July 2020

[Cpv17]

Looking a a few of the models this morning it looks like models may be catching up with the rainfall potential on the dirty side of the storm.

I hope so. I don’t want a flood or anything necessarily but I’d love to have at least 2-3” from this.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020


...Tropical Storm Watch in Effect for the parts of SE TX and
the Upper TX Coast...

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow/Friday]...

A much quieter radar so far this morning (especially when compared
to the last few days), likely owing to the drier air over the Gulf
moving inland just ahead of TD8. Have gone with lower POPs for to-
day and tonight (20-30%) given this subsident pattern. And so with
decreased rain/clouds, the subsequently warmer afternoon temperat-
ures combined with the elevated dewpoints already over the CWA, we
could see some rather high heat index values before the day is out.
Current grids have highs in the mid 90s for most inland locations,
lower 90s along the coast...all of which could translate to 103 to
107 heat index values during the latter part of the afternoon. Not
anticipating any Heat Advisories and/or temperature records at the
time. Winds/convective activity associated with TD8 is expected to
begin moving into our coastal waters late tonight/overnight. While
not that certain with regards to the timing of the initial squalls
for SE TX tomorrow, have kept with the previous forecasts with the
higher POPs moving into the CWA by tomorrow afternoon. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow/Friday Night through Thursday]...

TD8 (or possibly the remnants of Hanna by the start of this forecast
period) will continue to be the main weather focus through the week-
end. Global models are offering up a few different scenarios as this
system moves inland, but the main trend looks to have it linger near
S or SE TX as it weakens. The persistent onshore winds and stream of
very moist/tropical air into the region will help maintain high POPs
(mostly diurnal) through Sun. However, these rain chances could lin-
ger into the start of the week as models are hinting that the mostly
east-west shear axis developing across the TX/LA coasts (in the wake
of TD8) acts as a focus for more diurnal activity. Upper level ridg-
ing building in from the WNW will help to dry (and heat) things back
up by the end of next week. 41

&&


.MARINE...

Easterly winds will back to the northeast as Tropical Depression #8
moves westward. Per the NHC latest the system is expected to become
a tropical storm and a Tropical Storm Watch is already in effect
across the Upper Texas Coastal Waters. Northeast winds strengthen to
15-25 knots Friday morning with tropical storm force winds of 35+
knots possible Friday afternoon over the 20-60nm waters shifting
west into the Matagorda Bay region early Saturday. Moderate to
strong southeasterly winds Saturday afternoon should diminish to
around 15 knots by late Saturday evening. Seas building to 7-10 feet
well offshore with the stronger winds and then subsiding to around 4
feet Sunday.

Tide levels will be on the rise and are already elevated by about a
1 foot. Expecting the peak of beach flooding/strong to very strong
rip currents/higher surf to be Friday afternoon with tide levels of
3-4 feet above MLLW look possible...especially for the areas
southwest of San Luis Pass.

The soundings and guidance does show a brief window Friday night 11
pm-Saturday morning 7-8 am where waterspouts could be a
greater concern.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR at this hour and likely to remain so through 13z. A patch or two
of stratus MVFR ceilings are possible but not confident enough to
put in any of the TAFs. Heating today should see a sct-bkn025 deck
develop then rise quickly with slightly drier air in the east and
northeasterly flow. VCSH possible but coverage so low today that
won`t be carrying it to the TAFs other than for LBX/GLS. Light winds
redevelop tonight and mix of VFR and MVFR with the MVFR conditions
closer to the coast along with the stronger NE winds.

Friday afternoon looks to be very active with showers and
thunderstorms across the main hubs along with moderate northeast
winds. Saturday mainly during the day again for the hubs very active
with showers and thunderstorms.

45

&&

.CLIMATE...
Tied the record high minimum temperature at Hobby airport yesterday
with 80 degrees although the record holder only held it for a
year...2019 loses out to 2020.

45

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 77 95 77 90 / 10 10 50 30 80
Houston (IAH) 94 78 93 79 90 / 20 20 90 60 90
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 90 80 88 / 30 30 90 90 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Kingwood36]

Is there anyway I can make the page from moving down?

