August 2020:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I only have my 3500 watt generator. May get a second today

[Andrew]

UKMET west shift...

Code: Select all

             HURRICANE LAURA      ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N  85.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.08.2020    0  23.3N  85.9W      993            52
    0000UTC 26.08.2020   12  24.6N  89.1W      986            50
    1200UTC 26.08.2020   24  26.0N  91.9W      978            60
    0000UTC 27.08.2020   36  27.8N  94.0W      969            69
    1200UTC 27.08.2020   48  30.3N  94.6W      961            46
    0000UTC 28.08.2020   60  33.4N  94.2W      977            36
    1200UTC 28.08.2020   72  35.8N  92.8W      986            35
    0000UTC 29.08.2020   84  37.4N  90.0W      985            38
    1200UTC 29.08.2020   96  37.7N  84.4W      982            35
    0000UTC 30.08.2020  108  37.2N  76.9W      988            36
    1200UTC 30.08.2020  120  37.7N  70.1W      981            50
    0000UTC 31.08.2020  132  39.7N  63.3W      967            63
    1200UTC 31.08.2020  144  43.6N  54.1W      944            82

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Where is Ukie landfall? I’m going to be dark the next 90 minutes on a conf call.

[mcheer23]

CMC west.

[christinac2016]

Damnit, that’s 0z... it’s lurking off the coast south of Galveston at 48 hours.

What model is this?

[Tx2005]

What is the landfall location for the recent UKMET and CMC, and how much of a west shift?

[Andrew]

Where is Ukie landfall? I’m going to be dark the next 90 minutes on a conf call.

Hard to say for sure but probably just east of Bolivar.

[DoctorMu]

12Z GEFS-Para - Bolivar Peninsula landfall.

Check out potential wind levels in your area. They've shifted west.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx#hti

[mcheer23]

What is the landfall location for the recent UKMET and CMC, and how much of a west shift?

Chambers county for UK
Galveston for CMC

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Damnit, that’s 0z... it’s lurking off the coast south of Galveston at 48 hours.

What model is this?

Mesoscale NMM-WRF

[Scott747]

Looks like the Ukie comes up just e of Galveston and up through Bolivar and Winnie.

[DoctorMu]

12z CMC landfall:

[tireman4]

[#NerdTweet] Low-level clouds have been consistently evaporating in this region NW of #Laura for the last several hours. While many things could cause this, one potential cause is a slight cool wake from Marco. We can't know for sure, but it's a possible speed-bump for Laura atm. pic.twitter.com/oFZtt0U1yJ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020

[Andrew]

CMC (Usually not the most reliable model FWIW)

[christinac2016]

[#NerdTweet] Low-level clouds have been consistently evaporating in this region NW of #Laura for the last several hours. While many things could cause this, one potential cause is a slight cool wake from Marco. We can't know for sure, but it's a possible speed-bump for Laura atm. pic.twitter.com/oFZtt0U1yJ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020

can you elaborate? What would this mean?

[davidiowx]

I'm not messing around. Just bought me a 6000 watt generator. On prowl now for portable AC

I bought one two days ago lol. Still looking for a 120 portable AC. If you find one please let me know!

[don]

Yep 12z UKMET shifts more west by a good margin it moved from the border to Bolivar peninsula.

[Tx2005]

Assuming the Euro holds to its last spot plus the ensembles, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t move the track west at 4.

[srainhoutx]

Just finished loading up a trailer headed to Houston. My business partner just left driving back for the sale of the business. Most folks other than chasers drive away. Closing set for Friday is still a go. That chapter is almost over. Perhaps I can slow down soon.

[tireman4]

[#NerdTweet] Low-level clouds have been consistently evaporating in this region NW of #Laura for the last several hours. While many things could cause this, one potential cause is a slight cool wake from Marco. We can't know for sure, but it's a possible speed-bump for Laura atm. pic.twitter.com/oFZtt0U1yJ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020

can you elaborate? What would this mean?

Marco caused an upwelling in the water in the GOM. That cool wake is causing hiccups in the intensification of Laura. This might be temporary.