don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:58 pm
12z Euro shows a "No name"storm, in what would be the equivalent of a tropical depression, the system never closes off so it wouldn't technically be a tropical cyclone but the affects would be virtually the same.With waves of very heavy rain moving into the area.FWIW
Pretty much the way HGX sees it.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night)
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to wane near sunset with
the loss of daytime heating. Skies are also expected to clear by
mid evening with some low clouds redeveloping late tonight over
the far western zones. PW values today were considerably higher
than progged yesterday so am a little nervous with how models are
handling PW values but there is a growing consensus that PW values
will reach 2.00 inches on Saturday. A weak short wave embedded in
the 500 mb flow will approach in the afternoon with convective
temps in the upper 80`s. Showers and thunderstorms should become
more widespread on Saturday and a slow storm motion supports brief
but locally heavy rain with the stronger storms. Will maintain
rain chances into the evening until a bit of subsidence develops
in the wake of the departing short wave. Skies will clear by mid
evening with showers possible near the coast by early Sunday
morning. 43
&&
LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]...
The long-term forecast period continues to be defined by increasing
low-level moisture through the end of the weekend and into the
middle part of next week. As moderate onshore flow remains expected
to persist, global models continue to show a widespread swath of
PWAT values of around 2 inches across SE Texas by Sunday night. With
forecast soundings showing convective temperatures in the low 90s,
MUCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg, and ample low-level moisture,
Sunday and Monday will prove favorable for the development of
showers and thunderstorms as an upper trough axis moves through the
area. Have continued to maintain PoPs of 40-50% as agreement across
model solutions remains good for this period.
Global models start to diverge as we head into the middle of next
week. Over the past several model runs, the ECMWF solution has
developed a cutoff low over the western Gulf by Tuesday night, with
an associated weak coastal low developing to our southwest by
Wednesday morning. PWAT values surge further above 2 in during this
time, and widespread precipitation develops across the region
through Friday as the surface feature pushes further northward. GFS
solution, on the other hand, does not develop this feature and as a
result things remain drier. Canadian has trended towards the
European solution, although has remained less aggressive in terms of
rainfall totals. Have kept PoPs in the vicinity of 40% due to the
current disagreement amongst model sources, however the Wednesday-
Thursday period will need to be monitored closely for the
possibility of heavy rainfall.
Seasonable summertime highs continue through the week with
temperatures reaching the mid 90s in most locations. However, with
the increase in dew points as low-level moisture supply strengthens,
heat index values will rise into the triple digits and heat safety
precautions should be taken.
Cady
MARINE...
High pressure east of the area and low pressure over southern New
Mexico will maintain an onshore flow through the weekend. he
gradient will briefly tighten tonight and will issue a SCEC for
the increase in winds. Winds will drop off tomorrow as the
surface high moves east and the gradient relaxes. The diurnally
driven pattern of weaker daytime winds and stronger night winds
will persist through Monday night. Onshore winds will persist into
the middle of next week. A developing upper level trough over the
Texas coast early next week will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Gulf next week. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 73 92 74 93 / 30 20 30 20 30
Houston (IAH) 92 75 91 76 92 / 30 10 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 89 81 89 / 30 10 20 20 30