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cperk wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:17 am The 12z icon has lost its mind.

The ICON isn’t that great. UKMET, Euro, & GFS are the best as far as I know.

12z GFS shows a left turn towards the Texas coast now also, shows landfall in the Sabine pass.

don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:36 am 12z GFS shows a left turn towards the Texas coast now also, shows landfall in the Sabine pass.

The GFS has this emerging off the NE tip of the Yucatán where other models have it coming off the west coast of the Yucatán/BOC. Could have an impact on where this ends up.

Recon has been tasked to investigate/sample the Bay of Campeche beginning tomorrow afternoon. 2 missions tomorrow and 1 on Wednesday.

The 2pm forecast from the NHC is now at 90/90%.

HWRF model looks like it wants to take this into the middle Texas coast as a legitimate hurricane.

Based on satellite presentation alone, I think its pretty close to already being Cristobal

Looking at 12z GFS it appears this system (90/90 chance to develop) loops around down there and weakens. It isn't our system. A new low forms NE of it and moves up towards TX and our general area. The 0z ECMWF does a similar thing, but more on the NW side of the Yucatan. That new low would be the one to watch.

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:39 pm Looking at 12z GFS it appears this system (90/90 chance to develop) loops around down there and weakens. It isn't our system. A new low forms NE of it and moves up towards TX and our general area. The 0z ECMWF does a similar thing, but more on the NW side of the Yucatan. That new low would be the one to watch.

I agree. This is the point I was trying to make with my earlier post this morning. Anyways the 12z Euro looks like middle Texas coast as well as a pretty good tropical storm or weak hurricane.
Actually I take that back. Makes a hard north turn towards Galveston and into east Texas . So upper Texas coast, not middle.

Models are starting to come into a better consensus on what may happen here in the synoptic flow later this weekend into early next week. Late this week across the SE United States a trough will exit the region allowing for strong ridging to form across the Central United States. 93L gets trapped under the ridging and pushes west before ridging gradually pushes east. The main questions for track here will be how long does a weakness stick across the SE united states before ridging takes control of the mean flow. As for intensity, the GFS shows about 30kts of shear across the Central Gulf over the weekend. Paired with the larger size of this storm, it may take a while for organization to occur. I suspect a TD or TS will be the likely outcome and as is often with these early season storms landfall location will be crucial. Areas west of the center may not see much precip at all. A lot to watch over the coming week.

The NHC will begin issuing Advisories for Tropical Depression 3 at 4 PM CDT

5 day forecast point looks about 150 mi nnw of Merida.

I guess they kept continuity with the 5 day point instead of a new low.

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:13 pm I guess they kept continuity with the 5 day point instead of a new low.

For now it's a blending of the modeling.

TD3 energy transfers more than tracks and re-establishes itself to the NE.

Imo if that second low forms and this one dissipates then I believe that would favor more of a track towards the central Gulf coast.

Very low confidence forecast beyond Wednesday seems to be the thinking reading the full package discussion. Landfall and dissipation is possible as well as moving NNE after meandering in the far SW Gulf. The idea of a new vort rotating around the broad monsoonal gyre is also certainly not off the table. Complicated forecast ahead and worth monitoring. Heavy rainfall threat exists from the Middle Texas Coast on East to Florida.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:29 pm Very low confidence forecast beyond Wednesday seems to be the thinking reading the full package discussion. Landfall and dissipation is possible as well as moving NNE after meandering in the far SW Gulf. The idea of a new vort rotating around the broad monsoonal gyre is also certainly not off the table. Complicated forecast ahead and worth monitoring. Heavy rainfall threat exists from the Middle Texas Coast on East to Florida.

That is an odd cone.. Friday is missing! It seems like they have a depression into a storm that just drives into Mexico and then a TS forms N of the Yucatan suddenly on Saturday..

Wxman57 on storm2k says this is going to the upper TX coast with flooding for east TX and LA. I told them it’s too early to know for sure yet where it’s going and I got attacked saying they trust what he’s saying because he’s a pro met. I just don’t see how you could say where a system is going a whole week out with so many variables at play. I think anyone from TX to FL should keep an eye on it.

He’s really good, well it’s not hard to see how the upper level pattern is going to be this weekend and early next week. Ridge builds in se and will block a storm going to Florida. This is a Texas/sw la system if it develops

Yeah he’s good, upper level pattern for this weekend favors upper Texas and we la