June 2020
Very Interesting indeed.
Core rain will probably set up over me in Beaumont. Seems we always get the Niagara falls here. ....but seriously, yes it could be anywhere and prob wont know till it’s actually happening. Its been nothing but sun and HOT here today. All i can think about is fuel for the fire....When do the rains start tonight? Early? Late? Morning?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
It will be hit and miss as the circulation and front move SE. More hit than miss.
Hope we get hit.
Hope we get hit.
Kinda cool that the EURO Tropical ensembles are picking up on the cyclogenisis of the system. It looks like a low to mid level circulation develops and being so close to the gulf it taps into the moisture and behaves somewhat like an "inland depression". A similar system affected Louisiana back in August 2016.
- Attachments
-
Right. The center of circulation is drifting SE on Hwy 6 near Waco towards College Station. Development and movement of showers over the next 6 hours should be interesting.don wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:00 pm Kinda cool that the EURO Tropical ensembles are picking up on the cyclogenisis of the system. It looks like a low to mid level circulation develops and being so close to the gulf it taps into the moisture and behaves somewhat like an "inland depression". A similar system affected Louisiana back in August 2016.
Interesting here in eastern Harris County. Sky is this haze gray, but the sun is shining fiercely through it. Very hot and humid.
HRRR model seems to think the heaviest rains will be well south of Houston.
Latest from the WPC - notes that the latest HRRR runs might not have the best handle on the setup.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0371
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
625 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020
Areas affected...East-Central to Southeast TX...West-Central to
Northwest LA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 232225Z - 240425Z
SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will tend to become more
numerous going through the evening and overnight hours. Very heavy
rainfall is expected locally from slow-moving and concentrated
bands/clusters of convection which will foster a growing threat
for flash flooding.
DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows a
very well-defined MCV moving slowly through east-central areas of
TX which is also driving a surface low along with an attendant
front. The airmass across the greater southeast TX coastal plain
and areas of western LA is moderate to strongly unstable with
MLCAPE values up around 2500 j/kg. This airmass ahead of the front
coupled with an uptick in low-level moisture convergence ahead of
the MCV-related forcing/dynamics is already fostering the
development and expansion of several clusters of relatively
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms, and especially just east of
the surface low center.
Over the next several hours, the slow-moving MCV is expected to
favor some locally focused clusters and bands of heavy rainfall as
showers and thunderstorms tend to develop and becoming more
closely aligned with the corridors of stronger low-level moisture
convergence and instability transport near the front and ahead of
the low center which will involve increasingly more areas of the
eastern and southeast TX coastal plain and also some adjacent
areas of west-central to northwest LA where some surface trough
activity is noted. Low-level inflow in itself is not expected to
be strong, but the vort energy and forcing along the front is
expected to be persistent with a gradual settling of the energy
down to the southeast with time. As this occurs, there will tend
to be more convective development farther south along the trailing
cold front.
The HRRR/HRRRx guidance is already a bit late with some of the
convective initiation/activity impacting areas of eastern TX, but
the experimental WoFS guidance does appear to have a reasonably
good handle of the current activity and does favor more
concentrated clusters/bands of convection evolving over the next
several hours.
The WoFS guidance supports some areal coverage amounts of 2 to 4
inches of rain going through late evening, with some ensemble
member output suggesting isolated 5 to 6 inch totals. Multiple
members of the 12Z/18Z HREF guidance suggest similar potential and
especially the NAM-conest prior to 06Z. Given the tropical nature
of the airmass with PWs approaching 2 inches, these heavier
rainfall totals are expected.
Given the set-up, areas of flash flooding will become increasingly
likely going through the evening and overnight time frame.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0371
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
625 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020
Areas affected...East-Central to Southeast TX...West-Central to
Northwest LA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 232225Z - 240425Z
SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will tend to become more
numerous going through the evening and overnight hours. Very heavy
rainfall is expected locally from slow-moving and concentrated
bands/clusters of convection which will foster a growing threat
for flash flooding.
DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows a
very well-defined MCV moving slowly through east-central areas of
TX which is also driving a surface low along with an attendant
front. The airmass across the greater southeast TX coastal plain
and areas of western LA is moderate to strongly unstable with
MLCAPE values up around 2500 j/kg. This airmass ahead of the front
coupled with an uptick in low-level moisture convergence ahead of
the MCV-related forcing/dynamics is already fostering the
development and expansion of several clusters of relatively
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms, and especially just east of
the surface low center.
Over the next several hours, the slow-moving MCV is expected to
favor some locally focused clusters and bands of heavy rainfall as
showers and thunderstorms tend to develop and becoming more
closely aligned with the corridors of stronger low-level moisture
convergence and instability transport near the front and ahead of
the low center which will involve increasingly more areas of the
eastern and southeast TX coastal plain and also some adjacent
areas of west-central to northwest LA where some surface trough
activity is noted. Low-level inflow in itself is not expected to
be strong, but the vort energy and forcing along the front is
expected to be persistent with a gradual settling of the energy
down to the southeast with time. As this occurs, there will tend
to be more convective development farther south along the trailing
cold front.
The HRRR/HRRRx guidance is already a bit late with some of the
convective initiation/activity impacting areas of eastern TX, but
the experimental WoFS guidance does appear to have a reasonably
good handle of the current activity and does favor more
concentrated clusters/bands of convection evolving over the next
several hours.
The WoFS guidance supports some areal coverage amounts of 2 to 4
inches of rain going through late evening, with some ensemble
member output suggesting isolated 5 to 6 inch totals. Multiple
members of the 12Z/18Z HREF guidance suggest similar potential and
especially the NAM-conest prior to 06Z. Given the tropical nature
of the airmass with PWs approaching 2 inches, these heavier
rainfall totals are expected.
Given the set-up, areas of flash flooding will become increasingly
likely going through the evening and overnight time frame.
- Attachments
-
What time are we talking about to kick all this off?
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Around 10-2 am it seems like
Team #NeverSummer
Blob over the gulf finally seems to have died off. Moisture return on the way, I would suspect. Radar starting to look colorful albeit scattered and can definitely see the rotation around the low.
Core rain events are something that I haven’t quite gotten a handle on, but seems like the expectation is that the night time cooling and sufficient inflow of moisture will trigger another efficient rainmaker?
Core rain events are something that I haven’t quite gotten a handle on, but seems like the expectation is that the night time cooling and sufficient inflow of moisture will trigger another efficient rainmaker?
Looks like it may be starting to crank up.
I was just thinking it looked pretty lackluster myself.
Ramping up now.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
122 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Texas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 240522Z - 241145Z
Summary...Thunderstorms will expand in coverage this morning and
produce locally heavy rainfall. Through 12Z /7 AM CDT/ localized
amounts of 3-5" will be possible and some instances of flash
flooding are likely.
Discussion...From a well-defined MCV noted in satellite and radar
imagery over portions of southeast Texas, a front has draped
across the area with some interaction with a lingering boundary
closer to the TX/LA gulf coast. Ahead of this feature, there
continues to be very warm/moist air pooling characterized by
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, PWs around 2", and MUCAPE at
or above 2000 J/kg.
Over the next several hours, the MCV is forecast to slowly drift
southward, favoring a continuous fetch of warm/moist air impinging
on the surface boundary/front over the inland areas of southeast
Texas. This pivoting should put a focus of heavy rainfall
somewhere with additional redevelopment likely on the fringes.
Despite limited/weak moisture transport into the area, the
forcing/convergence from the MCV alone is expected to be enough of
a focusing mechanism to drive the heavy rainfall.
