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Re: June 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 7:28 pm
by vci_guy2003
What happened to the disturbance in the Atlantic, I thought that one was about to be a named storm.
Re: June 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 7:41 pm
by Cpv17
vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 7:28 pm
What happened to the disturbance in the Atlantic, I thought that one was about to be a named storm.
You’re talking about the one way out in the Atlantic like east of Bermuda?
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 8:02 pm
by vci_guy2003
Yes
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 8:38 pm
by tireman4
There will be a lot of model flip flopping during the next few days. The amateur and pro mets will be on hand to help as much as they can, but remember they have to pay attention to models as well. This is my annual PSA ..be patient
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 8:40 pm
by TXWeatherMan
Yeah, gonna be a lot of flip flopping until this thing gets in the gulf and starts to organize.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 8:49 pm
by Cpv17
TXWeatherMan wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 8:40 pm
Yeah, gonna be a lot of flip flopping until this thing gets in the gulf and starts to organize.
Yep. The models need a coc to initialize on.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 8:50 pm
by Cpv17
I think it diminished. I know it was expected to move north into some cooler waters. I don’t ever really think it had much of a chance.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 9:20 pm
by Belmer
As with any developing system, until a low level circulation develops, models will continue to waver. Tomorrow may likely be another wet day, especially south of I-10 and west of 59/69 with PWATS still near 2 inches. A ridge will build in the second half of the week into the weekend and should keep things fairly dry (and hot). The trajectory and strength of that ridge as it builds eastward combined with an incoming shortwave trough will give models fits the next few days. Mid level vorticity does seem to be increasing in the southern BoC and wouldn't be surprised if a weak low level surface low starts organizing tomorrow or Tuesday as shear will relax. As Steve mentioned, NHC has increased the chances to now 60% for development in the next 5 days, and 50% next 48 hours (was 20% this time yesterday). Shows confidence is increasing and could likely have Cristobal sooner rather than later.
I've been reading comments from other social media forums that whatever develops could likely become a hurricane and head to Texas. While either of those solutions are possible, it's impetuous to make those claims when we don't have a well developed circulation yet. These monsoon gyre typically don't overly develop very quickly and usually have a very broad circulation and takes time to tighten these systems up.
Regardless if this develops into a storm or not, tomorrow is June 1st and you should begin getting your hurricane prep ready so you're prepared. After all, this is 2020... Hopefully we'll have more answers than questions near the end of the week.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 9:34 pm
by tireman4
Thank you so much Blake...
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 9:37 pm
by Ptarmigan
Belmer wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 9:20 pm
As with any developing system, until a low level circulation develops, models will continue to waver. Tomorrow may likely be another wet day, especially south of I-10 and west of 59/69 with PWATS still near 2 inches. A ridge will build in the second half of the week into the weekend and should keep things fairly dry (and hot). The trajectory and strength of that ridge as it builds eastward combined with an incoming shortwave trough will give models fits the next few days. Mid level vorticity does seem to be increasing in the southern BoC and wouldn't be surprised if a weak low level surface low starts organizing tomorrow or Wednesday as shear will relax. As Steve mentioned, NHC has increased the chances to now 60% for development in the next 5 days, and 50% next 48 hours (was 20% this time yesterday). Shows confidence is increasing and could likely have Cristobal sooner rather than later.
I've been reading comments from other social media forums that whatever develops could likely become a hurricane and head to Texas. While either of those solutions are possible, it's impetuous to make those claims when we don't have a well developed circulation yet. These monsoon gyre typically don't overly develop very quickly and usually have a very broad circulation and takes time to tighten these systems up.
Regardless if this develops into a storm or not, tomorrow is June 1st and you should begin getting your hurricane prep ready so you're prepared. After all, this is 2020... Hopefully we'll have more answers than questions near the end of the week.
So much variables into this weather forecast, like with COVID-19.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:18 am
by don
The 0z ICON, and CMC show a sharp left turn towards the upper Texas coast similar to today's 12z EURO fwiw.0z GFS shows a upper Texas coast landfall also but without the sharp left turn.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:02 am
by Cpv17
Definitely Texas bound on the 0z Euro. Very strong ridging to the north.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:14 am
by don
Yep it takes it towards Corpus Christi in the 0z run.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:27 am
by srainhoutx
The NHC has raised chances of tropical development to 80% across the board for the Bay of Campeche disturbance.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:44 am
by Cpv17
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:27 am
The NHC has raised chances of tropical development to 80% across the board for the Bay of Campeche disturbance.
The models have this system dissipating over Mexico in a few days, but then another area emerging over the Gulf after that. Wondering if it’ll keep the same name or if we’ll move on to the D name since it looks to be a different feature?
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:25 am
by djmike
Normally I look forward to hurricane season and the excitement of a storm forming. Now it POSSIBLY heading our direction as a hurricane. 2020 has already been hard for many. Including myself. Ive already had two covid family members suffer. This quarantine. These riots. The looting. People losing jobs. Economy downturn. Im still not at work and working from home. I usually love this time of year but this year is different and I believe not only myself but many others will officially lose it if we get a hurricane to add to this 2020 disastrous list. Im also in an area where it floods bad. Had to rebuild twice from flooding after Harvey and Imelda here in Beaumont. Hopefully things start taking a turn for the better and soon. I love hurricane season and watching storms form but this year, I just dont have the power and will anymore. Unfortunately SOMEONE will get this storm and hopefully when it comes ashore, many folks wont be affected much and it stays well below disastrous level. Prayers for all.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:59 am
by Cpv17
Many of the 0z Euro ensemble members have this coming to southeast Texas as anywhere between a strong tropical storm to a moderate hurricane. As always though, follow what the folks say from the NHC. I’m just a weather enthusiast with a little more knowledge than the average person.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:17 am
by cperk
The 12z icon has lost its mind.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:19 am
by cperk
It has a 974mb hurricane coming into around Galveston on 6/7.
Re: June 2020: Watching The Bay Of Campeche/Invest 93L
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:24 am
by sau27
I am genuinely curious how the lack of aircraft soundings will impact modeling for storms like this as they get closer to land. I know the hurricane hunters sample the environment around the storm but the downstream conditions are vitally important for the forecast.