FXUS64 KHGX 161707
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1207 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and evening.
Daytime heating, coupled with a corridor of deeper MSTR and a
weak sfc boundary will yield some shra/tsra but most of these
will likely stay east of area TAF sites. Could get some light
ground fog toward sunrise especially SW of the Houston terminals
and mainly impact KSGR and KLBX. Winds overnight will be light.
Generally VFR on Wednesday morning with a weak sfc trough allowing
for some aftn shra/tsra. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/
DISCUSSION...
A corridor of deeper moisture extends across east TX and surface
obs show a weak/diffuse convergent zone over the same general
area. Convective temperatures are in the upper 80`s so with a bit
more heating would expect convection to develop and expand across
the eastern third of the region. Raised PoPs over the eastern
third for this aftn into this evening. Temperature forecast looks
on track and only made minor tweaks to hourly grids. 43
PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 510 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/...
SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow]...
Radar not quite as active this morning across SE TX when compared
to the last couple of ones...with the bulk of the moisture shift-
ing a bit more to the S/SW (into CRP/BRO`s CWAs). However, we are
still expecting some development later this afternoon...fueled by
the slightly higher PWs (1.5-1.7") lingering over East TX and day
time heating. This activity should start off fairly widely scatt-
ered given the lack of any obvious boundaries, but could interact
with the seabreeze if things persist into the very late afternoon
and early evening hours. Rain chances are expected to be a little
lower tomorrow as the deeper moisture wanes despite the more pro-
nounced onshore flow. High temperatures will remain near normals,
in the lower/mid 90s today and tomorrow (and most likely for much
of the coming week). 41
LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Tuesday]...
With the upper low meandering/lingering over the eastern U.S. and
the upper ridge trying to build in from the west across SE TX for
the rest of the week, the forecast looks to be a fairly quiet one.
While things should remain mostly dry, cannot totally rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm (along the seabreeze with daytime
heating) as the onshore flow persists. This pattern is progged to
change by this weekend as the upper low finally weakens/moves off
to the NE
. Shortwave activity (from the NW) will be increasing as
the ridging aloft finally breaks down. This combined with PWs in-
creasing to near 2" could make for a fairly wet weekend. But that
being said, did kind of cap POPs at 30-40% for this time frame...
given the drier trends of late. Extended guidance is hinting that
this unsettled pattern could remain in place through the start of
next week. 41
MARINE...
High pressure sagging down across the Gulf Coastal states with upper
low spinning away over South Carolina. Drier air surged out over the
Gulf and now modification underway and this may pose a slight issue
for the Upper Texas coastal waters with the possibility of some
isolated showers the next few days with more moist air to the
northeast and southwest and a dry corridor across the area. Winds
will be southeasterly and light with the proximity of the surface
high over LA. The typical diurnal pattern in June should continue
with stronger winds (10-15 kts) at night and (5-10 kts) during the
early afternoon hours as seabreeze starts marching inland then
increasing. Saturday is something of a transition day as upper
pattern shifts and SE winds give way to S.
By Sunday/Monday time frame will be looking for a change as deeper
southerly flow takes shape and moisture increases leading to more
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the waters as well as a
little stronger more southerly flow.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 70 94 70 95 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 74 94 73 93 / 20 10 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 78 89 80 88 / 10 0 0 10 0
&&