Excitement will come towards the last week of August and into September.
August 2020:
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Kingwood36
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Am i seeing signs of the first front? Well its 16 days out so don't get to excited but its a welcome sight
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
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Has washington,Oregon or California ever been hit by a hurricane?
99 here in Rosenberg with a heat index of 111. Brutal!
Its too hot to even attempt fishing. Predicted heat index by 10AM is 108.
Thats been the story for me all summer. Get on the water by sunrise, still hot, don't catch anything. I've made roughly 20 trips to various places (Salt and fresh) since about April and haven't caught one fish. I can go to our catch and release only HOA pond and catch them left and right. Go figure.
Either way its too damned hot to do anything outside.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 151102
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Very thin tendril of MVFR CIG may pass through UTS and maybe CXO,
but expect this to occur before 12Z. Bits of MVFR clouds sprinkled
about the rest of the area, but impact - if any - to terminals
will be very brief. Otherwise, looking for SW winds to become more
S/SE and increase to 5-10 knots as seabreeze sets up, then weaken
and veer back towards SW tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/...
.DISCUSSION...
We are square in what is climatologically the hottest part of the
year across Southeast Texas. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the
atmosphere has decided this is the perfect time to be abnormally
hot because 2020 is extra like that. Our stretch of heat
advisories area-wide continues through at least today, as an upper
disturbance from the east looks to fizzle out before reaching our
area.
The need for the heat advisory to continue through tomorrow is a
little fuzzier. A well-timed upper disturbance could cause
showers and thunderstorms to erupt Sunday afternoon, chopping down
the heat and any requirement for a heat advisory. If that doesn`t
happen...well...repeat the heat. Given the uncertainty in the
potential for convection, we have opted to hold off on extending
the heat advisory again for now.
Beyond that, we`re still looking for a weak cold front to droop
into the area early next week. The word to emphasize here is
"weak" over "cold", so don`t get too excited. Models are building
confidence in some drier air pushing partially into the area for
mid-week, which would at least give some folks in the north a
couple cooler mornings. Regardless, the arrival of this front
will signal a more active period deeper into next week, with
better potential for showers and storms.
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...
Satellite imagery shows some scattered high clouds are beginning
to drift in from the east, as an upper disturbance is generating
some showers and thunderstorms over Mississippi and Louisiana.
We`ll be keeping an eye to our east for any showers and storms
this afternoon. Most of the model guidance keeps things dry -
likely because of increasing subsidence as an upper ridge over the
western US strengthen - but a couple HREF members do manage to get
some showers going in our east. So there are some very, very low
rain chances east of Houston, though they aren`t much higher than
zero.
All of this probably indicates strongly that we`ll get plenty hot
again today after a start in the upper 70s to lower 80s yet again
this morning. Yesterday we mixed out pretty well, and so we saw
some cracks in the wall of 108 degree-plus heat index peaks. I`d
expect to see that again today, so not everyone should look to
reach that 108 degree heat index threshold, but it will be
widespread enough that the heat advisory is definitely still
needed. Additionally, those with the hottest heat index in the
area will probably reach into the 110-112 degree range. Also, for
those that do mix out more, the air temperature should rise more
effectively. Triple digit highs also may be fairly common away
from the coast, and spots in the northwest like Caldwell, Bryan,
and College Station, could hit the air temperature threshold for
the heat advisory, even if the heat index doesn`t quite pan out.
Now...tomorrow...things start to get a little interesting.
Depending on just how strong the western ridge gets, a subtle
shortwave trough may be lined up to roll right through our area.
And if the timing is right, it would be just in time to support
the development of some afternoon showers and storms! The HREF CAM
ensemble actually seems to indicate this is rather probable.
Additionally, the 18Z Texas Tech WRF was very gung ho about this
as well. If it all pans out like this, clouds and rain would
probably cut off the rising temps before we would need another
heat advisory.
But uh...here`s the thing. As the evening shift so wisely noted on
their way out, the 00Z Texas Tech WRF is pretending it never had
this whole idea. Ask the NAM about it, and the response is "LOLNO"
as it focuses convection far to our northwest. And while the GFS
and Euro kinda hint at some light precip Sunday afternoon/evening,
it`s not full-throated support. So since I need to make a
deterministic forecast here, I will hedge with some slight chance
PoPs across the area Sunday afternoon, but my temperature and heat
index forecast assumes we are stuck with the heat. If confidence
in rain goes up, look for the temp/HI numbers to get brought down.
