Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020
TXZ200-213-214-300-313-042300-
Northern Liberty TX-Chambers TX-Coastal Harris TX-Inland Harris TX-
Southern Liberty TX-
526 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...
At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Humble to near Lake Houston Dam to near
Crosby. Movement was south at 20 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Baytown, Deer Park, Humble, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Beach City, Cloverleaf, Channelview, Highlands,
Barrett, Greater Fifth Ward, Second Ward, Crosby, Mont Belvieu, Cove,
Bush Intercontinental Airport, Harrisburg / Manchester, Magnolia Park
and Northshore.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
If on or near Lake Houston, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
August 2020:
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 052046 CCA
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
346 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Afternoon]...
Fair weather prevailed this morning and early afternoon across
Southeast TX. Sunny skies this morning and early afternoon allowed
for temperatures to rise up to the mid 90s by 1 PM CDT along areas
north of I-10 and are expected to rise into the upper 90s,
particularly along areas west of I-45 and north of I-10. Make sure
to practice Heat Safety if you plan to be outdoors today.
Earlier this morning, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developing over Northern TX and OK moved south southeastward into
Northeast TX and Northwest LA. With these storms a surge of low
level moisture was expected, increasing PWs up to around 2.1 inches
across the eastern half of the CWA. GOES 16 TPW has confirmed this
surge, with PWs already at 1.9 to 2.1 inches over the eastern
half of the CWA as of 1 PM CDT today, which will help increase the
potential for storm development for today. The combination of the
moisture, diurnal heating, instability and several outflow
boundaries (from the storms now located over Western LA and
Eastern TX as well as the local seabreeze boundaries) will produce
showers and thunderstorms starting over the northeastern quadrant
of the CWA and expand southward into the eastern and central
portions throughout the afternoon hours. As moisture and heating
increases, expected these storms to intensify. Most of the
development should mainly affect areas that are located along
I-45 and eastward, but a stray shower or thunderstorm should not
be ruled out along the rest of the central and southern areas.
Frequent lightning, strong gusty, and heavy rainfall will
accompany these showers and thunderstorms. Slow moving storms
producing heavy rainfall could lead to minor urban/rural and
street flooding. The SPC Day 1 Outlook continues a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms for areas east of a line extending from
Madison County southward through Galveston County. By the late
evening into early night hours, weather conditions will improve
and skies will scatter out.
A weak mid to upper level shortwave will move east southeastward
across Northeast TX and Northwest LA tonight into Thursday morning.
This feature, combined with ample moisture lingering over eastern TX
and western LA could produce additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms for those regions during the night hours. Although
most of the models keep this activity to our east, we also have
fairly good moisture in place along areas east of I-45, and have
thus added low PoPs for those locations. Thursday morning, showers
and thunderstorms over LA will be expanding westward and into our
eastern counties. Storm development will increase and expand
further across the CWA as heating ramps up in the afternoon. PoPs
were slightly increased for Thursday. High temperatures will once
again be in the mid to upper 90s along areas north of I-10 and in
the low to mid 90s along areas south of I-10. 24
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
Thursday Night through Saturday...Upper level ridge builds over the
area from the west with height rises suggesting mainly seasonably
hot and dry conditions although cannot rule out an isolated
afternoon thunderstorm.
Sunday through Wednesday...Ridge retrogrades west some by
Sunday...especially in the GFS which shows a trough at 500 mb
between ridges to the east and west. This would suggest higher
thunderstorm chances Sunday...although still mainly the diurnal
variety...with chances near the coast in the morning and mainly
afternoon inland with max heating. Global model QPF supports this
idea showing more precipitation and coverage Sunday afternoon
compared to prior days. As far as the weather next week...in
general not expecting significant rains...but fairly typical
summertime weather with seasonable hot and humid conditions...and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...mainly following
typical diurnal pattern...with morning chances near the coast...and
mainly afternoon inland.
