Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:02 pm
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August 2020:
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:04 pm
GFS a smidge to the w. Wouldn't say it's meaningful.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:07 pm
It does look a bit west and 952 millibars which is knocking on cat 4 right?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:08 pm
It will have to be. We're running out of tomorrows. One more, and we're nowcasting a GoM 'Cane.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:54 pmYes sir! Tomorrow will be a very important day as well... for both intensity and track as it relates to intensity.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:47 pmDoc Neil states that 10 to 15 mph is the optimal limit for RI. Beyond that it tough due the dynamics involved for a quick ramp up. My hunch would be a slowing down as it approaches the NW Gulf and the expected turn to the N as it move toward the Coast. We'll have plenty of time to work out those details tomorrow into Wednesday.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:40 pm
Interesting that you “say” that... there was some talk yesterday on Twitter about most-desirable speed for RI. Consensus was a 10-15 (maybe faster?) MPH speed is fine as long as system remains vertically stacked, etc. But, 20 may be pushing it.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:16 pm
Cameron, Sabine Pass - GFS
Historically the Euro is weighted more than GFS...and we have multiple ensembles leaning left of the Sabine Pass.
Split in the middle - McFaddin Nat'l Wildlife Refuge just west of Port Arthur.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:24 pm
GEFSV2 (New, Parallel ensemble) continues to have many members west of the Sabine. Some, significantly. The ensemble envelope remains wide.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:28 pm
I like that the NHC links to local products on their home page and withing the storm's section. The link to HGX's page for Threats and Impacts takes you to their specifics on NWS Southern Region 's Tropical Webpage: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx#hti
So easy to see at a glance the Wind, Storm Surge, Flooding Rain and Tornado threats
So easy to see at a glance the Wind, Storm Surge, Flooding Rain and Tornado threats
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:29 pm
If the NHC forecast cone holds up, the Houston Metro area has definitely dodged a bullet. We’ve really been lucky here, especially considering we’ve never had to deal with a Cat 4 or 5 riding up through Freeport/Matagorda, putting the city on the worst side of it.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:31 pm
I have a feeling you guys are on to something...if Laura runs south and west of the plot points we will know more in the morning. Funny watched Rita do that accept it ran north and east of the plot points... that said if this thing bombs out then watch the mayhem begin!
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:34 pm
If I get hit, I hope it takes the whole house off the slab....just paid it off last month....After Rita, Harvey, Imelda...I am DONE. Give me my insurance money and I'm headed north, like WAY north....
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:35 pm
The Houston-Galveston areas need to watch Laura very closely and have plans ready to tomorrow. The 5PM NHC forecast discussion for Laura points out two concerns.
Rapid strengthening is possible and watches could move further S and W down the TX Coast.
From the NHC Laura Forecast Discussion:
The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these solutions and is close to the consensus aids.
Key Item #3:
3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.
Rapid strengthening is possible and watches could move further S and W down the TX Coast.
From the NHC Laura Forecast Discussion:
The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these solutions and is close to the consensus aids.
