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The last few years what I’ve noticed is that a lot of the BOC storms, turn West and get buried into Mexico. I’m sure due to The climatology in early June.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 2:56 pm The last few years what I’ve noticed is that a lot of the BOC storms, turn West and get buried into Mexico. I’m sure due to The climatology in early June.

Yes and it looks like the same is going to happen to tropical storm Amanda. What we need to watch for the gulf coast is not necessarily Amanda itself, but a separate low that forms from the overall gyre associated with Amanda, that's what the EURO and GFS are showing developing. So we could end up with 2 systems in the gulf next week, one being Amanda which looks to redevelop in the BOC and move inland into Mexico,and a separate system that develops from the gyre circulation. 12z Euro ensembles have shifted more towards the west fwiw,let the flip flopping begin...lol.

Euro?

So let me get this straight. 3rd storm would set a record for formation this early.... We have TD Amanda, whom will likely spend a brief stint in Mexico, transition gender to become TS/H Cristobal, then potentially make landfall on the US. Very fitting for 2020.

Where is the CTRL-ALT-DEL for 2020 again?

What level are we on for jumanji? Im getting tired of this game. 2 systems in the gulf? Sounds about right for 2020.

Rainfall rates are pretty high with these storms today its raining cats and dogs outside right now.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 3:32 pmEuro?

Today’s 12z operational Euro run had it hitting around Matagorda as a tropical storm.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

TXC039-157-201-312230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0046.200531T2036Z-200531T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brazoria TX-Fort Bend TX-Harris TX-
336 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
East Central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pearland, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, West
University Place, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Astrodome Area,
Macgregor, University Place, Greater Third Ward, Midtown Houston,
Neartown / Montrose, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Fourth Ward,
Greater Eastwood, Downtown Houston, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area,
Second Ward and Memorial Park.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

18z GFS has a landfall somewhere near Rockport it looks like. Then it meanders around slowly.

Tropical Forecaster Bevin ups chances for a new Tropical Depression to possibly form in the Bay of Campeche to 50% within 2 days and 60% chance within 5 days. Looks like chances for Cristobal are increasing.

What happened to the disturbance in the Atlantic, I thought that one was about to be a named storm.

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 7:28 pm What happened to the disturbance in the Atlantic, I thought that one was about to be a named storm.

You’re talking about the one way out in the Atlantic like east of Bermuda?

Yes

There will be a lot of model flip flopping during the next few days. The amateur and pro mets will be on hand to help as much as they can, but remember they have to pay attention to models as well. This is my annual PSA ..be patient

Yeah, gonna be a lot of flip flopping until this thing gets in the gulf and starts to organize.

TXWeatherMan wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 8:40 pm Yeah, gonna be a lot of flip flopping until this thing gets in the gulf and starts to organize.

Yep. The models need a coc to initialize on.

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 8:02 pmYes

I think it diminished. I know it was expected to move north into some cooler waters. I don’t ever really think it had much of a chance.

As with any developing system, until a low level circulation develops, models will continue to waver. Tomorrow may likely be another wet day, especially south of I-10 and west of 59/69 with PWATS still near 2 inches. A ridge will build in the second half of the week into the weekend and should keep things fairly dry (and hot). The trajectory and strength of that ridge as it builds eastward combined with an incoming shortwave trough will give models fits the next few days. Mid level vorticity does seem to be increasing in the southern BoC and wouldn't be surprised if a weak low level surface low starts organizing tomorrow or Tuesday as shear will relax. As Steve mentioned, NHC has increased the chances to now 60% for development in the next 5 days, and 50% next 48 hours (was 20% this time yesterday). Shows confidence is increasing and could likely have Cristobal sooner rather than later.

I've been reading comments from other social media forums that whatever develops could likely become a hurricane and head to Texas. While either of those solutions are possible, it's impetuous to make those claims when we don't have a well developed circulation yet. These monsoon gyre typically don't overly develop very quickly and usually have a very broad circulation and takes time to tighten these systems up.

Regardless if this develops into a storm or not, tomorrow is June 1st and you should begin getting your hurricane prep ready so you're prepared. After all, this is 2020... Hopefully we'll have more answers than questions near the end of the week.

Thank you so much Blake...

Belmer wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 9:20 pm As with any developing system, until a low level circulation develops, models will continue to waver. Tomorrow may likely be another wet day, especially south of I-10 and west of 59/69 with PWATS still near 2 inches. A ridge will build in the second half of the week into the weekend and should keep things fairly dry (and hot). The trajectory and strength of that ridge as it builds eastward combined with an incoming shortwave trough will give models fits the next few days. Mid level vorticity does seem to be increasing in the southern BoC and wouldn't be surprised if a weak low level surface low starts organizing tomorrow or Wednesday as shear will relax. As Steve mentioned, NHC has increased the chances to now 60% for development in the next 5 days, and 50% next 48 hours (was 20% this time yesterday). Shows confidence is increasing and could likely have Cristobal sooner rather than later.

I've been reading comments from other social media forums that whatever develops could likely become a hurricane and head to Texas. While either of those solutions are possible, it's impetuous to make those claims when we don't have a well developed circulation yet. These monsoon gyre typically don't overly develop very quickly and usually have a very broad circulation and takes time to tighten these systems up.

Regardless if this develops into a storm or not, tomorrow is June 1st and you should begin getting your hurricane prep ready so you're prepared. After all, this is 2020... Hopefully we'll have more answers than questions near the end of the week.

So much variables into this weather forecast, like with COVID-19.