If confidence in rain goes down, temp/HI will stay up and PoPs
will disappear.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...
Fortunately, there is a light at the end of this hot tunnel, and
it`s not even a train`s headlight! Yes, the weak front we`ve been
hoping would not disappear from model solutions looks like more of
a sure thing as we get closer to its passage through the area on
Monday. As we`ve been cautioning for some time, this is not one of
those solid, "hint of fall" kind of fronts yet. It is still mid-
August. This will be a pretty weak front, and cooling will come
just as much (or more!) from drier air allowing us to start the
day from a cooler floor than from the advection of any real cooler
air into the region.
Happily for those inland (probably north of Houston though), the
GFS is starting to get on board with the Euro on dewpoints in the
upper 50s behind this front. I hold the forecast dewpoints around
60 degrees there as dewpoints that low in mid-August is fairly
unusual, but even that will be a relief. That relief won`t really
make it down here to the coastal counties, but I`m sure that drier
air will be very pleasant for those that get to see it. I`m
totally happy for you and not bitterly jealous or anything.
As far as rain goes, while confidence is pretty high for at least
some showers and storms to crop up on/near this front, we`ll
still be battling subsident influence from the beefy upper ridge
over the Great Basin, so I`m not looking for a big, organized QLCS
here. As a result, I`m hesitant to let PoPs drift any higher than
40 percent at the wettest.
The effect of this front into the middle week is to see conditions
get hacked back down to more seasonable values. This is, of
course, still pretty hot, but is at least more typical. Onshore
flow will return for the late week, but relatively seasonable
conditions should remain. While that big upper ridge persists over
the west, a compensating upper trough deepens over the eastern US,
and we look to be locked between the two deep into next week. This
will likely keep us from drifting too far in either direction,
with continued chances of showers and storms occasionally as
shortwave troughs round through the area. How could this forecast
bust? Well, if this balance doesn`t hold, and we begin to see
stronger influence from either the ridge or the trough, things
could shift to hotter and drier (ridge wins) or not quite as hot
(trough wins).
.MARINE...
Look for diurnal patterns to continue until some offshore winds
come into the picture with the arrival of the advertised weak cold
front on Monday. This front will wash out quickly, with onshore
flow and the seasonal pattern returning quickly. Additionally, we
should see nocturnal showers be a little more productive deeper
into next week.
.CLIMATE...
In what is becoming a bit of a broken record (again), Galveston
tied its daily record high min temp yesterday. Considering the
record high min for today is again 84 and it is 86 degrees just
before 4 am, that record is on the table again today.
As temperatures drift up, we`ll also have to start eyeing record
highs more carefully. At IAH, the record high is 101, and the
forecast high is 102. Hobby`s record is also 101, with a forecast
of 100. Though forecast at 103, College Station`s record is likely
safe as it is an impressive 106 degrees. Similarly, records should
be safe on the Island, where Galveston`s record is 96, and onshore
flow should keep the high a little bit below that mark.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 77 103 76 98 / 10 10 20 20 40
Houston (IAH) 102 79 102 79 98 / 10 10 20 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 83 94 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 151102
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Very thin tendril of MVFR CIG may pass through UTS and maybe CXO,
but expect this to occur before 12Z. Bits of MVFR clouds sprinkled
about the rest of the area, but impact - if any - to terminals
will be very brief. Otherwise, looking for SW winds to become more
S/SE and increase to 5-10 knots as seabreeze sets up, then weaken
and veer back towards SW tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/...
.DISCUSSION...
We are square in what is climatologically the hottest part of the
year across Southeast Texas. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the
atmosphere has decided this is the perfect time to be abnormally
hot because 2020 is extra like that. Our stretch of heat
advisories area-wide continues through at least today, as an upper
disturbance from the east looks to fizzle out before reaching our
area.
The need for the heat advisory to continue through tomorrow is a
little fuzzier. A well-timed upper disturbance could cause
showers and thunderstorms to erupt Sunday afternoon, chopping down
the heat and any requirement for a heat advisory. If that doesn`t
happen...well...repeat the heat. Given the uncertainty in the
potential for convection, we have opted to hold off on extending
the heat advisory again for now.