Key Item #3:
3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:37 pm
For what its worth just saw one of the TV mets show the RPM and it takes it right up the gut to Houston. Not sure if RPM is any better than the NAM though for tropical.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pm
Unfortunately me in Beaumont hasnt dodged that bullet and any further west, I will be in the eye. AGAIN!! Just got back from doing last minute errands and preps and its a madhouse out there. Lines for gas. Now limiting how many customers in stores. Issuing out water, gas can, generators. Traffic on I-10 is at a stand still here. Reminds me of the chaos before rita and the doom and gloom before Ike. Currently not a good feeling. With Harvey/Imelda PTSD, My nerves are already shot. Today we are looking around thinking enjoy the electricity as much as possible. Cook a good meal. Enjoy the luxuries cause it about to all come to an abrupt end. Praying no more shifts west. Went through eye of Rita and Ike. Not fun!!txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:29 pm If the NHC forecast cone holds up, the Houston Metro area has definitely dodged a bullet. We’ve really been lucky here, especially considering we’ve never had to deal with a Cat 4 or 5 riding up through Freeport/Matagorda, putting the city on the worst side of it.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:43 pm
Well the 18 Z HMON starts off with a weird little dance SW but by 1 am it is much further NW of of cuba than the 12 Z
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:44 pm
The past few runs of the EPS has been showing a significant threat behind Laura as well. Just wanted to throw that out there.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:45 pm
I’m sorry. Hang in there. Hope you don’t have to go through it all again.djmike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pmUnfortunately me in Beaumont hasnt dodged that bullet and any further west, I will be in the eye. AGAIN!! Just got back from doing last minute errands and preps and its a madhouse out there. Lines for gas. Now limiting how many customers in stores. Issuing out water, gas can, generators. Traffic on I-10 is at a stand still here. Reminds me of the chaos before rita and the doom and gloom before Ike. Currently not a good feeling. With Harvey/Imelda PTSD, My nerves are already shot. Today we are looking around thinking enjoy the electricity as much as possible. Cook a good meal. Enjoy the luxuries cause it about to all come to an abrupt end. Praying no more shifts west. Went through eye of Rita and Ike. Not fun!!txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:29 pm If the NHC forecast cone holds up, the Houston Metro area has definitely dodged a bullet. We’ve really been lucky here, especially considering we’ve never had to deal with a Cat 4 or 5 riding up through Freeport/Matagorda, putting the city on the worst side of it.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:45 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pmUnfortunately me in Beaumont hasnt dodged that bullet and any further west, I will be in the eye. AGAIN!! Just got back from doing last minute errands and preps and its a madhouse out there. Lines for gas. Now limiting how many customers in stores. Issuing out water, gas can, generators. Traffic on I-10 is at a stand still here. Reminds me of the chaos before rita and the doom and gloom before Ike. Currently not a good feeling. With Harvey/Imelda PTSD, My nerves are already shot. Today we are looking around thinking enjoy the electricity as much as possible. Cook a good meal. Enjoy the luxuries cause it about to all come to an abrupt end. Praying no more shifts west. Went through eye of Rita and Ike. Not fun!!txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:29 pm If the NHC forecast cone holds up, the Houston Metro area has definitely dodged a bullet. We’ve really been lucky here, especially considering we’ve never had to deal with a Cat 4 or 5 riding up through Freeport/Matagorda, putting the city on the worst side of it.
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Yeah. We feel for Mike. He has gotten the brunt of Storms. I am not that far from you, and I did get IKe and Rita..like you ..
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:46 pm
Heads up that Fox 26 tv met is about to explain why he sees risks for Houston going down as we move along here.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:48 pm
I actually know him personally. He teaches Meteorology classes at SE College of HCC.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:46 pm Heads up that Fox 26 tv met is about to explain why he sees risks for Houston going down as we move along here.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:58 pm
Glad we left this morning, and I feel your pain. I'm in Lakeway at in laws and I'm researching property as we speak. I'm SO tired of living year to year i S.E. Tx.....it's just a different place now....just not worth it.djmike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pmUnfortunately me in Beaumont hasnt dodged that bullet and any further west, I will be in the eye. AGAIN!! Just got back from doing last minute errands and preps and its a madhouse out there. Lines for gas. Now limiting how many customers in stores. Issuing out water, gas can, generators. Traffic on I-10 is at a stand still here. Reminds me of the chaos before rita and the doom and gloom before Ike. Currently not a good feeling. With Harvey/Imelda PTSD, My nerves are already shot. Today we are looking around thinking enjoy the electricity as much as possible. Cook a good meal. Enjoy the luxuries cause it about to all come to an abrupt end. Praying no more shifts west. Went through eye of Rita and Ike. Not fun!!txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:29 pm If the NHC forecast cone holds up, the Houston Metro area has definitely dodged a bullet. We’ve really been lucky here, especially considering we’ve never had to deal with a Cat 4 or 5 riding up through Freeport/Matagorda, putting the city on the worst side of it.