Wx Infinity Forums

Feeling your pain, Jason: blue dot.

Yeah, right now it looks like everything may skirt west of me. For some reason, the cells up towards Huntsville and all along 45 are falling apart, while storms to the west are increasing in coverage and intensity.

It's hot here too - 95℉ right now.

Just another day in SE Texas...

Feisty storm near Pearland and Manvel

I’m kinda surprised but actually the next 3 days rain chances look kinda decent.

Yeah, and they raised chances today up to 40%. Not bad for August.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:54 am Yeah, and they raised chances today up to 40%. Not bad for August.

I’m surprised it’s that high. Not seeing anything on the meso models to back that up. Then again I didn’t think yesterday’s storms we’re gonna happen either.

I’m monitoring the showers/disturbance to the NW. If it’s raining in Abilene in August, it should be able to rain here, right?

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:19 pm I’m monitoring the showers/disturbance to the NW. If it’s raining in Abilene in August, it should be able to rain here, right?

Not at your house.

The Storm Radar app shows nothing, anywhere at all, until the end of the run (7:30pm).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with light and at
times VRB winds prevailing through Tue. A few SHRA or TSRA could develop late this afternoon into evening, as an upper level shortwave moves across the CWA. A cluster of storms may develop to our NW and could move south southeastward into the local area as well. For this reason, kept the VCTS in this forecast package.

If activity does develop, it should dissipate by around 03Z
tonight. Thereafter, skies clearing and winds will continue light
and VRB through the rest of the period

Showers motoring through the Hill country, but they'll probably collapse before a Cameron to LaGrange line.

Implosion at the Brazos Co. line.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.AVIATION...

VFR. Morning mid levels clouds should be replace with some high levels
clouds moving into the area from the north. Continue to carry VCTS for
possible SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon. Most activity should
dissipate early this evening. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...

A weak east to southeast moving shortwave (evident on water vapor satellite
imagery) is moving into Southeast Texas early this morning. Some high
resolution models have been insisting on possible isolated shower development
before or shortly after sunrise, maybe associated with the interaction
of the shortwave and some leftover boundaries from yesterday evening`s
activity. Will continue to monitor. Still looking like the day`s best
shower and thunderstorm chances will come beginning in the mid to late
afternoon hours when the low to mid 90s convective temperatures are
reached, and they will possible continue into the early evening hours.
Might get some brief/strong wind gusts with stronger activity. Tonight
through Wednesday morning should stay on the quiet side, then look
for the area`s next chance of showers and thunderstorms coming mainly
in the afternoon through early evening hours during peak heating time.
Some activity could linger on into Wednesday night.

Peak heat index values for both today and tomorrow will mainly be in
a 100-105 range. 42

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...

Expect typical summer-time weather through the long term period for
Southeast Texas with max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
lows in the mid to upper 70s. There will be lingering showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area Wednesday night as
a shortwave rounds the edge of the upper level ridge located over
the Desert Southwest. The aforementioned upper level ridge will
slowly move eastward and be centered over Texas by Friday. As it
does so, it becomes less amplified across CONUS and more zonal flow
takes over through the end of the long term period. Precipitation
chances through the rest of the period will be from the typical
isolated showers and thunderstorms that form along the sea breeze
each afternoon thanks to daytime heating pretty much every day.

Fowler

MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds and low seas can be expected for much
of the area this week. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible mainly in the afternoon through early
evening hours each day. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 75 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 76 96 77 96 / 30 20 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 81 91 81 90 / 30 20 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Both the GFS & GFS Para have been showing something brewing in the w. Caribbean for about 4 consecutive runs now but it’s two weeks out. Fantasy land for now.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 6956477441

Yikes!

Some showers popping up to the north and drifting south...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:45 pm Some showers popping up to the north and drifting south...

watching, but think it will miss us in Cypress - better chances for you though !

The usual split....

Powerful storms unexpected here in Beaumont. Pouring! Power just went out. And im still working from home, lol... I guess im done for the day.