axis, located over
southern Harris County, were in the 7-10 inch range as of 08Z.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized rates in excess of 3
in/hr are expected to persist during the day today. With
widespread 3-6 inch totals that have already fallen through 08Z
this morning between roughly Houston to Victoria, additional
localized rainfall maxima of 5-10 inches will allow for
significant flash flooding in and around the Houston metro area
which is surrounded by a High Risk. Deformation banding on the
north side of Beta's circulation center will be slow to move
northeastward through southeastern Texas today which accounts for
the Moderate Risk. Individual members of the 00Z HREF supported 24
hour totals of 5 to 10 inches, with local maxima of 15 inches, and
these numbers do not seem unreasonable.
Farther east, persistent low level confluence with 850 mb wind
speeds of 20-30 kt are expected to continue strong moisture
transport into the southern Louisiana coast...east of the
aforementioned dry intrusion. A limiting factor for heavy rain
extending more than 20-30 miles north of the coastline is weak
instability. Hi-res model runs from previous nights have been too
aggressive with northward penetration of heavy rainfall into
Louisiana, and while tonight's 00Z suite is not as aggressive,
there remains some west-east displacement of heavier totals. 24
hour totals of 3-5 inches appear likely. However, given far
southern Louisiana is a difficult area to flash flood given
marsh-like land areas, debated whether to remove the Moderate Risk
from continuity, but ultimately it was agreed that a narrow
portion could remain into southern Louisiana based on
collaboration with LCH/LIX.
FXUS64 KHGX 220856
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020
...Very Dangerous Flash Flood Threat Continues to Develop...
.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
Tropical Storm Beta made landfall Monday evening and is centered to
the west of the Edna area early this morning. Rainbands associated
with Beta`s circulation, similar to the ones that developed Monday
evening and caused flash flooding in/around the South Houston/Pearland/
Friendswood/League City areas, have continued to develop early this
morning with some in and around the same locations that received 5 to
8 inches of rain yesterday. Lots of short term and high resolution
models have been consistent in developing additional rainbands during
the remaining overnight hours and out through at least the morning hours.
If this pans out, especially over already hard hit locations, dangerous
flooding and flash flooding will occur, including on area creeks, bayous
and rivers. Beta`s slow forecasted movement over the next 24 to 36 hours
will favor additional banding development. If this happens, especially
over the same areas over and over again, dangerous flooding and flash
flooding could continue on into tonight and Wednesday morning, including
in and near locations that have been experiencing some surge related
flooding from this system. Additional rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches
or more will be possible with the persistent banding, and this could
easily make Beta`s isolated totals reach or exceed 20 inches. 42
&&
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020
Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 22 2020 - 12Z Wed Sep 23 2020
...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana...
Beta is expected to continue a slow east-northeastward movement
along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast today with a prolonged
period of heavy rain expected from just north of Matagorda Bay to
Galveston Bay, including the Houston-metro area. Through at least
00Z Wednesday, Slow moving spiral inflow bands are expected to
oscillate in intensity and location between the center of the
circulation to just west of a significant dry intrusion noted in
the 700-300 mb layer over the Sabina River Valley. KHGX rainfall
estimates from an ongoing slow moving rainfall axis, located over
southern Harris County, were in the 7-10 inch range as of 08Z.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized rates in excess of 3
in/hr are expected to persist during the day today. With
widespread 3-6 inch totals that have already fallen through 08Z
this morning between roughly Houston to Victoria, additional
localized rainfall maxima of 5-10 inches will allow for
significant flash flooding in and around the Houston metro area
which is surrounded by a High Risk. Deformation banding on the
north side of Beta's circulation center will be slow to move
northeastward through southeastern Texas today which accounts for
the Moderate Risk. Individual members of the 00Z HREF supported 24
hour totals of 5 to 10 inches, with local maxima of 15 inches, and
these numbers do not seem unreasonable.
Farther east, persistent low level confluence with 850 mb wind
speeds of 20-30 kt are expected to continue strong moisture
transport into the southern Louisiana coast...east of the
aforementioned dry intrusion. A limiting factor for heavy rain
extending more than 20-30 miles north of the coastline is weak
instability. Hi-res model runs from previous nights have been too
aggressive with northward penetration of heavy rainfall into
Louisiana, and while tonight's 00Z suite is not as aggressive,
there remains some west-east displacement of heavier totals. 24
hour totals of 3-5 inches appear likely. However, given far
southern Louisiana is a difficult area to flash flood given
marsh-like land areas, debated whether to remove the Moderate Risk
from continuity, but ultimately it was agreed that a narrow
portion could remain into southern Louisiana based on
collaboration with LCH/LIX.
FXUS64 KHGX 220856
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020
...Very Dangerous Flash Flood Threat Continues to Develop...
.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
Tropical Storm Beta made landfall Monday evening and is centered to
the west of the Edna area early this morning. Rainbands associated
with Beta`s circulation, similar to the ones that developed Monday
evening and caused flash flooding in/around the South Houston/Pearland/
Friendswood/League City areas, have continued to develop early this
morning with some in and around the same locations that received 5 to
8 inches of rain yesterday. Lots of short term and high resolution
models have been consistent in developing additional rainbands during
the remaining overnight hours and out through at least the morning hours.