18
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft will continue today. A more
pronounced onshore flow will begin Thursday and continue through
early next week. A diurnal wind pattern Friday into the upcoming
weekend will increase winds slightly during the nighttime hours
and briefly elevate seas to around 3 ft mainly for the Gulf waters
adjacent to Matagorda Bay. Chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns this weekend. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 98 75 97 75 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 94 76 94 75 / 40 30 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 90 82 / 20 20 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term/Aviation/Marine...24
Long Term/Fire Weather...18
FXUS64 KHGX 052046 CCA
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
346 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Afternoon]...
Fair weather prevailed this morning and early afternoon across
Southeast TX. Sunny skies this morning and early afternoon allowed
for temperatures to rise up to the mid 90s by 1 PM CDT along areas
north of I-10 and are expected to rise into the upper 90s,
particularly along areas west of I-45 and north of I-10. Make sure
to practice Heat Safety if you plan to be outdoors today.
Earlier this morning, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developing over Northern TX and OK moved south southeastward into
Northeast TX and Northwest LA. With these storms a surge of low
level moisture was expected, increasing PWs up to around 2.1 inches
across the eastern half of the CWA. GOES 16 TPW has confirmed this
surge, with PWs already at 1.9 to 2.1 inches over the eastern
half of the CWA as of 1 PM CDT today, which will help increase the
potential for storm development for today. The combination of the
moisture, diurnal heating, instability and several outflow
boundaries (from the storms now located over Western LA and
Eastern TX as well as the local seabreeze boundaries) will produce
showers and thunderstorms starting over the northeastern quadrant
of the CWA and expand southward into the eastern and central
portions throughout the afternoon hours. As moisture and heating
increases, expected these storms to intensify. Most of the
development should mainly affect areas that are located along
I-45 and eastward, but a stray shower or thunderstorm should not
be ruled out along the rest of the central and southern areas.
Frequent lightning, strong gusty, and heavy rainfall will
accompany these showers and thunderstorms. Slow moving storms
producing heavy rainfall could lead to minor urban/rural and
street flooding. The SPC Day 1 Outlook continues a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms for areas east of a line extending from
Madison County southward through Galveston County. By the late
evening into early night hours, weather conditions will improve
and skies will scatter out.
A weak mid to upper level shortwave will move east southeastward
across Northeast TX and Northwest LA tonight into Thursday morning.
This feature, combined with ample moisture lingering over eastern TX
and western LA could produce additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms for those regions during the night hours. Although
most of the models keep this activity to our east, we also have
fairly good moisture in place along areas east of I-45, and have
thus added low PoPs for those locations. Thursday morning, showers
and thunderstorms over LA will be expanding westward and into our
eastern counties. Storm development will increase and expand
further across the CWA as heating ramps up in the afternoon. PoPs
were slightly increased for Thursday. High temperatures will once
again be in the mid to upper 90s along areas north of I-10 and in
the low to mid 90s along areas south of I-10. 24
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
Thursday Night through Saturday...Upper level ridge builds over the
area from the west with height rises suggesting mainly seasonably
hot and dry conditions although cannot rule out an isolated
afternoon thunderstorm.
Sunday through Wednesday...Ridge retrogrades west some by
Sunday...especially in the GFS which shows a trough at 500 mb
between ridges to the east and west. This would suggest higher
thunderstorm chances Sunday...although still mainly the diurnal
variety...with chances near the coast in the morning and mainly
afternoon inland with max heating. Global model QPF supports this
idea showing more precipitation and coverage Sunday afternoon
compared to prior days. As far as the weather next week...in
general not expecting significant rains...but fairly typical
summertime weather with seasonable hot and humid conditions...and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...mainly following
typical diurnal pattern...with morning chances near the coast...and
mainly afternoon inland.
18
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft will continue today. A more
pronounced onshore flow will begin Thursday and continue through
early next week. A diurnal wind pattern Friday into the upcoming
weekend will increase winds slightly during the nighttime hours
and briefly elevate seas to around 3 ft mainly for the Gulf waters
adjacent to Matagorda Bay. Chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns this weekend. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 98 75 97 75 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 94 76 94 75 / 40 30 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 90 82 / 20 20 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term/Aviation/Marine...24
Long Term/Fire Weather...18
Another storm in Beaumont. This one is scary. Trees are down. Power is out at home and all over town. Streets flooded. Wasn’t expecting a round 2 today. Sheesh... now it’s getting hot.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Lucy...
