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Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:10 pm
by don
Lol these models... 18z GFS shows Marco as a naked swirl riding the Louisiana coast into southeast Texas similar to last nights EURO run.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:12 pm
by Scott747
The GFS also has Laura tracking further w thru hr 90. Looking closer to central or w la.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:16 pm
by Stormlover2020
I have a feeling this will be a close close call
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:23 pm
by cperk
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:16 pm
I have a feeling this will be a close close call
Yeah I don’t think we’re clear of Laura.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:25 pm
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:26 pm
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:13 pm
Yes. A weaker storm would go more west.
I dont understand this. If there is a high pressure system to the east, why would a weaker storm go more west? I always thought stronger storms get pushed by ridges more than weak ones
Stronger storms are more influenced by the steering currents than weaker ones. They’re basically a lot more sensitive and can feel ridges/troughs from miles upon miles away. Something like that.
Yep - Stronger storms have high pressure overhead, which bounces or feels it's way around ridges and towards troughs. A weak, sheared off system is more affected by lower altitude winds.
Having said that, I would not place my bets yet either either Marco or Laura yet.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:25 pm
by Tx2005
When is Laura expected to clear Cuba? I imagine it’s going to be hard to get a good read on Laura’s track until then.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:26 pm
by Andrew
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:25 pm
When is Laura expected to clear Cuba? I imagine it’s going to be hard to get a good read on Laura’s track until then.
Monday afternoon.
Looks like the GFS 18z run shifted west some.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:31 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:18 pm
Wow. I haven’t seen a shift like that in a very long time. Any bets after all this, we don’t get a drop of rain from either system?
Marco is still projected to turn west after landfall. Have not given up yet, although a bust is probable.
If Marco turns 100 miles earlier, we all could get very wet.
...and on cue, there's the GFS shift.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:33 pm
by DoctorMu
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:07 pm
18z GFS obliterates Marco on approach to Louisiana and moves what's left to the w.
A small margin of error is making a huge difference in landfall location. The models have been like a drunk handling a firehose...
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:41 pm
by tireman4
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:07 pm
18z GFS obliterates Marco on approach to Louisiana and moves what's left to the w.
A small margin of error is making a huge difference in landfall location. The models have been like a drunk handling a firehose...
A chuckle before my 6 mile run. Thanks as always to the good Doctor in the house.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:19 pm
by Cpv17
I don’t think we’re out of the clear for either system. I don’t really think the models have a good handle on either of these systems.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:36 pm
by djjordan
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:07 pm
18z GFS obliterates Marco on approach to Louisiana and moves what's left to the w.
A small margin of error is making a huge difference in landfall location. The models have been like a drunk handling a firehose...
LOL
That's the best analogy I've heard about the models in a long long time. These models have been terrible all year so I'm going to keep watching just like everyone should be.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:37 pm
by tireman4
European 18 Z Laura
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:44 pm
by Kingwood36
tireman4 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:37 pm
European 18 Z Laura
Well that's intriguing
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:45 pm
by Stormlover2020
That was yesterday’s
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:47 pm
by jerryh421
tireman4 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:37 pm
European 18 Z Laura
This is from yesterday’s run! Has today’s started yet?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:48 pm
by Cpv17
I wouldn’t be surprised to even see a possible wsw movement with Marco as it nears the coast of Louisiana.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:50 pm
by Stormlover2020
Hmon cat 5 headed to Galveston
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:51 pm
by Tx2005
I believe these are from 12z today.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:52 pm
by Tx2005
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:50 pm
Hmon cat 5 headed to Galveston
If I remember correctly, the hmon has been up and down the Texas coast over the past few runs. It had a Galveston hit at 0z, middle tx coast at 6z, and tx/mex border at 12z.