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cperk wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:17 pm And we already have another friend coming off the coast of Africa.

I have a bad feeling that 2020 will be a terrible season. It is just heating up.

Reading on Levi Cowan's twitter that recon is showing it up to 155 mph. 2 mph from a 5.

Why not just call 155 mph a Cat 5, it's close enough.

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:48 pm Why not just call 155 mph a Cat 5, it's close enough.

On the east side, it is.

Did we get a wobble west?

Per NWS Lake Charles:
30-40 mph winds now in Beaumont. 60 mph in Cameron. National Weather Service predicts landfall 1-2am in LA between Port Arthur and Cameron.
Surge can be expected in Jefferson County around 8am and then later in the day when tide rises again. Pine Island Bayou and Village Creek areas should keep an eye on those areas.
Eye is 75 miles from Port Arthur and Lake Charles.

Hi everyone. Long time lurker here and first time posting. I’ve always been fascinated by weather and I usually frequent this forum (and previously the KHOU forum) whenever there is the possibility of winter weather or hurricanes.

I just want to thank all of the pro meteorologists and experts who contribute to this board. You guys are awesome. I’ve learned so much reading this forum over the years.

A few thoughts...

I think the NHC deserves some props with the forecast for Laura. The forecast seemed pretty erratic about a week ago with Laura, and the Marco forecast turned out changing way too much. BUT...the past few days have been pretty accurate in regards to Laura’s landfall, and they stuck to their guns, even though there was chatter from a lot of people, even pros, criticizing them for not shifting the cone westward to match the ensemble models.

Another thing on my mind tonight...I’m shocked that the westward edge of the precipitation is so far from Houston with this hurricane, considering where it’s making landfall. Back in 2005, I lived in NW Houston (further weather than I do now) and I can remember being so scared that night with the noise from all the wind and rain outside. For those of who you may not remember, I encourage you to google “Hurricane Rita radar image” and look at how massively large the rain and wind field was with that storm. Laura is so tiny compared to Rita, though obviously much stronger at her core. It’s just so interesting how hurricanes vary so much in size and wind field, regardless of their strength.

I really feel for the people in southwest Louisiana. This is going to be catastrophic for them. Those of us here in Houston area should all be so thankful that we’ve been spared from this devastation.

gent500 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm Hi everyone. Long time lurker here and first time posting. I’ve always been fascinated by weather and I usually frequent this forum (and previously the KHOU forum) whenever there is the possibility of winter weather or hurricanes.

I just want to thank all of the pro meteorologists and experts who contribute to this board. You guys are awesome. I’ve learned so much reading this forum over the years.

A few thoughts...

I think the NHC deserves some props with the forecast for Laura. The forecast seemed pretty erratic about a week ago with Laura, and the Marco forecast turned out changing way too much. BUT...the past few days have been pretty accurate in regards to Laura’s landfall, and they stuck to their guns, even though there was chatter from a lot of people, even pros, criticizing them for not shifting the cone westward to match the ensemble models.

Another thing on my mind tonight...I’m shocked that the westward edge of the precipitation is so far from Houston with this hurricane, considering where it’s making landfall. Back in 2005, I lived in NW Houston (further weather than I do now) and I can remember being so scared that night with the noise from all the wind and rain outside. For those of who you may not remember, I encourage you to google “Hurricane Rita radar image” and look at how massively large the rain and wind field was with that storm. Laura is so tiny compared to Rita, though obviously much stronger at her core. It’s just so interesting how hurricanes vary so much in size and wind field, regardless of their strength.

I really feel for the people in southwest Louisiana. This is going to be catastrophic for them. Those of us here in Houston area should all be so thankful that we’ve been spared from this devastation.

Hey Gen500, glad you found the new board. The NHC did a fantastic job of forecasting this system and were nearly right on. We really missed a bullet with this one. Hoepefully you stick around for the rest of the seasons as we move into the rest of hurricane season, fall, and then winter precipitation!

Lake Charles is getting absolutely pounded right now

https://twitter.com/iCyclone

Josh found safe lodging and is keeping peeps updated regularly, good to see. Heart-wrenching destruction for everyone in Laura's path, they will need all the help, care and compassion we can muster.