Beyond that, we`re still looking for a weak cold front to droop
into the area early next week. The word to emphasize here is
"weak" over "cold", so don`t get too excited. Models are building
confidence in some drier air pushing partially into the area for
mid-week, which would at least give some folks in the north a
couple cooler mornings. Regardless, the arrival of this front
will signal a more active period deeper into next week, with
better potential for showers and storms.
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...
Satellite imagery shows some scattered high clouds are beginning
to drift in from the east, as an upper disturbance is generating
some showers and thunderstorms over Mississippi and Louisiana.
We`ll be keeping an eye to our east for any showers and storms
this afternoon. Most of the model guidance keeps things dry -
likely because of increasing subsidence as an upper ridge over the
western US strengthen - but a couple HREF members do manage to get
some showers going in our east. So there are some very, very low
rain chances east of Houston, though they aren`t much higher than
zero.
All of this probably indicates strongly that we`ll get plenty hot
again today after a start in the upper 70s to lower 80s yet again
this morning. Yesterday we mixed out pretty well, and so we saw
some cracks in the wall of 108 degree-plus heat index peaks. I`d
expect to see that again today, so not everyone should look to
reach that 108 degree heat index threshold, but it will be
widespread enough that the heat advisory is definitely still
needed. Additionally, those with the hottest heat index in the
area will probably reach into the 110-112 degree range. Also, for
those that do mix out more, the air temperature should rise more
effectively. Triple digit highs also may be fairly common away
from the coast, and spots in the northwest like Caldwell, Bryan,
and College Station, could hit the air temperature threshold for
the heat advisory, even if the heat index doesn`t quite pan out.
Now...tomorrow...things start to get a little interesting.
Depending on just how strong the western ridge gets, a subtle
shortwave trough may be lined up to roll right through our area.
And if the timing is right, it would be just in time to support
the development of some afternoon showers and storms! The HREF CAM
ensemble actually seems to indicate this is rather probable.
Additionally, the 18Z Texas Tech WRF was very gung ho about this
as well. If it all pans out like this, clouds and rain would
probably cut off the rising temps before we would need another
heat advisory.
But uh...here`s the thing. As the evening shift so wisely noted on
their way out, the 00Z Texas Tech WRF is pretending it never had
this whole idea. Ask the NAM about it, and the response is "LOLNO"
as it focuses convection far to our northwest. And while the GFS
and Euro kinda hint at some light precip Sunday afternoon/evening,
it`s not full-throated support. So since I need to make a
deterministic forecast here, I will hedge with some slight chance
PoPs across the area Sunday afternoon, but my temperature and heat
index forecast assumes we are stuck with the heat. If confidence
in rain goes up, look for the temp/HI numbers to get brought down.
If confidence in rain goes down, temp/HI will stay up and PoPs
will disappear.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...
Fortunately, there is a light at the end of this hot tunnel, and
it`s not even a train`s headlight! Yes, the weak front we`ve been
hoping would not disappear from model solutions looks like more of
a sure thing as we get closer to its passage through the area on
Monday. As we`ve been cautioning for some time, this is not one of
those solid, "hint of fall" kind of fronts yet. It is still mid-
August. This will be a pretty weak front, and cooling will come
just as much (or more!) from drier air allowing us to start the
day from a cooler floor than from the advection of any real cooler
air into the region.
Happily for those inland (probably north of Houston though), the
GFS is starting to get on board with the Euro on dewpoints in the
upper 50s behind this front. I hold the forecast dewpoints around
60 degrees there as dewpoints that low in mid-August is fairly
unusual, but even that will be a relief. That relief won`t really
make it down here to the coastal counties, but I`m sure that drier
air will be very pleasant for those that get to see it. I`m
totally happy for you and not bitterly jealous or anything.
As far as rain goes, while confidence is pretty high for at least
some showers and storms to crop up on/near this front, we`ll
still be battling subsident influence from the beefy upper ridge
over the Great Basin, so I`m not looking for a big, organized QLCS
here. As a result, I`m hesitant to let PoPs drift any higher than
40 percent at the wettest.