The 00Z HREF probabilities remain quite bullish for QPF totals
tonight - maximizing at 100 percent for 1"/hr totals for several
hours and a 50-70 percent chance of 2"/hr totals after 07Z. This
also leads to high probabilities of exceeding the 6-hr FFG and a
slight-moderate signal (30-40 percent) for the 6-hr QPF ending 12Z
to exceed the 10 year ARI. Looking at the latest WoFS runs, it
shows similar thinking to the other hi-res guidance with its
ensemble 50th percentile showing 3" totals just through 10Z alone
with a good signal for 1-2"/hr totals with a slight signal for 5"+
through 10Z alone (heavy rainfall expected to continue beyond end
of WoFS current run).
The combination of the slow storm motions just along/ahead of the
slow moving MCV, more than sufficient environmental parameters
(moisture/instability/convergence), and potential duration over
sensitive areas (including urban areas), some instances of flash
flooding will be likely.
Taylor
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
122 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Texas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 240522Z - 241145Z
Summary...Thunderstorms will expand in coverage this morning and
produce locally heavy rainfall. Through 12Z /7 AM CDT/ localized
amounts of 3-5" will be possible and some instances of flash
flooding are likely.
Discussion...From a well-defined MCV noted in satellite and radar
imagery over portions of southeast Texas, a front has draped
across the area with some interaction with a lingering boundary
closer to the TX/LA gulf coast. Ahead of this feature, there
continues to be very warm/moist air pooling characterized by
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, PWs around 2", and MUCAPE at
or above 2000 J/kg.
Over the next several hours, the MCV is forecast to slowly drift
southward, favoring a continuous fetch of warm/moist air impinging
on the surface boundary/front over the inland areas of southeast
Texas. This pivoting should put a focus of heavy rainfall
somewhere with additional redevelopment likely on the fringes.
Despite limited/weak moisture transport into the area, the
forcing/convergence from the MCV alone is expected to be enough of
a focusing mechanism to drive the heavy rainfall.
The 00Z HREF probabilities remain quite bullish for QPF totals
tonight - maximizing at 100 percent for 1"/hr totals for several
hours and a 50-70 percent chance of 2"/hr totals after 07Z. This
also leads to high probabilities of exceeding the 6-hr FFG and a
slight-moderate signal (30-40 percent) for the 6-hr QPF ending 12Z
to exceed the 10 year ARI. Looking at the latest WoFS runs, it
shows similar thinking to the other hi-res guidance with its
ensemble 50th percentile showing 3" totals just through 10Z alone
with a good signal for 1-2"/hr totals with a slight signal for 5"+
through 10Z alone (heavy rainfall expected to continue beyond end
of WoFS current run).
The combination of the slow storm motions just along/ahead of the
slow moving MCV, more than sufficient environmental parameters
(moisture/instability/convergence), and potential duration over
sensitive areas (including urban areas), some instances of flash
flooding will be likely.
Taylor
- Attachments
-
Almost all of the really heavy action has been well to the south. Been raining too hard to check my rain gauge but I bet its a lot
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 241147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020
.AVIATION...
A line of shra/tsra is moving east at a pretty good clip and
will likely be east of area TAF sites by 12z with the exceptions
of KGLS and KLBX. Will TEMPO coastal sites through 13z for
thunder and carry VCSH elsewhere. A mix of IFR/NVFR ceilings are
impacting northern TAF sites and these cigs are expected to
dissipate by mid morning with VFR conds developing areawide. With
the upper low remaining over the area today, should get some aftn
shra/tsra to redevelop. Another break in precip is expected this
evening but later tonight, strong sfc surface and moisture flux
convergence should allow for showers and storms to redevelop
especially near coastal TAF sites. A mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings are
also expected to redevelop. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020/
UPDATE...
Radar trends not looking too impressive with little to no
backbuilding behind this initial burst of convection. Have gone
back and forth on whether to keep/extend the FFA but just can`t
justify it based on current radar/rainfall rates. Will allow the
FFA to expire at 7 AM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020/
SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
A weak upper low over the Brazos Valley will continue to move
slowly E-SE today. A surge of moisture on the east side of this
feature will keep rain chances on the high side today, especially
this morning. Rainfall was spotty yesterday and last night but
parts of the area received between 4 and 6 inches of rain
including 7.40 inches NE of Sebastopol, 6.00 inches near Groveton
and a swath of 3 to 4 inches across Walker county. The 06z HRRR
is aggressive with rain chances and QPF today and and it`s
solution is supported by other CAMs. It looks like another 1 to 3
inches of rain today over mainly the southern and coastal portions
of the area. As a precaution, will extend the FFA through 15z (10
AM) in case pockets of heavy rain develop. A weak disturbance
rotating around the upper low will bring some aftn convection
around the west and south side of the low late this aftn. It`s
possible that the air mass will be worked over this morning that
conds might be too stable for aftn convection will refire but the
airmass is pretty moist so will continue to carry likely PoPS late
today. Clouds and precip should keep temperatures below climo so
MaxT will probably only get into the upper 80`s.
The upper low begins to lose it`s identity and starts getting
squeezed by expanding ridges to the east and to the west. That
said, what ever is left of the low leaves a weakness across the
upper Texas coast. Strong moisture flux convergence along the
coast is progged to develop later tonight so will again carry
likely PoPs along the coast and taper them lower inland.
Differential heating, the weakness aloft and a weak sea breeze
will allow for more showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. High
temperatures on Thursday look similar to today but with a bit more
sun, it`ll probably be a couple of degrees warmer. 43
LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Wednesday]...
Unstable air mass along with PWs still lurking above 2+ inches will
continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms across
portions of Southeast Texas well into Thursday night. We may have a
some respite overnight, albeit short lived. Another surge of
moisture from the Gulf will be moving into the local area during the
day Friday. This will once again add fuel to the flame and likely
flare up a few storms across the area, particularly in the late
morning to afternoon timeframe. Thereafter, activity will dissipate
in the evening with only slight chances of development expected
Friday night.
The local weather will gradually transition to a more summertime
pattern this weekend through the upcoming week. Intrusion of Saharan
dust moving from the Caribbean will make its way in this weekend,
which will help limit rain development. The dust will create hazy
skies and pretty sunsets, but could also aggravate respiratory issues
for some folks. Weather activity should be more diurnal in nature
thanks to the slightly lower PWs and dust, and should be developing
mainly in the late mornings and afternoons, dissipating by the
evenings. By next week, area of high pressure in the mid to upper
levels will build across TX, providing some subsidence. Though we
will continue to have moisture transport with the continuous onshore
wind flow, development will be limited as high pressure holds over
our local area through midweek. For this reason, PoPs of up to 30%
were included each day next week.
Mellow high temperatures (upper 80s) will continue through the end
of the work week, rising into the low 90s this weekend in response
to lower cloud coverage and dust. Rising heights next week will
yield high temperatures closer to the mid 90s range. Heat indicies
will also be on the rise, reaching the low 100s Monday through
Wednesday. 24
MARINE...
High pressure over the SE U.S. and low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies will maintain onshore winds through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten at times and winds will
occasionally reach SCEC criteria. Wind and seas will be higher in
and near showers and storms today and again tomorrow. Water
levels today will be slightly elevated and could exceed 3.0 feet
at high tide. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 71 90 73 88 / 60 30 40 30 50
Houston (IAH) 86 74 89 77 89 / 80 50 70 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 78 88 82 86 / 90 70 70 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...
Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...
Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...
Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...
Wharton.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43
FXUS64 KHGX 241147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020
.AVIATION...
A line of shra/tsra is moving east at a pretty good clip and
will likely be east of area TAF sites by 12z with the exceptions
of KGLS and KLBX. Will TEMPO coastal sites through 13z for
thunder and carry VCSH elsewhere. A mix of IFR/NVFR ceilings are
impacting northern TAF sites and these cigs are expected to
dissipate by mid morning with VFR conds developing areawide. With
the upper low remaining over the area today, should get some aftn
shra/tsra to redevelop. Another break in precip is expected this
evening but later tonight, strong sfc surface and moisture flux
convergence should allow for showers and storms to redevelop
especially near coastal TAF sites. A mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings are
also expected to redevelop. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020/
UPDATE...