Be Safe
Be Strong
Be Kind

Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:33 am

gent500 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm Hi everyone. Long time lurker here and first time posting. I’ve always been fascinated by weather and I usually frequent this forum (and previously the KHOU forum) whenever there is the possibility of winter weather or hurricanes.

I just want to thank all of the pro meteorologists and experts who contribute to this board. You guys are awesome. I’ve learned so much reading this forum over the years.

A few thoughts...

I think the NHC deserves some props with the forecast for Laura. The forecast seemed pretty erratic about a week ago with Laura, and the Marco forecast turned out changing way too much. BUT...the past few days have been pretty accurate in regards to Laura’s landfall, and they stuck to their guns, even though there was chatter from a lot of people, even pros, criticizing them for not shifting the cone westward to match the ensemble models.

Another thing on my mind tonight...I’m shocked that the westward edge of the precipitation is so far from Houston with this hurricane, considering where it’s making landfall. Back in 2005, I lived in NW Houston (further weather than I do now) and I can remember being so scared that night with the noise from all the wind and rain outside. For those of who you may not remember, I encourage you to google “Hurricane Rita radar image” and look at how massively large the rain and wind field was with that storm. Laura is so tiny compared to Rita, though obviously much stronger at her core. It’s just so interesting how hurricanes vary so much in size and wind field, regardless of their strength.

I really feel for the people in southwest Louisiana. This is going to be catastrophic for them. Those of us here in Houston area should all be so thankful that we’ve been spared from this devastation.

Hey Gen500, glad you found the new board. The NHC did a fantastic job of forecasting this system and were nearly right on. We really missed a bullet with this one. Hoepefully you stick around for the rest of the seasons as we move into the rest of hurricane season, fall, and then winter precipitation!

Yeah they ended up being right and that's great but I do not believe it is the right way to go about it.. I really think it should be more about discussing all of the possible outcomes, what variables can shift that might change those outcomes, and what is the probability of these various outcomes. You don't have to scare everyone while also informing them. People can be informed without causing panic. I think there is too much effort made to nail the forecast and get the forecast right. To me they clearly drew a line around the tropical models and kept intensity in the mean of the models. The tropical models deserve the congratulations here not the NHC. Just my opinion

Well the Houston/Galveston area was blessed to have dodged Laura and my thoughts and prayers go out to the people of E Texas and SW Louisiana and beyond.I would also like to take a moment to say how fortunate we are to have a forum like this and hats off to the pro-mets who loan their precious time to this board during a time we really needed it and to all the other forum members great job now lets get some rest cause i think we may be back here doing it again soon.

Well, from initial indications we have have dodged a huge bullet in Orange. NO flooding that I'm aware of. The few videos I've seen from this morning indicate normal hurricane damage (trees down, etc) but nothing extensive or catastrophic. Video of our main street downtown look good. Still waiting from news on homes from my neighborhood but from what I've heard and seen looks like mostly trees across roads. Hope to know more in a few hours.

The Houston/Galveston Metro Area dodge a bullet. I want to personally thank all on this board who have and continue to contribute. For the pro and amateur mets, a hearty thank you. This is the third inning of a nine inning game ( or 20 inning like Jason stated). We are on the letter M and the peak month is September, the heart of the Cape Verde season. Be aware. Be vigilant. You have your kits ready. You have your plan worked out.Think of this as a Hurricane Preparedness drill. Our heart and prayers go out to the folks in SWLA and Lake Charles.

Too close for comfort. Hopefully its a wakeup call for folks over here that were not in Houston for Ike how crazy this can get in a hurry.

Snakeswx wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:50 am

Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:33 am

gent500 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm Hi everyone. Long time lurker here and first time posting. I’ve always been fascinated by weather and I usually frequent this forum (and previously the KHOU forum) whenever there is the possibility of winter weather or hurricanes.

I just want to thank all of the pro meteorologists and experts who contribute to this board. You guys are awesome. I’ve learned so much reading this forum over the years.

A few thoughts...

I think the NHC deserves some props with the forecast for Laura. The forecast seemed pretty erratic about a week ago with Laura, and the Marco forecast turned out changing way too much. BUT...the past few days have been pretty accurate in regards to Laura’s landfall, and they stuck to their guns, even though there was chatter from a lot of people, even pros, criticizing them for not shifting the cone westward to match the ensemble models.