- Attachments
-
Still without power in todays storms in beaumont. Its getting musty humid and hot inside now. 9,000 outages according to entergy....Neighborhood is out. Generators in the distance. Area damage. Trees down. Blackness outside and silence and generators makes It feel like we are post hurricane mode. Erie silence.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 060908
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
Showers are starting off in the eastern forecast area and some areas
of mist in the north. All this is expected to clear early this
morning giving way to scattered skies and a southeasterly breeze
throughout most of the day. This afternoon is expected to heat
enough to cause some diurnal convection to take hold but mainly
effect the area east of I-45 and I-10 and north. These afternoon
showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected to dissipate shortly
after sunset leaving behind overnight scattered skies and chances of
mist developing in the region. Friday will look similar with mainly
coastal showers in the afternoon as the upper level ridge build into
the area and takes hold. Winds will remain southerly and light with
the breeze along the coastal counties a little stronger in the
evening. Highs are expected to warm into the mid 90s with cooler
temperatures along the coast and higher in the northern counties.
Lows are cooling to the mid to upper 70s overall. 35
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
The upper level ridge remains over Texas through the weekend and
into the middle of next week continuing the mostly clear skies and
warm temperatures through the period. There will be a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop along the sea
breeze on Saturday. On Sunday, a very weak shortwave will move
across the area originating from Louisiana that slides across the
underside of the upper level ridge. This added upper level support
may help fuel the afternoon activity along the coast on Sunday, so
expect a bit more coverage on Sunday compared to Saturday. The
coverage of these afternoon showers will decrease Monday and
Tuesday, but an isolated shower along the coast will still be
possible. The pattern begins to change a bit by the middle of next
week as the upper level ridge begins to weaken across the Southern
Plains allowing for an upper level low to move into Oklahoma and
northern Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. This weakness aloft could
help fuel afternoon thunderstorms for not only along the coast, but
also further inland all the way up to Houston County. Still a ways
away, so don`t have anything more than 40 in the PoPs on Wednesday
or Thursday.
Temperatures through the period will be pretty much a persistence
forecast. High temperatures each day will be in the upper 80s to low
90s along the coast, mid to upper 90s further inland, and then up
into the upper 90s or even low 100s in the BCS area. The only hiccup
in these highs will be for areas along the coast where a well placed
thunderstorm may keep the high temperature lower than forecasted.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 70s across most of the
inland areas through the period with areas along the coast only
getting down into the upper 70s to low 80s.ere.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
A few showers in the eastern CWA and some areas of mist is
effecting the CXO area with in and out condition`s down to 1 mile.
Otherwise, VFR flying conditions at the TAF sites as the showers
dissipate and mist burns off shortly after sunrise. Southwesterly
winds and scattered skies will be seen in the forecast area. This
afternoon, areas of convection is expected but only expected to
effect CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR areas and some showers at LBX and chances
of showers in the UTS vicinity. Overnight, conditions will be VFR
with some chances of mist forming across the area but not
forecasted below MVFR. 35
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and smooth seas through the day. A more onshore flow
will begin tonight mainly in the Matagorda area and then effecting
the entire coastal area through the weekend. Winds will gradually
strengthen over the weekend as well as seas building back up to 2ft,
with some intermittent times up to 3ft. Higher chances of coastal
showers return over the weekend and into next week. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 75 98 74 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 76 95 76 95 / 20 10 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 90 83 90 / 20 10 10 0 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...35
MARINE...35
FXUS64 KHGX 060908
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
Showers are starting off in the eastern forecast area and some areas
of mist in the north. All this is expected to clear early this
morning giving way to scattered skies and a southeasterly breeze
throughout most of the day. This afternoon is expected to heat
enough to cause some diurnal convection to take hold but mainly
effect the area east of I-45 and I-10 and north. These afternoon
showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected to dissipate shortly
after sunset leaving behind overnight scattered skies and chances of
mist developing in the region. Friday will look similar with mainly
coastal showers in the afternoon as the upper level ridge build into
the area and takes hold. Winds will remain southerly and light with
the breeze along the coastal counties a little stronger in the
evening. Highs are expected to warm into the mid 90s with cooler
temperatures along the coast and higher in the northern counties.
