September 2020:
All that rain to the north sure looks nice
To sleep, perchance to dream...JDsGN wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:22 pmMan I want to believe so badly but I just can't do it.redneckweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:19 pm GFS has actually trended colder with next weeks front. Someone will be in here shortly to post up some maps. Gonna need a light jacket if GFS holds!
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Kingwood36
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Did it push the cold front back till Saturday the 12th?DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:36 pmTo sleep, perchance to dream...JDsGN wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:22 pmMan I want to believe so badly but I just can't do it.redneckweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:19 pm GFS has actually trended colder with next weeks front. Someone will be in here shortly to post up some maps. Gonna need a light jacket if GFS holds!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
No, just reinforces it. Original cold front comes in on Wednesday.
Team #NeverSummer
Mike: I’m so glad you are back home and things are mostly OK.
Glad to hear things will be getting back to normal. Laura zagged right in time for Texas. T&P for those still in the the Lake Charles area. We have some old friends that are going to need a partial rebuild in LC.
Glad to hear y’all are in one piece. Godspeed with recovery/repairs.
My fam in SW La got some damage, but all are ok.
What a mess this storm was.
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tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the day with scattered showers
and thunderstorms continuing through this evening. The shower
activity may wane briefly during the late morning, but then VCTS
returns to all TAF sites by the early afternoon. Shower activity
will end first along the coast by the late afternoon, then by the
evening between HOU/SGR up through CXO, and then continue for CLL
and UTS through the late evening. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs
could happen if a thunderstorm moves directly over a terminal,
and then again towards day break on Saturday.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday]...
The upper level low stuck over Texas between high pressures to the
west(over the Great Basin) and to the east (over the Southeast US)
will remain over east Texas through the short term period while
gradually getting weaker. This upper level low combined with PWATs
of around 2 to 2.25 inches and daytime heating will lead to the
chance of showers or thunderstorms through the day today. CAM
guidance keeps the activity fairly scattered across the entire
area through the mid afternoon, then has the activity congeal
across the northern third of the area by this evening. Activity
wanes through the late evening with the loss of daytime heating
and all shower activity should end by midnight. Then we repeat the
same shower activity on Saturday as PWATs remain around 2 inches.
However, there is one difference in the pattern on Saturday
compared to today relative to the upper level low. This low will
be weakening and retrograding a bit back to the west through the
day on Saturday with the upper level ridge to the east expanding
across the Gulf. This could lead to slightly less coverage of
storms along the coast on Saturday compared to today.
Nevertheless, still expecting a chance of thunderstorms for most
the area on Saturday.
Thanks to the upper level low bringing in increased cloud coverage
through the day, temperatures today and Saturday will be around
normal. Daytime highs will be in the low 90s today, and whatever you
get to today, add a degree or two for Saturday`s high temperature as
heights rise with the weakening upperlevel low/intruding high
from the east. Overnight lows will still be near record warmth
through the period as dew points remain high. Though Galveston
this morning may end the streak of all time record high minimum
temperatures its been seeing the past few days as a well placed
shower could briefly bring the temperature down a few degrees.
Heat indices will continue to climb into the triple digits today
and Saturday, but generally remain below heat advisory criteria.
Fowler
.MARINE...
High pressure to the north will bring light east to northeasterly
flow today through the weekend along with seas generally two to four
feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the
overnight to early morning periods through the weekend as well. The
high pressure to the north slides eastward late Sunday into Monday
bringing southeasterly flow back to the region which will continue
through midweek. Winds and seas may increase to near Caution flag
criteria by midweek ahead of an approaching boundary, however
confidence remains low on whether this boundary makes it to the
coast or not.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 73 90 74 92 / 50 20 70 20 30
Houston (IAH) 93 76 94 77 95 / 50 30 40 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 83 93 / 40 10 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 041141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the day with scattered showers
and thunderstorms continuing through this evening. The shower
activity may wane briefly during the late morning, but then VCTS
returns to all TAF sites by the early afternoon. Shower activity
will end first along the coast by the late afternoon, then by the
evening between HOU/SGR up through CXO, and then continue for CLL
and UTS through the late evening. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs
could happen if a thunderstorm moves directly over a terminal,
and then again towards day break on Saturday.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday]...
The upper level low stuck over Texas between high pressures to the
west(over the Great Basin) and to the east (over the Southeast US)
will remain over east Texas through the short term period while
gradually getting weaker. This upper level low combined with PWATs
of around 2 to 2.25 inches and daytime heating will lead to the
chance of showers or thunderstorms through the day today. CAM
guidance keeps the activity fairly scattered across the entire
area through the mid afternoon, then has the activity congeal
across the northern third of the area by this evening. Activity
wanes through the late evening with the loss of daytime heating
and all shower activity should end by midnight. Then we repeat the
same shower activity on Saturday as PWATs remain around 2 inches.
However, there is one difference in the pattern on Saturday
compared to today relative to the upper level low. This low will
be weakening and retrograding a bit back to the west through the
day on Saturday with the upper level ridge to the east expanding
across the Gulf. This could lead to slightly less coverage of
storms along the coast on Saturday compared to today.
Nevertheless, still expecting a chance of thunderstorms for most
the area on Saturday.
Thanks to the upper level low bringing in increased cloud coverage
through the day, temperatures today and Saturday will be around
normal. Daytime highs will be in the low 90s today, and whatever you
get to today, add a degree or two for Saturday`s high temperature as
heights rise with the weakening upperlevel low/intruding high
from the east. Overnight lows will still be near record warmth
through the period as dew points remain high. Though Galveston
this morning may end the streak of all time record high minimum
temperatures its been seeing the past few days as a well placed
shower could briefly bring the temperature down a few degrees.
Heat indices will continue to climb into the triple digits today
and Saturday, but generally remain below heat advisory criteria.
Fowler
.MARINE...
High pressure to the north will bring light east to northeasterly
flow today through the weekend along with seas generally two to four
feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the
overnight to early morning periods through the weekend as well. The
high pressure to the north slides eastward late Sunday into Monday
bringing southeasterly flow back to the region which will continue
through midweek. Winds and seas may increase to near Caution flag
criteria by midweek ahead of an approaching boundary, however
confidence remains low on whether this boundary makes it to the
coast or not.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 73 90 74 92 / 50 20 70 20 30
Houston (IAH) 93 76 94 77 95 / 50 30 40 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 83 93 / 40 10 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Interesting. I had no idea there was an “upper level low” in the vicinity. I thought we were just looking at old outflows and a washed-out frontal boundary.
Side note: take a look at the Caribbean
Side note: take a look at the Caribbean
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Kingwood36
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Kingwood36
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Texaspirate11
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Oh I hope this diminishes our cane chances for the rest of the season!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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redneckweather
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- Location: Montgomery, Texas
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GFS still on board with a big front mid next week we reinforcing shots after. I'm having a hard time finding any 90 degree readings anywhere in Southeast Texas for the entire run after the front hits. Man....fingers crossed.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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More tingles down the leg. Make it so Mother Nature!
Team #NeverSummer