September 2020:
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Ridge is stronger and beta is slower
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Maybe about to start the turn West?
I said that it was a Harvey track on the Euro but it really doesn’t have much rain with it according to the 0z Euro. Precip totals are nothing close to what I thought they’d be. I don’t trust that. Seems really weird.
Models are having Beta stall similar to Harvey.
I’d say Beta needs to start making that turn soon or its going to be NE of the track again. When is the next Recon? Tropical tidbits isn’t showing anything about it.
Edit: Recon is on its way.
Edit: Recon is on its way.
Yes indeed tireman4. Beta is a sheared mess right now but shear looks to be dropping but dry air may be an issue per WV
- Texaspirate11
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Im rooting for dry air
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- Katdaddy
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Cool dry air, CA smoke, and Beta being slammed off the NE away from the Upper TX Coast this morning toward FL with no effects................yeah wishful thinking but this story is ongoing with several chapters today. We must remain tropical weather aware and hopefully Air Force Recon will have some good new later today.
The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting..
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So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?
Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..
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Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.
No worries!Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:16 amI read something wrong my bad
Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead
Which is odd considering the storms loops around Houston then goes NE a bit just to turn back around over Houston again.. but the last frame you can see trouble in approaching from the Yucatan.. yes yes, it’s way far out into October so it’s just for entertainment
Yup. And this more northerly component is potentially bad news for the upper Texas coast depending on where it slows down and how stacked it is once beta nears the coast.
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