Another thing on my mind tonight...I’m shocked that the westward edge of the precipitation is so far from Houston with this hurricane, considering where it’s making landfall. Back in 2005, I lived in NW Houston (further weather than I do now) and I can remember being so scared that night with the noise from all the wind and rain outside. For those of who you may not remember, I encourage you to google “Hurricane Rita radar image” and look at how massively large the rain and wind field was with that storm. Laura is so tiny compared to Rita, though obviously much stronger at her core. It’s just so interesting how hurricanes vary so much in size and wind field, regardless of their strength.

I really feel for the people in southwest Louisiana. This is going to be catastrophic for them. Those of us here in Houston area should all be so thankful that we’ve been spared from this devastation.

Hey Gen500, glad you found the new board. The NHC did a fantastic job of forecasting this system and were nearly right on. We really missed a bullet with this one. Hoepefully you stick around for the rest of the seasons as we move into the rest of hurricane season, fall, and then winter precipitation!

Yeah they ended up being right and that's great but I do not believe it is the right way to go about it.. I really think it should be more about discussing all of the possible outcomes, what variables can shift that might change those outcomes, and what is the probability of these various outcomes. You don't have to scare everyone while also informing them. People can be informed without causing panic. I think there is too much effort made to nail the forecast and get the forecast right. To me they clearly drew a line around the tropical models and kept intensity in the mean of the models. The tropical models deserve the congratulations here not the NHC. Just my opinion

Actually your post points out the "partnership" between the NHC, NWS and places like our very own Weather Forum as well as media. The NHC forecasters must write a discussion every 6 hours in the full package Advisories providing reasoning for their decisions/forecast expectations. It is up to the partners to provide accurate, reliable and factual information that the general non weather savvy public can utilize in making decisions to protect their lives and property and that of their families, friends and neighbors. One of our main missions on th Weather Community is to always strive to provide accurate, factual and reliable information...to be that TRUSTED source we strive to be. Weather forecasting will never be an exact science by its very nature. Technology and sensible reasoning skills have improved greatly in the last 10 years. Since Rita and the mass evacuation debacle, those unexpected turns in that forecast have become much more reliable. Forecast tracks are certainly far better since Hurricane Rita. Below is an image of the NHC track forecast while Laura was over Cuba. The green line is the actual track that Laura took. The official
track days out ended up about a mile off. I'd say that's impressive! Intensity forecasts still need work though. We are very fortunate to have the ability, the expertise of Meteorologists, very knowledgeable folks and information such as model guidance images to discuss and show the information, explore the possibilities at great lengths, and then help spread the word. I personally want to thank each of you that contributed to our days of discussions and welcome back many old members from years past! We're glad you found us again and get some rest! We've got about 6 to 8 more weeks of potential tropical troubles in our neck of the woods!

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:18 pm Wow. I haven’t seen a shift like that in a very long time. Any bets after all this, we don’t get a drop of rain from either system?

Back to our regularly scheduled programming. Not a drop here from either storm.

In all seriousness, thanks to everyone here on the board. It's been a roller coaster for the last couple of weeks....and it's still only August.

Prayers for those off to the east.

Lake Charles radar isn't just damaged. Its gone.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaStormTrac ... 5405805570

I guess that proves God does like to golf.

Before the tee shot.


After:


Last thing it saw:

cperk wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:22 am Well the Houston/Galveston area was blessed to have dodged Laura and my thoughts and prayers go out to the people of E Texas and SW Louisiana and beyond.I would also like to take a moment to say how fortunate we are to have a forum like this and hats off to the pro-mets who loan their precious time to this board during a time we really needed it and to all the other forum members great job now lets get some rest cause i think we may be back here doing it again soon.

P.S. I forgot to thank our amateur mets your value to this board is immense.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:01 am Lake Charles radar isn't just damaged. Its gone.

Last thing it saw:

"Yep, this one's gonna hurt."

And that's roughly 30 miles inland. Let that sink in.

Map Showing All Category 4 and 5 Landfalls Since 1851