Lows are cooling to the mid to upper 70s overall. 35
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
The upper level ridge remains over Texas through the weekend and
into the middle of next week continuing the mostly clear skies and
warm temperatures through the period. There will be a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop along the sea
breeze on Saturday. On Sunday, a very weak shortwave will move
across the area originating from Louisiana that slides across the
underside of the upper level ridge. This added upper level support
may help fuel the afternoon activity along the coast on Sunday, so
expect a bit more coverage on Sunday compared to Saturday. The
coverage of these afternoon showers will decrease Monday and
Tuesday, but an isolated shower along the coast will still be
possible. The pattern begins to change a bit by the middle of next
week as the upper level ridge begins to weaken across the Southern
Plains allowing for an upper level low to move into Oklahoma and
northern Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. This weakness aloft could
help fuel afternoon thunderstorms for not only along the coast, but
also further inland all the way up to Houston County. Still a ways
away, so don`t have anything more than 40 in the PoPs on Wednesday
or Thursday.
Temperatures through the period will be pretty much a persistence
forecast. High temperatures each day will be in the upper 80s to low
90s along the coast, mid to upper 90s further inland, and then up
into the upper 90s or even low 100s in the BCS area. The only hiccup
in these highs will be for areas along the coast where a well placed
thunderstorm may keep the high temperature lower than forecasted.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 70s across most of the
inland areas through the period with areas along the coast only
getting down into the upper 70s to low 80s.ere.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
A few showers in the eastern CWA and some areas of mist is
effecting the CXO area with in and out condition`s down to 1 mile.
Otherwise, VFR flying conditions at the TAF sites as the showers
dissipate and mist burns off shortly after sunrise. Southwesterly
winds and scattered skies will be seen in the forecast area. This
afternoon, areas of convection is expected but only expected to
effect CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR areas and some showers at LBX and chances
of showers in the UTS vicinity. Overnight, conditions will be VFR
with some chances of mist forming across the area but not
forecasted below MVFR. 35
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and smooth seas through the day. A more onshore flow
will begin tonight mainly in the Matagorda area and then effecting
the entire coastal area through the weekend. Winds will gradually
strengthen over the weekend as well as seas building back up to 2ft,
with some intermittent times up to 3ft. Higher chances of coastal
showers return over the weekend and into next week. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 75 98 74 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 76 95 76 95 / 20 10 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 90 83 90 / 20 10 10 0 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...35
MARINE...35
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Sooooooooo...when is that first fall cool front...ya know..lows in the 60s/50s
) September 25th
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071708
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020
.AVIATION...
PW values are a bit lower than yesterday and convective temps are
a bit higher so showers will probably struggle to develop this
afternoon. Will not mention VCSH/VCTS today. Generally VFR
conditions are expected today and tonight although there could
once again be some patchy morning fog at the usual spots around
sunrise. Models diverge with rain chances on Saturday with the
CAMs looking more aggressive with rain chances. Will keep things
dry for now but a VCSH may be needed for Saturday afternoon if
models come into better agreement. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...
While surface moisture today will be in place, the mid to upper
levels will be a little too dry for good chances of convection.
PWI`s will be roughly 1.75 in the area at the time of max heating,
and the temperatures are forecasted to be in the low to upper 90s.
This passes the low 90s convective temperatures across the area.
With that said, a few stray thunderstorms are possible in the area,
but not to the point of being able to say exactly where. Right now,
it looks like subsidence from the high will keep any build up from
happening. Lows will get down to the mid 70s across the are
overnight with mostly clear skies.
