August 2020:

[Kingwood36]

So what is the High ridge looking like? Is it strong ?

Nhc thinks there is enough weaken in it thats why larua will be pulled to the north to the border i believe if im reading it right

[Scott747]

18z euro ensembles should be out soon.

Have access to the op?

No. Have an offshore friend that gives me the run. Usually though it's already been posted before I ever get it.

[prospects8903]

When are the next model runs

[MontgomeryCoWx]

10 pm is a good time to check back

[christinac2016]

What storm had Houston thinking it was going further east and we woke up to find it headed our way?

I feel Laura May be like that. It sure is making us sweat.

[Stormlover2020]

Euro is dangerous !!! Headed for texas

[srainhoutx]

18Z European running. Down to 958mb in 30 hours

[Andrew]

Yea 18z is a lot stronger slightly further south and west.

[srainhoutx]

938mb at hour 54. Getting close...

[Andrew]

Landfall east of Bolivar probably near 124

[jasons2k]

Currently, the center appears to be doing a slingshot due west around the mountains and out into the Gulf. She will be back over water again soon.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks to Ryan via Twitter. Looks like Cat 4 strength at landfall for the 18Z European

[don]

18z EURO has landfall in Chambers County, that would be close enough to produce hurricane force winds in metro Houston.

[ajurcat]

18z EURO has landfall in Chambers County, that would be close enough to produce hurricane force winds in metro Houston.

Is this enough for NHC to adjust their forecast?

[christinac2016]

Laura
Mets on TWC say it could be comparable to Ike or Rita.

[jasons2k]

All the operational runs are still to the east of the Houston metro area, but I believe each one of the individual models shifted west from its respective 12Z run.

[srainhoutx]

RECON data from NOAA and AF suggests the center is crossing Western Cuba now. May be in the Gulf around midnight or so.

[ccbluewater]

Wow that is crazy low pressure for the Euro! It never seems to get that low.

[jasons2k]

I saw this posted by a Met on AmericanWx - this is the very first mention I've seen of this possibility:

I think there’s some risk Laura slows down significantly at/upon landfall, especially if track ends up further west than current guidance consensus. I’m watching this closely on future model runs...

Pattern will be shifting to --NAO +PNA. These teleconnections with TC track into Texas is usually good for very weak steering flow as TC’s can become trapped under synoptic scale ridging. As currently modeled on most guidance, the trough that influences Laura is already quite tenuous...

[weatherguy425]

Another great video by Levi -

https://youtu.be/9PlkhWYAxtE

Some important notes around the 10:20 mark.