August 2020:

[Rip76]

Damnit.

[Kingwood36]

Daytime...east....night-time...west

[Waded]

Phone just woke me up after a night of model watching. I haven't caught up with the thread, but I know the outlook hasn't improved if the NWS issued a hurricane warning for my area near Nassau Bay.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

[Kingwood36]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

Why it's pretty obvious that the national hurricane center is disregarding those its seemed like

[MontgomeryCoWx]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

Why it's pretty obvious that the national hurricane center is disregarding those its seemed like

They aren’t disregarding. They extended warnings down the Texas coast....

[Belmer]

GFS moved literally maybe a couple miles east, but 06 and 12z still indicate a Port Arthur landfall. Still seems a hair west of NHC.


06z:

12z:

[txbear]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

Agreed. The ensembles seem to have a better grasp of the situation, IMO. And they should be worth their own weight in the decision and forecast processes.

[snowman65]

ensembles still pointing Galveston?

[Cpv17]

12z tropical models shift west clustered between Beaumont and Houston. Expect a west shift in the track at the 11 am advisory.Wouldn't surprised me if they extended the hurricane watch further down the coast also, in the next update.

Imo this is why the NHC isn’t changing the track. Tight consensus on the border.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Waiting for them...

[Cpv17]

ensembles still pointing Galveston?

Ensembles are strong from Port O’Connor to High Island.

[mcheer23]

ensembles still pointing Galveston?

Ensembles are strong from Port O’Connor to High Island.

Basically where Crownweather has their cone....

[weatherguy425]

ensembles still pointing Galveston?

Ensembles are strong from Port O’Connor to High Island.

Basically where Crownweather has their cone....

12Z GEFS is out?

[tireman4]

People need to stop watching the NHC mid point track and watch ensembles.

We’ve seen time and time again where storms venture outside the cone or are at the extremes of them.

Why it's pretty obvious that the national hurricane center is disregarding those its seemed like

They aren’t disregarding. They extended warnings down the Texas coast....

I agree. Read again what Wxman 57 said. They are still trying to narrow this down. They did the prudent thing by extending the warnings and watches. This is an ever changing situation

[AtascocitaWX]

I saw on twitter , what some Met said the NHC has already informed local weather office in Houston that they will most likely shift cone west but was was waiting on Data from the planes. so local office just issued warnings to be proactive. Dont know how true that could be

[Scott747]

With the latest GFS run and there isn't a big shift with the hurricane models then I doubt they will budge on the track.

[vci_guy2003]

57 said the storm is small. Others have said it's bigger than average. What's the reality?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

WRF hits HGX head on

[Waded]

57 said the storm is small. Others have said it's bigger than average. What's the reality?

Hey didn't say it was small, he said would be smaller than Rita and Ike, two very large hurricanes.