Tomorrow moisture returns to the mid to upper levels elevating
chances of precipitation. However, vicinity of the high will still
help keep chances somewhat low. Showers building over the coastal
waters could advect inland as the evening sea breeze kicks in and
further develops into thunderstorms, but coverage will be spotty.
PWIs will be higher, along with higher instability; the possibility
of a thunderstorm is possible. 35
LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Friday]...
Mid/upper level ridging across the state at the start of the
long term period will edge westward and will be centered in/
around the Arizona/New Mexico border for much of next week.
Our area will generally be positioned between this ridge off
to our west and ridging that will be off the SE U.S. coast.
A persistent onshore flow and our positioning between the two
ridges should allow for almost daily mainly diurnally driven
shower and/or thunderstorm chances.
Little change in temperatures can be expected, with lows in
the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s near the
coast, and highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and in the
lower 90s near the coast. We will need to keep an eye on
our max heat index values with current forecasts showing
some elevated readings Sunday through Wednesday. Even if
there is no heat advisory, always protect yourself and your
loved ones, including pets, if you plan to spend time
outdoors or in areas with poor ventilation. Always practice
heat safety! 42
MARINE...
No real changes from the previous marine discussion. Light winds and
low wave heights through the weekend. Early next week, stronger
onshore flow returns. So the typical summer pattern of stronger
winds at night and lighter winds during the day will be the pattern
in the coastal waters. Bay areas will see stronger day time winds
and lighter winds at night. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 90 82 93 / 10 10 20 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 071708
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020
.AVIATION...
PW values are a bit lower than yesterday and convective temps are
a bit higher so showers will probably struggle to develop this
afternoon. Will not mention VCSH/VCTS today. Generally VFR
conditions are expected today and tonight although there could
once again be some patchy morning fog at the usual spots around
sunrise. Models diverge with rain chances on Saturday with the
CAMs looking more aggressive with rain chances. Will keep things
dry for now but a VCSH may be needed for Saturday afternoon if
models come into better agreement. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...
While surface moisture today will be in place, the mid to upper
levels will be a little too dry for good chances of convection.
PWI`s will be roughly 1.75 in the area at the time of max heating,
and the temperatures are forecasted to be in the low to upper 90s.
This passes the low 90s convective temperatures across the area.
With that said, a few stray thunderstorms are possible in the area,
but not to the point of being able to say exactly where. Right now,
it looks like subsidence from the high will keep any build up from
happening. Lows will get down to the mid 70s across the are
overnight with mostly clear skies.
Tomorrow moisture returns to the mid to upper levels elevating
chances of precipitation. However, vicinity of the high will still
help keep chances somewhat low. Showers building over the coastal
waters could advect inland as the evening sea breeze kicks in and
further develops into thunderstorms, but coverage will be spotty.
PWIs will be higher, along with higher instability; the possibility
of a thunderstorm is possible. 35
LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Friday]...
Mid/upper level ridging across the state at the start of the
long term period will edge westward and will be centered in/
around the Arizona/New Mexico border for much of next week.
Our area will generally be positioned between this ridge off
to our west and ridging that will be off the SE U.S. coast.
A persistent onshore flow and our positioning between the two
ridges should allow for almost daily mainly diurnally driven
shower and/or thunderstorm chances.
Little change in temperatures can be expected, with lows in
the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s near the
coast, and highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and in the
lower 90s near the coast. We will need to keep an eye on
our max heat index values with current forecasts showing
some elevated readings Sunday through Wednesday. Even if
there is no heat advisory, always protect yourself and your
loved ones, including pets, if you plan to spend time
outdoors or in areas with poor ventilation. Always practice
heat safety! 42
MARINE...
No real changes from the previous marine discussion. Light winds and
low wave heights through the weekend. Early next week, stronger
onshore flow returns. So the typical summer pattern of stronger
winds at night and lighter winds during the day will be the pattern
in the coastal waters. Bay areas will see stronger day time winds
and lighter winds at night. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 90 82 93 / 10 10 20 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Enjoy this calm period for the next week or so. Things could get quite interesting later this month.
