September 2020:

[Scott747]

Ejecting quickly out to the NE along the coast into sw la Thursday afternoon.

[Scott747]

12z Ukie is further west compared to the 0z run. Nears Baffin Bay before stalling and quickly lifting out to the NE.

[Scott747]

Bookmark that 12z GFS run. Doubt you will ever see something that perfectly traverses the entire and immediate Texas coast as a hurricane like that.

[davidiowx]

Welp whatever this becomes, it will be named Beta now that Alpha was just designated wayyyyy out there in the Atlantic near Portugal.

[TexasBreeze]

Already into the Greeks, didn't take long! There was lots of back and forth on other sites about naming that little Portugal system since yesterday.
Soon to be "Beta" will be offshore TX this coming week.

[Cpv17]

57 seems pretty confident this won’t impact us much over on storm2k lol hard to believe at this point.

[Cpv17]

Bookmark that 12z GFS run. Doubt you will ever see something that perfectly traverses the entire and immediate Texas coast as a hurricane like that.

Yeah, but hardly any rain inland? Weird. I guess everything is sheared off to the east or something. I mean I know the east side is the dirty side but I would think you would get more rain on the north side of the system than it just showed on the GFS.

[Rip76]

57 seems pretty confident this won’t impact us much over on storm2k lol hard to believe at this point.

I’m starting to lean that way as well.

[Cpv17]

57 seems pretty confident this won’t impact us much over on storm2k lol hard to believe at this point.

I’m starting to lean that way as well.

I think he believes there will be a lot of dry air ingested into the system from the north so the north side of the system won’t have much precip?

[davidiowx]

I do think there will be a very sharp gradient where the rain falls where it does not fall. That line could line up anywhere from offshore to further inland. Time will tell how far the trough can dig, its hard to predict how far they advance, especially this time of year.

[Cpv17]

I do think there will be a very sharp gradient where the rain falls where it does not fall. That line could line up anywhere from offshore to further inland. Time will tell how far the trough can dig, its hard to predict how far they advance, especially this time of year.

I think the Euro will show more rain on the north side than the GFS.

[DoctorMu]

Well it looks like we’re in play for this one:



My goodness, look at the rain. Holy cow!

Now that's a gradient!

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 even has plenty for your area, but Dr.Mu not as much. The widespread yellow and infamous pink color reminds me of something in the past, but at least most of that is offshore.
The Euro model takes it to the TX LA border, but still has plenty of rainfall inland. GFS does too on the coast and makes multiple landfalls.

Exactly. It could be a bust up here. Or a flood. But the potential for inundating rainfall in the Galveston to Clear Lake area could be absurd. Feet of rainfall.

Welcome to 2020.

[Scott747]

12z HWRF remains weak and n of the GFS.

Goes in near Port A on Monday as moderate TS moving slowly w.

[Rip76]

Man I just don’t see how this doesn’t get pulled off the East right now. Weird set up.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS is much stronger this run with a strong TS,weak cane slowly approaching Brownsville on Monday.

There is no cone. Just a large circle.

[Rip76]

Haha yeah

[DoctorMu]

I will say that the models and ensemble are now in remarkable agreement.

Welp. Going to enjoy this near Chamber of Commerce weather day: Cooler, drier, a little breezy, sunny...while it lasts.

[Scott747]

12z Euro thru hr 72 is further w and a little stronger. Strong TS,weak hurricane moving slowly n near Baffin Bay and Corpus.

[Cpv17]

12z HWRF remains weak and n of the GFS.

Goes in near Port A on Monday as moderate TS moving slowly w.

That model is very different from the globals. It has a ton of rain way further inland. Man that’s a lot of rain for us on that model. Geez!