If this pans out, especially over already hard hit locations, dangerous
flooding and flash flooding will occur, including on area creeks, bayous
and rivers. Beta`s slow forecasted movement over the next 24 to 36 hours
will favor additional banding development. If this happens, especially
over the same areas over and over again, dangerous flooding and flash
flooding could continue on into tonight and Wednesday morning, including
in and near locations that have been experiencing some surge related
flooding from this system. Additional rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches
or more will be possible with the persistent banding, and this could
easily make Beta`s isolated totals reach or exceed 20 inches. 42
&&
- Attachments
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-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4515
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 220856
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020
...Very Dangerous Flash Flood Threat Continues to Develop...
.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
Tropical Storm Beta made landfall Monday evening and is centered to
the west of the Edna area early this morning. Rainbands associated
with Beta`s circulation, similar to the ones that developed Monday
evening and caused flash flooding in/around the South Houston/Pearland/
Friendswood/League City areas, have continued to develop early this
morning with some in and around the same locations that received 5 to
8 inches of rain yesterday. Lots of short term and high resolution
models have been consistent in developing additional rainbands during
the remaining overnight hours and out through at least the morning hours.
If this pans out, especially over already hard hit locations, dangerous
flooding and flash flooding will occur, including on area creeks, bayous
and rivers. Beta`s slow forecasted movement over the next 24 to 36 hours
will favor additional banding development. If this happens, especially
over the same areas over and over again, dangerous flooding and flash
flooding could continue on into tonight and Wednesday morning, including
in and near locations that have been experiencing some surge related
flooding from this system. Additional rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches
or more will be possible with the persistent banding, and this could
easily make Beta`s isolated totals reach or exceed 20 inches. 42
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...
Beta (or what is left of Beta) will be working its way out of the
Southeast Texas area Wednesday night and Thursday. A drier
weather pattern looks to settle in behind this system for the
remainder of the week and into most of the weekend. We are still
seeing some model differences show up with their forecast of the
next cold fronts moving across Southeast Texas. Look for one to
possible edge across the area Sunday night followed by a second
one coming through on Tuesday. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS will be dealing with MVFR/IFR conditions overnight and possibly
throughout much of the day as periods of SHRA and possible TSRA related
to the outer bands of Tropical Storm Beta move across the area. Rains
could be heavy at times and winds could be gusty at times. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 67 78 64 80 / 70 70 50 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 71 79 69 82 / 80 80 60 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 83 74 83 / 80 70 70 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.
Storm Surge Warning for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
42/43/11/24
FXUS64 KHGX 220856
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020
...Very Dangerous Flash Flood Threat Continues to Develop...
.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
Tropical Storm Beta made landfall Monday evening and is centered to
the west of the Edna area early this morning. Rainbands associated
with Beta`s circulation, similar to the ones that developed Monday
evening and caused flash flooding in/around the South Houston/Pearland/
Friendswood/League City areas, have continued to develop early this
morning with some in and around the same locations that received 5 to
8 inches of rain yesterday. Lots of short term and high resolution
models have been consistent in developing additional rainbands during
the remaining overnight hours and out through at least the morning hours.
If this pans out, especially over already hard hit locations, dangerous
flooding and flash flooding will occur, including on area creeks, bayous
and rivers. Beta`s slow forecasted movement over the next 24 to 36 hours
will favor additional banding development. If this happens, especially
over the same areas over and over again, dangerous flooding and flash
flooding could continue on into tonight and Wednesday morning, including
in and near locations that have been experiencing some surge related
flooding from this system. Additional rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches
or more will be possible with the persistent banding, and this could
easily make Beta`s isolated totals reach or exceed 20 inches. 42
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...
Beta (or what is left of Beta) will be working its way out of the
Southeast Texas area Wednesday night and Thursday. A drier
weather pattern looks to settle in behind this system for the
remainder of the week and into most of the weekend. We are still
seeing some model differences show up with their forecast of the
next cold fronts moving across Southeast Texas. Look for one to
possible edge across the area Sunday night followed by a second
one coming through on Tuesday. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS will be dealing with MVFR/IFR conditions overnight and possibly
throughout much of the day as periods of SHRA and possible TSRA related
to the outer bands of Tropical Storm Beta move across the area. Rains
could be heavy at times and winds could be gusty at times. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 67 78 64 80 / 70 70 50 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 71 79 69 82 / 80 80 60 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 83 74 83 / 80 70 70 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.
Storm Surge Warning for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
42/43/11/24
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Euro has it riding more inland now all the way up coast we could have a problem on our hands
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3440
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Tomororw morning is a timeframe I would watch, especially with grounds fully saturated, some of the mesoscale models indicate we could see additional banding over the city and I think that is a large reason we are seeing the high risk from the WPC.
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How’s clear creek down there in Friendswood off 528 and 2351 areas?
This has the potential to get really bad if those core rains develop. Sheesh, did the weather channel vastly underestimate this storm with its 1”-2” rain totals for the area.
This has the potential to get really bad if those core rains develop. Sheesh, did the weather channel vastly underestimate this storm with its 1”-2” rain totals for the area.
In fairness, most of TWC seems like journalism students that have zero weather knowledge and need a platform to practice public speaking on TV