How's it looking for saturday?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081527
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1027 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Have bumped up PoPs slightly as satellite derived PW imagery shows
an increase in moisture over the southern half of the CWA. Radar
is also showing an increase in coverage this morning. 12z morning
soundings show MaxT values a few degrees cooler than yesterday and
this seems plausible as increased cloud cover and precip should
keep values a shade cooler than yesterday. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Night]...
Some coastal showers near the Galveston Bay area will dissipate
early, along with some mist in the northern and western counties.
The rest of the day will be partly cloudy skies and a chance of
afternoon showers and a thunderstorm is possible along the I-10
corridor. Over night will be similar to last night with some mist in
the same areas leading to another partly cloudy day with some
slightly higher chances of thunderstorms and showers. Heat will be
the main impact this weekend. Today`s heat indices will be in the
low to mid 100s and tomorrow is looking high enough for a Heat
Advisory with indicies up to 110. 35
LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...
As we head into the end of the weekend, the prevailing upper ridge
that has dominated the synoptic pattern of late will push slightly
westward, with a robust surface high remaining in place over the
central Gulf of Mexico as we head into the beginning of next week.
With lower surface pressures over W Texas allowing for a continued
onshore flow, the coming week will continue to be characterized by
seasonably warm temperatures and the diurnal formation and northward
propagation of showers and thunderstorms. Onshore moisture transport
looks to slowly increase through mid-week, with most recent global
model runs showing a rise of surface PW values into the 1.75 to 2.0
in range by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, have continued to
maintain the increasing trend of PoPs as the week progresses, with
values in the 15-25% range on Monday ramping up to near 40% by
Wednesday. Low-level moisture transport will become even more
favorable by the weekend as a tightening of the surface pressure
gradient will create a stronger southeasterly fetch.
Expect the hot and humid conditions that have persisted across the
region for the past several days to continue in the long term.
Daytime highs should remain fairly steady in the mid 90s across the
Greater Houston Area, while locations further north are likely to
flirt with the triple digits. As the aforementioned onshore flow
pattern will keep surface dewpoints elevated, we`ll continue to see
maximum heat index values in the upper 100s and perhaps the low 110s
in some places through the duration of the week. As a result, may
need to consider the issuance of Heat Advisories as the week goes
on. For those planning to head outdoors, it will continue to be
important to practice heat safety. This includes remaining hydrated,
applying sunscreen, and avoiding strenuous activities during the
daytime hours.
Cady
MARINE...
Light onshore flow through the weekend and low seas. As the high
shifts to the northeastern Gulf, stronger winds over night will
prevail over the Gulf waters and lighter winds during the day and
stronger daytime winds over the bays and lighter winds at night.
Seas will be around 2 ft with some periods of 3 ft in the outer
coastal waters. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 76 98 / 10 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 78 94 77 95 / 20 10 40 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 93 83 91 / 20 20 30 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
FXUS64 KHGX 081527
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1027 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Have bumped up PoPs slightly as satellite derived PW imagery shows
an increase in moisture over the southern half of the CWA. Radar
is also showing an increase in coverage this morning. 12z morning
soundings show MaxT values a few degrees cooler than yesterday and
this seems plausible as increased cloud cover and precip should
keep values a shade cooler than yesterday. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Night]...
Some coastal showers near the Galveston Bay area will dissipate
early, along with some mist in the northern and western counties.
The rest of the day will be partly cloudy skies and a chance of
afternoon showers and a thunderstorm is possible along the I-10
corridor. Over night will be similar to last night with some mist in
the same areas leading to another partly cloudy day with some
slightly higher chances of thunderstorms and showers. Heat will be
the main impact this weekend. Today`s heat indices will be in the
low to mid 100s and tomorrow is looking high enough for a Heat
Advisory with indicies up to 110. 35
LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...
As we head into the end of the weekend, the prevailing upper ridge
that has dominated the synoptic pattern of late will push slightly
westward, with a robust surface high remaining in place over the
central Gulf of Mexico as we head into the beginning of next week.
