Doesn’t really look all that promising for rain.
September 2020:
Well it looks like the WPC is going with the Euro:
Doesn’t really look all that promising for rain.
Doesn’t really look all that promising for rain.
And now big storms to my southwest, but now moving south. I may just stop watering and just set the yard on fire instead. Its a lost cause.
I just don't get it. Everytime something forms. It magically dodges my zip code and reforms on the other side. Or like right now there sre storms in almost every direction but they all moving away from the center.
Like me, outflow probably kills a lot your chances.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
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Dark clouds and thundering all around me for the last hr and I maybe got 3 sprinkles
Man, the Wharton area just got pounded. Power outages galore and a few inches of rain. Just missed me by about 5-10 miles.
NOAA and local KBTX hanging in there with 60s for lows Wed, Thursday, Friday. TWC and Accuweather Ouija board capitulated.
Wait till we get to winter and the models are forecasting an Artic blast with legit snow chances only to trend warmer and drier a couple days before it hits. Probably will happen.
I blame the on air mets hyping it up on ch13. Haha!
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TXWeatherMan
- Posts: 152
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 am
- Location: Montgomery TX
- Contact:
I knew a cold front this early in the year was too good to be true.
I got another .82” from today’s storm. And it’s 75 degrees outside (not 85 degrees!). Happy Labor Day. Enjoy a day of rest.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Labor Day weather briefing from Jeff:
Hopes for any sort of mid week cold front have all but just about vanished in the last 24 hours…it is early September after all and not early October. Just like with hurricane forecasting, looking at some of these more extreme model solutions 7-10 days out can lead you down the wrong path...so all these forecasts that have been put out showing lows in the 50’s late this week and highs near 80…doesn’t look likely and both lows and highs will need to be raised significantly.
Moisture remains over the region and with heating this morning, expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly driven by the seabreeze front. An upper level disturbance will approach from the south on Tuesday and this will likely help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over much of the area.
Frontal boundary approaches the area Wed-Fri, but does not look to move to the coast or offshore and it looks like the dry air and cooler temperatures never make it into the region. Nearby front along with pooled moisture and weak dynamics will support an increased rain chance during this period with daily chances of 30-50%. Nothing looks organized and with weak capping aloft and the front likely remaining well west of the area, think the seabreeze and heating may be a big player for rain chances than the actual frontal system.
By next weekend, the frontal system will wash out over central TX and broad low pressure may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico and bring deep tropical moisture toward the northwest Gulf coast. Will see how this feature evolves over the next several days and how much moisture is potentially pulled toward TX by next weekend.
Tropics:
TD 17 and TD 18 have formed overnight over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. Both of these systems are expected to move generally westward over the next 5 days, before turning more toward the WNW or NW by this weekend. Neither of these systems is expected to be a threat to any land areas through 5 days. An area of low pressure may develop off the US mid Atlantic coast late this week, but chances are currently near 30%.
Hopes for any sort of mid week cold front have all but just about vanished in the last 24 hours…it is early September after all and not early October. Just like with hurricane forecasting, looking at some of these more extreme model solutions 7-10 days out can lead you down the wrong path...so all these forecasts that have been put out showing lows in the 50’s late this week and highs near 80…doesn’t look likely and both lows and highs will need to be raised significantly.
Moisture remains over the region and with heating this morning, expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly driven by the seabreeze front. An upper level disturbance will approach from the south on Tuesday and this will likely help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over much of the area.
Frontal boundary approaches the area Wed-Fri, but does not look to move to the coast or offshore and it looks like the dry air and cooler temperatures never make it into the region. Nearby front along with pooled moisture and weak dynamics will support an increased rain chance during this period with daily chances of 30-50%. Nothing looks organized and with weak capping aloft and the front likely remaining well west of the area, think the seabreeze and heating may be a big player for rain chances than the actual frontal system.