[Texaspirate11]

11 a.m. - still disorganized
35 mph
probably wont be named until tomorrow

[don]

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better
organized, with a better-defined center located near the
northeastern end of a broadly curved convective band. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt, and
that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the depression.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/8 kt. A mid-level
ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering
influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build
during the several days. This should cause the depression to turn
more westward by 48-60 h and south of west after about 72 h. The
track guidance is in good agreement with that scenario, and the new
NHC forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the
previous track, lies near the various consensus models. The new
forecast track has the center making landfall along the Texas coast
between 48-60 h.

The depression is in an environment of light shear and over warm
sea surface temperatures, so at least slow strengthening is
expected until landfall. The new intensity forecast, which lies a
little below the intensity consensus, now calls for a peak
intensity of 45 kt before landfall. Data from the Hurricane Hunter
will give more details on whether the structure of the cyclone has
improved or not, which will be incorporated into the next forecast
cycle.


Key Messages

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
tropical storm watch is in effect.

2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains along the Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast. These rains could
result in flash flooding and minor river flooding.

[srainhoutx]

TD 8 looks to be getting a bit better organized as low level convergence increases. I would not be surprised to see TS Hanna this afternoon/evening.

[Cromagnum]

So much for my fishing trip to Port OConnor. This thing looks to come in just west of there and would put me on the NE quadrant

[Rip76]

Latest from Levi Cowan

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 0218888192

[Kingwood36]

Seems like she wont do much today...maybe tomorrow

[Cpv17]

Recon is finding ts force winds. Hanna could be coming soon.

[davidiowx]

wxman57 thinks this will be upgraded to TS Hanna at 2

[Cpv17]

The latest HWRF model has it hitting around Rockport or just north of there. Maybe Seadrift area. Also has some pretty hefty bands for SETX.

[davidiowx]

The latest HWRF model has it hitting around Rockport or just north of there. Maybe Seadrift area. Also has some pretty hefty bands for SETX.

Yep, just a bit South of the 06z model. The 06z run had it approaching Freeport area then turning SW into near Rockport. This latest run is pretty much directly into Rockport from the east. This latest run looks to have initialized right where HH is finding the center 26N 90W.

And it does have some pretty intense rain fall for the area mainly Houston to Cypress area and all SW of there. Cuts off pretty significantly N and E of the city.

[davidiowx]

HMON is into Corpus with minimal effects in Houston other than some scattered rain and high tides, but it is also showing a 975mb Hurricane.. yikes

[Cpv17]

HMON is into Corpus with minimal effects in Houston other than some scattered rain and high tides, but it is also showing a 975mb Hurricane.. yikes

It would have to be a pretty small system to hit Corpus and not give us anything imo.

[snowman65]

don't want to get too far ahead but any thoughts about Gonzalo??

[DoctorMu]

Is there anyway I can make the page from moving down?

I've had the same problem. Make the font larger [command +] - hit both keys simultaneously.

That seems to work.

[DoctorMu]

HMON is into Corpus with minimal effects in Houston other than some scattered rain and high tides, but it is also showing a 975mb Hurricane.. yikes

Rockport doesn't need that after Harvey.

Someone check on the blue shed!

[DoctorMu]

HMON is into Corpus with minimal effects in Houston other than some scattered rain and high tides, but it is also showing a 975mb Hurricane.. yikes

It would have to be a pretty small system to hit Corpus and not give us anything imo.

Yeah, we need a wave or disorganized circulation up in the Brazos Valley if we can get some SE flow. A tighter storm will be a bust for us.

I'm really skeptical about the 80% and 70% rain chances this weekend. We'll see.

[Cpv17]

HMON is into Corpus with minimal effects in Houston other than some scattered rain and high tides, but it is also showing a 975mb Hurricane.. yikes

It would have to be a pretty small system to hit Corpus and not give us anything imo.

Yeah, we need a wave or disorganized circulation up in the Brazos Valley if we can get some SE flow. A tighter storm will be a bust for us.

I'm really skeptical about the 80% and 70% rain chances this weekend. We'll see.

I doubt your area will get anything. I might not even get a whole lot and I’m 2 hours south of you.