With lower surface pressures over W Texas allowing for a continued
onshore flow, the coming week will continue to be characterized by
seasonably warm temperatures and the diurnal formation and northward
propagation of showers and thunderstorms. Onshore moisture transport
looks to slowly increase through mid-week, with most recent global
model runs showing a rise of surface PW values into the 1.75 to 2.0
in range by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, have continued to
maintain the increasing trend of PoPs as the week progresses, with
values in the 15-25% range on Monday ramping up to near 40% by
Wednesday. Low-level moisture transport will become even more
favorable by the weekend as a tightening of the surface pressure
gradient will create a stronger southeasterly fetch.
Expect the hot and humid conditions that have persisted across the
region for the past several days to continue in the long term.
Daytime highs should remain fairly steady in the mid 90s across the
Greater Houston Area, while locations further north are likely to
flirt with the triple digits. As the aforementioned onshore flow
pattern will keep surface dewpoints elevated, we`ll continue to see
maximum heat index values in the upper 100s and perhaps the low 110s
in some places through the duration of the week. As a result, may
need to consider the issuance of Heat Advisories as the week goes
on. For those planning to head outdoors, it will continue to be
important to practice heat safety. This includes remaining hydrated,
applying sunscreen, and avoiding strenuous activities during the
daytime hours.
Cady
MARINE...
Light onshore flow through the weekend and low seas. As the high
shifts to the northeastern Gulf, stronger winds over night will
prevail over the Gulf waters and lighter winds during the day and
stronger daytime winds over the bays and lighter winds at night.
Seas will be around 2 ft with some periods of 3 ft in the outer
coastal waters. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 76 98 / 10 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 78 94 77 95 / 20 10 40 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 93 83 91 / 20 20 30 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
It's a good thing the Death Ridge doesn't exist...
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 091521
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1021 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.UPDATE...
CAMs remain aggressive with rain chances today and this seems
reasonable as PW values climb to almost 2.25 inches and SE TX
will lie on the east side of a weak inverted trough axis.
Convective temperatures range from about 88 degrees near the coast
to around 93 degrees well inland. Tweaked sky grids and lowered
MaxT a degree or so based on expected cloud cover and precip. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Tomorrow Night]...
Some coastal showers near the Galveston Bay area will slowly build
up and move inland through the morning. The rest of the day will be
partly cloudy skies and showers building and thunderstorms building
as afternoon heating reaches convective temperatures. Most storms
will be along the I-10 corridor as showers that move inland build.
This mixed with some sea breeze in the area will help build and
enhance these storms. After sunset, storms will dissipate or move out
of the area. Ambient temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s
along the coast and almost 100 further inland with heat indices in
the mid to upper 100s.
35
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...
If you`ve enjoyed the warm and humid conditions with isolated
thunderstorms over the past few days...you`re in luck. As persistent
upper ridging remains the dominant synoptic feature across SE Texas,
seasonably warm conditions with diurnally driven precipitation will
remain the story through the upcoming work week. The presence of
surface high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico will continue
to support a light but persistent onshore flow pattern through the
extended forecast period, with surface PW values rebounding to near
2.0 in by Wednesday as deepening pressure over western TX will
create a relatively stronger surface pressure gradient. While
forecast soundings show favorable instability for convective
development through mid-week, precipitation chances will be
moderated by upper-level subsidence associated with the
aforementioned ridge. Nonetheless, there are likely to be some
scattered to isolated thunderstorms driven by diurnal effects each
morning and afternoon as the sea breeze boundary propagates inland.
As a result, have continued to maintain 15-30% PoPs along the coast
and south of the I-10 corridor through the extended forecast period.
Heat remains a concern in the coming work week. Daily high
temperatures across the Houston metro remain on track to reach the
mid to upper 90s through the end of the week, with some areas north
of I-10 expected to rise above 100. As the persistent onshore flow
continues to keep dew points fairly high, elevated heat indicies
will be something to watch for closely in the coming days. Daily
maximum heat index values should reach 105-110 in most locations,
which raises the possibility of heat advisories. Practicing heat
safety will be especially important during this time, particularly
if you work outside or are planning any other outdoor activities.
Low temperatures should consistently remain in the upper 70s to low
80s...which could threaten to break some additional daily high
minimum temperature records in the coming days.
Cady
MARINE...
Light onshore flow will persist through the forecast period with
seas remaining at 1-2ft with some peak times of 3ft. Some higher
onshore flow can be expected early in the night. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms can be seen in the early morning and
evening hours.
35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 98 76 99 / 20 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 77 95 78 95 / 50 30 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 90 83 91 / 40 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 091521
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1021 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.UPDATE...
CAMs remain aggressive with rain chances today and this seems
reasonable as PW values climb to almost 2.25 inches and SE TX
will lie on the east side of a weak inverted trough axis.
Convective temperatures range from about 88 degrees near the coast
to around 93 degrees well inland. Tweaked sky grids and lowered
MaxT a degree or so based on expected cloud cover and precip. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Tomorrow Night]...
Some coastal showers near the Galveston Bay area will slowly build
up and move inland through the morning. The rest of the day will be
partly cloudy skies and showers building and thunderstorms building
as afternoon heating reaches convective temperatures. Most storms
will be along the I-10 corridor as showers that move inland build.
This mixed with some sea breeze in the area will help build and
enhance these storms. After sunset, storms will dissipate or move out
of the area. Ambient temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s
along the coast and almost 100 further inland with heat indices in
the mid to upper 100s.
35
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...
If you`ve enjoyed the warm and humid conditions with isolated
thunderstorms over the past few days...you`re in luck. As persistent
upper ridging remains the dominant synoptic feature across SE Texas,
seasonably warm conditions with diurnally driven precipitation will
remain the story through the upcoming work week. The presence of
surface high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico will continue
to support a light but persistent onshore flow pattern through the
extended forecast period, with surface PW values rebounding to near
2.0 in by Wednesday as deepening pressure over western TX will
create a relatively stronger surface pressure gradient. While
forecast soundings show favorable instability for convective
development through mid-week, precipitation chances will be
moderated by upper-level subsidence associated with the
aforementioned ridge. Nonetheless, there are likely to be some
scattered to isolated thunderstorms driven by diurnal effects each
morning and afternoon as the sea breeze boundary propagates inland.
As a result, have continued to maintain 15-30% PoPs along the coast
and south of the I-10 corridor through the extended forecast period.
Heat remains a concern in the coming work week. Daily high
temperatures across the Houston metro remain on track to reach the
mid to upper 90s through the end of the week, with some areas north
of I-10 expected to rise above 100. As the persistent onshore flow
continues to keep dew points fairly high, elevated heat indicies
will be something to watch for closely in the coming days. Daily
maximum heat index values should reach 105-110 in most locations,
which raises the possibility of heat advisories. Practicing heat
safety will be especially important during this time, particularly
if you work outside or are planning any other outdoor activities.
Low temperatures should consistently remain in the upper 70s to low
80s...which could threaten to break some additional daily high
minimum temperature records in the coming days.
Cady
MARINE...
Light onshore flow will persist through the forecast period with
seas remaining at 1-2ft with some peak times of 3ft. Some higher
onshore flow can be expected early in the night. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms can be seen in the early morning and
evening hours.
35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 98 76 99 / 20 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 77 95 78 95 / 50 30 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 90 83 91 / 40 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
I have seen HGX mention the CAMs models more lately. What are those models short range I presume?
Today's sea breeze might be our best chance at an isolated shower for at least a week...although I'm seeing a wall just north of Brenham where the ridge is lurking.
Not seeing much of a chance of rain on GFS, Euro, Canadian, Ensembles until at least the 18/19th up in the Brazos Valley.
Welcome to August!
Not seeing much of a chance of rain on GFS, Euro, Canadian, Ensembles until at least the 18/19th up in the Brazos Valley.
Welcome to August!
The tropics look to be pretty quiet for now. The EPAC is stealing the show.