By next weekend, the frontal system will wash out over central TX and broad low pressure may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico and bring deep tropical moisture toward the northwest Gulf coast. Will see how this feature evolves over the next several days and how much moisture is potentially pulled toward TX by next weekend.
Tropics:
TD 17 and TD 18 have formed overnight over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. Both of these systems are expected to move generally westward over the next 5 days, before turning more toward the WNW or NW by this weekend. Neither of these systems is expected to be a threat to any land areas through 5 days. An area of low pressure may develop off the US mid Atlantic coast late this week, but chances are currently near 30%.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
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So now its looking like the front may stall to the north and not even make it here
Thats what happens when everyone hypes up the cold front.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions with southeasterly flow is anticipated through the
period. Like the past few days, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the coast in the
morning, potentially impacting GLS and LBX, then spread inland
through the afternoon. Only terminal that may not see any storms
will be CLL, but even then it could be possible by the late
afternoon/early evening. Activity dies down after sunset with
light southeasterly winds continuing.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]...
Labor Day will be a lot like the few days before hand with highs in
the mid 90s, heat indices in the 100-106 degree range, and scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-level ridging will weaken/slide
southeastward today, which will mean that the coverage of the
showers could be a bit wider today than yesterday. PWATs remain
1.85 to 2 inches today, and with not much of a steering flow to
speak of, expect these showers to be slow movers that produce
locally heavy rainfall. The showers will first develop near
Galveston Bay this morning, then spread inland with the sea breeze
through the afternoon, and by the early evening be popping up all
across the area. Precipitation chances continue on Tuesday as PVA
increases across the area due to a vort max moving in from the
Gulf. Coverage could be a bit wider and further inland on Tuesday
compared to the past couple of days, but stronger onshore flow
should help move the storms once they form. This will limit the
localized minor street flooding thats occurred the past few days
where the storms form. Not much change in the temperatures
expected on Tuesday compared to the past few days.
Fowler
.Long Term [Wednesday through Sunday]...
A deep upper level low over Utah will get cut off from the main flow
and remain nearly stationary through Thursday before moving off to
the NE on Friday. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop
over the Permian Basin by Tuesday night and move slowly northeast to
OK by early Thursday. The low will pull a cold front into the state
but since the system has lost all upper level support and pressure
rises which looked so promising yesterday, look some what lackluster
today. The front will struggle to cross SE TX and will sluggishly
cross the region early Friday. PW values will remain near or above
2.00 inches Wed-Fri as the front nears the area but jet dynamics
look meager and forecast soundings show weak capping near 850 mb.
That said, convective temperatures look reachable all three days and
soundings do show intermittent periods where the moisture profile
looks saturated. Will only carry chance PoPs for now as organized
precipitation looks unlikely unless mesoscale influences take over.
The air mass on Friday does not look all that cool behind the front
on Friday. 850 mb temperatures remained nearly stationary around
18.0 C so not much day to day change in temperatures expected. Have
raised MaxT grids to reflect the warmer 850 temps. Made significant
increases to MinT values as the drier air never really gets here and
sfc dew points remain in the 70`s so night time low temps will
remain in the 70`s inland and lower 80`s coast.
A wedge of slightly drier air could filter into SE Texas for
Saturday morning as high pressure over the Great Lakes strengthens
and ridges into the region. Drying will be short lived as a broad
area of low pressure develops over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Sfc
winds will become NE in response to the high pressure to the north
and the developing area of low pressure to the south. An inverted
upper level trough will also approach the western Gulf of Mexico and
this feature will bring increasing rain chances for Sunday into the
early part of next week. 43
.MARINE...