Radar trends not looking too impressive with little to no
backbuilding behind this initial burst of convection. Have gone
back and forth on whether to keep/extend the FFA but just can`t
justify it based on current radar/rainfall rates. Will allow the
FFA to expire at 7 AM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020/
SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
A weak upper low over the Brazos Valley will continue to move
slowly E-SE today. A surge of moisture on the east side of this
feature will keep rain chances on the high side today, especially
this morning. Rainfall was spotty yesterday and last night but
parts of the area received between 4 and 6 inches of rain
including 7.40 inches NE of Sebastopol, 6.00 inches near Groveton
and a swath of 3 to 4 inches across Walker county. The 06z HRRR
is aggressive with rain chances and QPF today and and it`s
solution is supported by other CAMs. It looks like another 1 to 3
inches of rain today over mainly the southern and coastal portions
of the area. As a precaution, will extend the FFA through 15z (10
AM) in case pockets of heavy rain develop. A weak disturbance
rotating around the upper low will bring some aftn convection
around the west and south side of the low late this aftn. It`s
possible that the air mass will be worked over this morning that
conds might be too stable for aftn convection will refire but the
airmass is pretty moist so will continue to carry likely PoPS late
today. Clouds and precip should keep temperatures below climo so
MaxT will probably only get into the upper 80`s.
The upper low begins to lose it`s identity and starts getting
squeezed by expanding ridges to the east and to the west. That
said, what ever is left of the low leaves a weakness across the
upper Texas coast. Strong moisture flux convergence along the
coast is progged to develop later tonight so will again carry
likely PoPs along the coast and taper them lower inland.
Differential heating, the weakness aloft and a weak sea breeze
will allow for more showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. High
temperatures on Thursday look similar to today but with a bit more
sun, it`ll probably be a couple of degrees warmer. 43
LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Wednesday]...
Unstable air mass along with PWs still lurking above 2+ inches will
continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms across
portions of Southeast Texas well into Thursday night. We may have a
some respite overnight, albeit short lived. Another surge of
moisture from the Gulf will be moving into the local area during the
day Friday. This will once again add fuel to the flame and likely
flare up a few storms across the area, particularly in the late
morning to afternoon timeframe. Thereafter, activity will dissipate
in the evening with only slight chances of development expected
Friday night.
The local weather will gradually transition to a more summertime
pattern this weekend through the upcoming week. Intrusion of Saharan
dust moving from the Caribbean will make its way in this weekend,
which will help limit rain development. The dust will create hazy
skies and pretty sunsets, but could also aggravate respiratory issues
for some folks. Weather activity should be more diurnal in nature
thanks to the slightly lower PWs and dust, and should be developing
mainly in the late mornings and afternoons, dissipating by the
evenings. By next week, area of high pressure in the mid to upper
levels will build across TX, providing some subsidence. Though we
will continue to have moisture transport with the continuous onshore
wind flow, development will be limited as high pressure holds over
our local area through midweek. For this reason, PoPs of up to 30%
were included each day next week.
Mellow high temperatures (upper 80s) will continue through the end
of the work week, rising into the low 90s this weekend in response
to lower cloud coverage and dust. Rising heights next week will
yield high temperatures closer to the mid 90s range. Heat indicies
will also be on the rise, reaching the low 100s Monday through
Wednesday. 24
MARINE...
High pressure over the SE U.S. and low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies will maintain onshore winds through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten at times and winds will
occasionally reach SCEC criteria. Wind and seas will be higher in
and near showers and storms today and again tomorrow. Water
levels today will be slightly elevated and could exceed 3.0 feet
at high tide. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 71 90 73 88 / 60 30 40 30 50
Houston (IAH) 86 74 89 77 89 / 80 50 70 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 78 88 82 86 / 90 70 70 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...
Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...
Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...
Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...
Wharton.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43
Ok. I thought this was supposed to be waaay more eventful than what it was? What happened?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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