The effect of this front into the middle week is to see conditions
get hacked back down to more seasonable values. This is, of
course, still pretty hot, but is at least more typical. Onshore
flow will return for the late week, but relatively seasonable
conditions should remain. While that big upper ridge persists over
the west, a compensating upper trough deepens over the eastern US,
and we look to be locked between the two deep into next week. This
will likely keep us from drifting too far in either direction,
with continued chances of showers and storms occasionally as
shortwave troughs round through the area. How could this forecast
bust? Well, if this balance doesn`t hold, and we begin to see
stronger influence from either the ridge or the trough, things
could shift to hotter and drier (ridge wins) or not quite as hot
(trough wins).
.MARINE...
Look for diurnal patterns to continue until some offshore winds
come into the picture with the arrival of the advertised weak cold
front on Monday. This front will wash out quickly, with onshore
flow and the seasonal pattern returning quickly. Additionally, we
should see nocturnal showers be a little more productive deeper
into next week.
.CLIMATE...
In what is becoming a bit of a broken record (again), Galveston
tied its daily record high min temp yesterday. Considering the
record high min for today is again 84 and it is 86 degrees just
before 4 am, that record is on the table again today.
As temperatures drift up, we`ll also have to start eyeing record
highs more carefully. At IAH, the record high is 101, and the
forecast high is 102. Hobby`s record is also 101, with a forecast
of 100. Though forecast at 103, College Station`s record is likely
safe as it is an impressive 106 degrees. Similarly, records should
be safe on the Island, where Galveston`s record is 96, and onshore
flow should keep the high a little bit below that mark.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 77 103 76 98 / 10 10 20 20 40
Houston (IAH) 102 79 102 79 98 / 10 10 20 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 83 94 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs
What at a well written discussion by Sean Luchs.
Please make the heat stop LOL. I know, I know, Houston in August... some rain would be nice! Or heck, I’ll just take a cloudy day!
Please make the heat stop LOL. I know, I know, Houston in August... some rain would be nice! Or heck, I’ll just take a cloudy day!
Even a quick 5 minute chore outside = drenched in sweat. This weather blows.
That was a very-well written discussion. It's going to be hot in front of the grill tonight. I'm hoping for some rain the the next couple of days.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
We've been expecting a very active Hurricane Season. It's time to keep a keen eye on the Caribbean and the Gulf folks. August 20th through October 20th is the time frame of the greatest threat climatology wise.
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Yes sir! The tropics are about to light up like a firecracker.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:20 pm We've been expecting a very active Hurricane Season. It's time to keep a keen eye on the Caribbean and the Gulf folks. August 20th through October 20th is the time frame of the greatest threat climatology wise.
Well for days and days, my chance of rain for Monday was 40%.
The afternoon forecast update now has Monday’s rain chances down to 30%...
The afternoon forecast update now has Monday’s rain chances down to 30%...
Yep. There's a ton of heat on land and in the Gulf. It felt like I was mowing on the surface of the sun yesterday and today.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:54 pmYes sir! The tropics are about to light up like a firecracker.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:20 pm We've been expecting a very active Hurricane Season. It's time to keep a keen eye on the Caribbean and the Gulf folks. August 20th through October 20th is the time frame of the greatest threat climatology wise.
Lower dewpoints ahead are extremely welcome...even if it means more watering.
- Attachments
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Overnight another strong tropical wave emerged off the West Coast of Africa. That feature appears to have a robust spin already established and is moving West rather quickly at a low latitude. It should arrive near the Eastern Caribbean in about 8 to 10 days.
The first wave already in the Atlantic should arrive in the Eastern Caribbean Sea tomorrow/Tuesday. It too is moving quickly and could enter the Gulf next weekend.
Hemispheric/atmospheric conditions are expected to become very favorable for tropical development as the coming work week progresses. A very favorable Madden Julian Oscillation and the strongest Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave of the season currently over the Eastern Pacific and Central America will continue moving East into the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean in the days ahead.
The first wave already in the Atlantic should arrive in the Eastern Caribbean Sea tomorrow/Tuesday. It too is moving quickly and could enter the Gulf next weekend.
Hemispheric/atmospheric conditions are expected to become very favorable for tropical development as the coming work week progresses. A very favorable Madden Julian Oscillation and the strongest Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave of the season currently over the Eastern Pacific and Central America will continue moving East into the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean in the days ahead.
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity