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Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:11 am
by BlueJay
We are having a hefty thunderstorm now.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:20 am
by cperk
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:53 am
Rain chances seem to be getting lower and lower each day for this week. Shouldn’t be surprised though because that’s how 2020 has been. Looks good in the medium/long range only to go somewhat poof the closer it gets. Be lucky to get an inch this week. The GFS was right the whole time. The Euro lost this battle.
I got close to an inch yesterday so if I can squeeze a couple more inches out this week I will be a happy camper.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:31 am
by Cromagnum
I got between 1.5 to 2 inches since Saturday. Looks like showers are more widespread so far today.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:59 am
by don
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:53 am
Rain chances seem to be getting lower and lower each day for this week. Shouldn’t be surprised though because that’s how 2020 has been. Looks good in the medium/long range only to go somewhat poof the closer it gets. Be lucky to get an inch this week. The GFS was right the whole time. The Euro lost this battle.
Not sure what you are looking at, as the radar this morning says otherwise.... It isn't a good idea to look a low resolution global models for rainfall amounts this time of year,especially due to the mesoscale driven nature of this setup. And some areas have already seen more than an inch of rain with more rain to come today and the rest of the week.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:35 am
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:59 am
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:53 am
Rain chances seem to be getting lower and lower each day for this week. Shouldn’t be surprised though because that’s how 2020 has been. Looks good in the medium/long range only to go somewhat poof the closer it gets. Be lucky to get an inch this week. The GFS was right the whole time. The Euro lost this battle.
Not sure what you are looking at, as the radar this morning says otherwise.... It isn't a good idea to look a low resolution global models for rainfall amounts this time of year,especially due to the mesoscale driven nature of this setup. And some areas have already seen more than an inch of rain with more rain to come today and the rest of the week.
I’m looking at the WPC 7 day QPF forecast. It says about 1-2” on average for SETX when it was showing more a couple days ago. We didn’t receive any rainfall over the week like a lot of others on here did. Plus it seems like the theme this year with the rain is that it will look promising a few days out, only to halfway disappear as we get closer. The radar does look nice now though, I will admit that. I’m also comparing the GFS vs Euro precip forecast. The Euro had us getting widespread amounts of 5-10” for several runs in a row where the GFS only said about an inch or two which is looking like the more likely outcome per the WPC QPF forecast.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:45 am
by Stormlover2020
I already got 2 inches just today
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:48 am
by unome
my family who lives where they seldom see mega drought & ashes from fires raining down on your home don't understand why I love cloudy, rainy days so much - this morning's rain was quite welcome
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... s_step=480
not looking forward to Saharan dust though - will have to stay indoors
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:54 am
by Rip76
Pretty violent storm here in Stafford right now.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:04 am
by don
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:35 am
don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:59 am
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:53 am
Rain chances seem to be getting lower and lower each day for this week. Shouldn’t be surprised though because that’s how 2020 has been. Looks good in the medium/long range only to go somewhat poof the closer it gets. Be lucky to get an inch this week. The GFS was right the whole time. The Euro lost this battle.
Not sure what you are looking at, as the radar this morning says otherwise.... It isn't a good idea to look a low resolution global models for rainfall amounts this time of year,especially due to the mesoscale driven nature of this setup. And some areas have already seen more than an inch of rain with more rain to come today and the rest of the week.
I’m looking at the WPC 7 day QPF forecast. It says about 1-2” on average for SETX when it was showing more a couple days ago. We didn’t receive any rainfall over the week like a lot of others on here did. Plus it seems like the theme this year with the rain is that it will look promising a few days out, only to halfway disappear as we get closer. The radar does look nice now though, I will admit that. I’m also comparing the GFS vs Euro precip forecast. The Euro had us getting widespread amounts of 5-10” for several runs in a row where the GFS only said about an inch or two which is looking like the more likely outcome per the WPC QPF forecast.
Keep in mind that the WPC QPF forecast are broad brush and don't account for localized areas that could see much higher totals. Just from this line of storms alone most of metro Houston should see 1-2 inches of rain.My street is already flooded..., in fact based on today average rainfall may need to be raised to 2-4+ inches with localized higher amounts instead of the 1-3 inches on average I said yesterday. As rain chances increase even more starting tomorrow through Thursday.We will have to watch for any stalled boundaries that could be a focus point for slow/training storms as the week progresses.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:15 am
by txbear
About those high PWAT values and supercharged airmass. Mercy this is some efficient rain and lightning production. Healthy doses of nitrogen for the yards.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:16 am
by don
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1051 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020
TXC157-201-221745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0053.200622T1551Z-200622T1745Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fort Bend TX-Harris TX-
1051 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 1245 PM CDT.
* At 1051 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small
stream flooding. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.
Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, northwestern Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri
City, Stafford, Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Astrodome Area, University Place, Macgregor,
Midtown Houston, Greater Third Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Greenway
/ Upper Kirby Area and Fourth Ward.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.
Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:31 am
by Rip76
Hasn’t let up in Stafford at all.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:42 am
by cperk
Just picked up another inch here Richmond and the days young.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:46 am
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:53 am
Rain chances seem to be getting lower and lower each day for this week. Shouldn’t be surprised though because that’s how 2020 has been. Looks good in the medium/long range only to go somewhat poof the closer it gets. Be lucky to get an inch this week. The GFS was right the whole time. The Euro lost this battle.
Generally, true. The good news is that I don't see a Death Ridge forming for the next 10 days.
Survive and advance!
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:48 am
by don
We need to watch Wednesday/Thursday as the 12z models show a pretty potent disturbance moving into Southeast Texas and slowing down over the area.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:05 pm
by Cpv17
It’s absolutely pouring buckets here at my job in Rosenberg. We’re halfway flooded over here already and the lightning/thunder is nonstop. Hoping we picked up some at the house in Wharton.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:06 pm
by Rip76
Stay off the SouthBelt
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:46 pm
by tireman4
All this will help us during the Summer
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:52 pm
by txbear
I know the CWA is progged to get additional storms through Thursday, but I'm curious as to how worked over the atmosphere is and what impact that will have at least on chances for tomorrow. The storms today were pretty hefty, and not sure how much of that energy got zapped today.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:57 pm
by don
The air mass should recover by tomorrow from the influx of moisture from the gulf due to the onshore flow.But Wednesday/Thursday seems to be the days this week that have the best chances of heavy rain.