Light onshore flow is expected today with showers and thunderstorms
popping up in Galveston Bay by mid-morning. Activity will end in
the early afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each day
through the upcoming week. The onshore flow strengthens Tuesday
into Wednesday approaching caution flag criteria. The front that
was supposed to be moving into the waters midweek no longer appear
to be making its way to the coast, so no longer expecting the
strong offshore flow Thursday into Friday. Instead, expect
moderate northeasterly flow to develop on Thursday and continue
through the weekend.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 74 90 73 86 / 20 10 40 30 50
Houston (IAH) 97 77 94 76 90 / 50 10 30 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 82 89 / 20 10 40 30 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 071139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions with southeasterly flow is anticipated through the
period. Like the past few days, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the coast in the
morning, potentially impacting GLS and LBX, then spread inland
through the afternoon. Only terminal that may not see any storms
will be CLL, but even then it could be possible by the late
afternoon/early evening. Activity dies down after sunset with
light southeasterly winds continuing.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]...
Labor Day will be a lot like the few days before hand with highs in
the mid 90s, heat indices in the 100-106 degree range, and scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-level ridging will weaken/slide
southeastward today, which will mean that the coverage of the
showers could be a bit wider today than yesterday. PWATs remain
1.85 to 2 inches today, and with not much of a steering flow to
speak of, expect these showers to be slow movers that produce
locally heavy rainfall. The showers will first develop near
Galveston Bay this morning, then spread inland with the sea breeze
through the afternoon, and by the early evening be popping up all
across the area. Precipitation chances continue on Tuesday as PVA
increases across the area due to a vort max moving in from the
Gulf. Coverage could be a bit wider and further inland on Tuesday
compared to the past couple of days, but stronger onshore flow
should help move the storms once they form. This will limit the
localized minor street flooding thats occurred the past few days
where the storms form. Not much change in the temperatures
expected on Tuesday compared to the past few days.
Fowler
.Long Term [Wednesday through Sunday]...
A deep upper level low over Utah will get cut off from the main flow
and remain nearly stationary through Thursday before moving off to
the NE on Friday. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop
over the Permian Basin by Tuesday night and move slowly northeast to
OK by early Thursday. The low will pull a cold front into the state
but since the system has lost all upper level support and pressure
rises which looked so promising yesterday, look some what lackluster
today. The front will struggle to cross SE TX and will sluggishly
cross the region early Friday. PW values will remain near or above
2.00 inches Wed-Fri as the front nears the area but jet dynamics
look meager and forecast soundings show weak capping near 850 mb.
That said, convective temperatures look reachable all three days and
soundings do show intermittent periods where the moisture profile
looks saturated. Will only carry chance PoPs for now as organized
precipitation looks unlikely unless mesoscale influences take over.
The air mass on Friday does not look all that cool behind the front
on Friday. 850 mb temperatures remained nearly stationary around
18.0 C so not much day to day change in temperatures expected. Have
raised MaxT grids to reflect the warmer 850 temps. Made significant
increases to MinT values as the drier air never really gets here and
sfc dew points remain in the 70`s so night time low temps will
remain in the 70`s inland and lower 80`s coast.
A wedge of slightly drier air could filter into SE Texas for
Saturday morning as high pressure over the Great Lakes strengthens
and ridges into the region. Drying will be short lived as a broad
area of low pressure develops over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Sfc
winds will become NE in response to the high pressure to the north
and the developing area of low pressure to the south. An inverted
upper level trough will also approach the western Gulf of Mexico and
this feature will bring increasing rain chances for Sunday into the
early part of next week. 43
.MARINE...
Light onshore flow is expected today with showers and thunderstorms
popping up in Galveston Bay by mid-morning. Activity will end in
the early afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each day
through the upcoming week. The onshore flow strengthens Tuesday
into Wednesday approaching caution flag criteria. The front that
was supposed to be moving into the waters midweek no longer appear
to be making its way to the coast, so no longer expecting the
strong offshore flow Thursday into Friday. Instead, expect
moderate northeasterly flow to develop on Thursday and continue
through the weekend.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 74 90 73 86 / 20 10 40 30 50
Houston (IAH) 97 77 94 76 90 / 50 10 30 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 82 89 / 20 10 40 30 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Looks like HGX radar is down?
2020 rages on....
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
What a slap in the face!lol Good news is we are in September and that first decent front will be here sooner than later.