June 2020

[Andrew]

18z runs are always bad

That is not true. 18z runs statistically show no difference from 12z runs with how much data is consistently ingested by the models.

[Stormlover2020]

I’m just letting you know what my 2 pro buddies tell me, off time models are usually worthless outside of near term versions, The true data isn’t out during that time. Mainly 00z and 12z

[Scott747]

Unless something has changed recently there is no bigger myth in the modeling world that the off hour runs are inferior. The data assimilation is almost equal and the verification statistics are not much different.

[Andrew]

I’m just letting you know what my 2 pro buddies tell me, off time models are usually worthless outside of near term versions, The true data isn’t out during that time. Mainly 00z and 12z

As a Meteorologist myself, I can say that this is a common myth within the community, and the reasoning behind the myth is usually associated with soundings being ingested on the 00z and 12z runs. At times you may see more accurate data with a certain model run when weather features enter more data-rich environments (like North America for example) or a recon mission is out, but statistically, the accuracy from 00z and 12z to 06z and 18z is negligible. Models receive such a large chunk of their data from satellites and non-radiosonde sources that we often don't see much of a difference. Here is a conversation about it from American Weather back in 2012 and you can imagine how far we have improved since then.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/321 ... -18z-runs/

[djmike]

Whens the next euro run?

[Cpv17]

Whens the next euro run?

The 0z Euro should start around 12:45am and it usually finishes about 2am.

[davidiowx]

This heat SUCKS!!! Ugh I love this city but this heat is getting old

[Stormlover2020]

https://stormtrack.org/community/thread ... ers.27687/


Interested stuff no doubt

[Cromagnum]

This heat SUCKS!!! Ugh I love this city but this heat is getting old

Suppose to hit 99 actual next week with heat indices above 105.

[jasons2k]

We’ve come a long way since 2005 and the days of the GFDL being a trailblazer. It’s just not the same as it used to be (thankfully). The NHC has been scary accurate the last few seasons. It’s a rare occasion now for things to shift around like they used to.

[davidiowx]

This heat SUCKS!!! Ugh I love this city but this heat is getting old

Suppose to hit 99 actual next week with heat indices above 105.

Yep.. if Cristobal goes where the models/forecast have it, it may be hotter than that with drier air in place. I just can’t deal with another 2011 here. That was beyond brutal!

[davidiowx]

We’ve come a long way since 2005 and the days of the GFDL being a trailblazer. It’s just not the same as it used to be (thankfully). The NHC has been scary accurate the last few seasons. It’s a rare occasion now for things to shift around like they used to.

To say the least... I mean heck, Harvey was dead on accurate and the ECMWF nailed it. I’ve never seen such consistency that I can remember and it sure came to reality. The NHC does one hell of a job! There can always be a curveball in there but dang they’re good!

[Rip76]

I’ll never doubt the NHC after Harvey.
Ever.

[DoctorMu]

We’ve come a long way since 2005 and the days of the GFDL being a trailblazer. It’s just not the same as it used to be (thankfully). The NHC has been scary accurate the last few seasons. It’s a rare occasion now for things to shift around like they used to.

My guess is that the "initial conditions" would have a largett effect on the outrcome of iterations as we move forward in time.

Given Cristobal is a mess over the Yucatan, initial conditions could vary significantly, causing some models to shift wildly back and forth before settling closer to convergence.

[DoctorMu]

This heat SUCKS!!! Ugh I love this city but this heat is getting old

Suppose to hit 99 actual next week with heat indices above 105.

Yep.. if Cristobal goes where the models/forecast have it, it may be hotter than that with drier air in place. I just can’t deal with another 2011 here. That was beyond brutal!

OMG, don't even mention 2011. Lost a couple of trees, another never recovered. That fire near Bastrop in the pine forest was devastating.

[tireman4]

2011 should never be spoken here again..lol

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Current satellite imagery shows a few areas of low clouds
developing around the metro area, but for the most part things
should remain within VFR thresholds for the duration of the TAF
period. Expect light winds to continue today with the surface
pressure gradient remaining week; wind speeds should stay below 10
knots. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms (mainly south of
I-10) are possible along the advancing sea breeze this afternoon,
and have decided to include VCSH wording due to expected sparse
coverage.

Cady


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...

With Tropical Depression Cristobal still remaining over land near
the Bay of Campeche, the immediate forecast term will continue to
be characterized by the warm and humid conditions that we`ve been
experiencing for the better part of a week across SE Texas. Latest
satellite imagery is showing some lower cloud decks beginning to
build in to our west, with this activity expected to continue
over the next several hours. With light winds persisting, forecast
soundings indicating decent low-level saturation, and SREF
probabilistic guidance favoring some brief reduced visibilities,
could see some areas of fog develop this morning west of I-45.
Upon daytime heating, expect any low decks and fog to dissipate.

More of the same in terms of temperatures today with highs once
again expected to climb back into the low 90s across most of the
CWA. With forecast soundings indicating convective temps of
around 90-92 and fairly steep low-level lapse rates, could see
some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
have maintained PoPs just under 20% across the metro area as a
result. Overnight lows also continue to follow the week`s trend
with coastal areas staying the upper 70s and inland areas dipping
into the lower 70s.

A slight increase in temperatures comes on Saturday as upper
ridging continues to build into the central CONUS, with much of
the Houston metro and northern counties looking to reach the mid
90s. A slight chance of showers and storms comes again in the
afternoon hours, once again driven by diurnal heating.

Cady

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

The first couple days of the long term period will continue to be
dominated by the track of Cristobal. Based on the most recent
forecast from the National Hurricane Center (little change made
from the previous advisories), northward moving Cristobal will be
in the central Gulf of Mexico Saturday night. It is possible the
outer edges of our Gulf waters could begin seeing some rain before
sunrise Sunday morning, but better/increasing chances look to
come during the day on Sunday with activity possibly spreading
inland across parts of our eastern counties as the day progresses.
With Cristobal expected to move inland in/around the central
Louisiana coast Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over here Sunday night and on into Monday with the higher
chances generally near and to the east of Interstate 45 and the
very low to near zero rain chances across our far western
counties. Rains are expected to come to an end Monday evening.
There is still time for Cristobal to end up further west than
expected (more rain/wind for our location) or further east than
expected (less rain/wind for our locations). Make sure you keep
updated with the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center, from our office and from our neighboring National Weather
Service offices.

Hot temperatures (in the 90s) are still in the forecast for
Sunday before rains arrive and again on Tuesday and Wednesday as
Cristobal moves out of the picture (the warmest day looks like
Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100).
High temperatures look to remain on the very warm side for the
remainder even with a cold frontal passage in a Tuesday night-
Wednesday morning time period. Some rain could develop with this
front on Wednesday, but a majority of the area will stay dry.

42

MARINE...

Light winds and seas look to continue through Friday as the
surface pressure gradient remains fairly weak across the area. A
pattern shift comes, however, as Tropical Depression Cristobal
approaches the Gulf Coast in the latter part of the weekend.
Although the center of circulation remains forecast to pass to our
east at tropical storm strength, its approach will bring an
increase in both winds and seas beginning on Saturday and lasting
into early next week. With uncertainty remaining in its eventual
track, mariners should continue to monitor the storm over the next
several days.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 73 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 74 94 76 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 88 79 90 / 20 10 10 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

Best Track 12 Z

[cperk]

I don’t know about you guys but I’m sick and tired of cristobal and wish it would just dissipate in the boc right now. We have been watching this storm for days it’s only moved a couple hundred miles at best this is agonizing.

[djmike]

I don’t know about you guys but I’m sick and tired of cristobal and wish it would just dissipate in the boc right now. We have been watching this storm for days it’s only moved a couple hundred miles at best this is agonizing.

I know what you mean. I was watching every hour but now I give up and am just checking once or twice. Just about done with him. Lol