June 2020
Even if this storm doesn’t come here, our odds here in SETX this hurricane season of getting hit are probably twice that of normal. So yeah, be prepared! This looks like an active season.
It seems every year we get an early storm that gets the board excited for a bit when a few model runs brings a storm in SE Texas until the storm eventually goes into Mexico or Louisiana. Based on nothing other than that I'm betting the storm goes into LA because Mexico doesn't really seem in the cards right now.
Yeah its looKing more and more likely Tx will be spared...
Storms are notorious for doing the famous rightward shifts from early first off projections. Sad to say, but first sets of models, you can bet it wont be going there. Another reason we try to explain not to panic early on because it will likely shift right and away. Im not staying up late anymore on Cristobal... yes I know its only Thursday and we have at least till Sunday and storms have done some crazy things in the gulf before and never say never, but unfortunately the trend is your friend and its been a whole lot more shifts east than west. When you wake up and no post on wxinf in almost 12 hrs, lol...the excitement has left...lol... I get excited for storms and always have. My weather peeps know what I mean. Its fascinating to watch or be in a hurricane. I always wish not for a direct hit and destruction, but close enough to give some excitement rather than hot boring days which unfortunately looks like what we will have if anything from Cristobal...Ill be watching periodically, but yeah, the excitement has left the building. Have a great HOT day my friends....
Storms are notorious for doing the famous rightward shifts from early first off projections. Sad to say, but first sets of models, you can bet it wont be going there. Another reason we try to explain not to panic early on because it will likely shift right and away. Im not staying up late anymore on Cristobal... yes I know its only Thursday and we have at least till Sunday and storms have done some crazy things in the gulf before and never say never, but unfortunately the trend is your friend and its been a whole lot more shifts east than west. When you wake up and no post on wxinf in almost 12 hrs, lol...the excitement has left...lol... I get excited for storms and always have. My weather peeps know what I mean. Its fascinating to watch or be in a hurricane. I always wish not for a direct hit and destruction, but close enough to give some excitement rather than hot boring days which unfortunately looks like what we will have if anything from Cristobal...Ill be watching periodically, but yeah, the excitement has left the building. Have a great HOT day my friends....
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Stormlover2020
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06 euro slows it down pushes it more west
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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From Jeff
TS Cristobal moves slowly over southern MX
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward toward the US Gulf coast late this weekend.
Discussion:
Cristobal has now been inland for almost 24 hours along the southern Mexican coast with Mexican radar data showing a slow decay of the inner core of the system. The system has drifted toward the SE at around 2-3mph since landfall. Convective banding remains extensive on the eastern side of the circulation, but the overall organization of the system is decaying from interacting with land. It is likely the Cristobal will be downgraded to a tropical depression later this morning.
Track:
Cristobal is meandering to the SE at a slow crawl and a slow eastward motion is expected today with the center remaining over the land areas of Mexico. High pressure building over western TX today and Friday will help carve out a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico while at the same time high pressure will build over the Atlantic Ocean. These two features will begin to induce a south to north steering flow across Cristobal on Friday and the system will begin to lift northward along the western coast of the Yucatan Friday and then into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Global forecast models are showing extraordinary agreement in the forecast track reasoning with very little spread through the 5 days period, however it remains unclear where and with what structure Cristobal will move off the Mexican coast and that could change the longer term forecast track some. Additionally, how fast Cristobal begins to move northward could also alter the forecast track.
The current official NHC forecast brings Cristobal northward starting on Friday and as the system reaching the US Gulf coast late Sunday into Monday. While the most likely track is toward the SC LA coast, interest from SE TX to the FL panhandle should continue to closely monitor the system for any changes.
Intensity:
The well defined inner core of Cristobal is becoming significantly disrupted by the land interaction over Mexico and with another 24 hours over land, it is unclear what exactly will be left of the surface circulation. Due to the land interaction, global models have generally lessened the risk of Cristobal becoming a hurricane as the system moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, it now appears Cristobal will have some significant interaction with the upper level trough forecasted over the Gulf of Mexico allowing shear from the SW and WSW and dry air to wrap into the circulation over the weekend. Factors do not appear overly favorable for development as Cristobal crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The current official NHC forecast brings Cristobal northward as a tropical storm.
It should be noted that the land and upper trough interaction will likely result in an expansive area of tropical storm force winds this weekend over a large portion of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Impacts are expected to be well removed…especially to the east…of the actual surface center.
TS Cristobal moves slowly over southern MX
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward toward the US Gulf coast late this weekend.
Discussion:
Cristobal has now been inland for almost 24 hours along the southern Mexican coast with Mexican radar data showing a slow decay of the inner core of the system. The system has drifted toward the SE at around 2-3mph since landfall. Convective banding remains extensive on the eastern side of the circulation, but the overall organization of the system is decaying from interacting with land. It is likely the Cristobal will be downgraded to a tropical depression later this morning.
Track:
Cristobal is meandering to the SE at a slow crawl and a slow eastward motion is expected today with the center remaining over the land areas of Mexico. High pressure building over western TX today and Friday will help carve out a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico while at the same time high pressure will build over the Atlantic Ocean. These two features will begin to induce a south to north steering flow across Cristobal on Friday and the system will begin to lift northward along the western coast of the Yucatan Friday and then into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Global forecast models are showing extraordinary agreement in the forecast track reasoning with very little spread through the 5 days period, however it remains unclear where and with what structure Cristobal will move off the Mexican coast and that could change the longer term forecast track some. Additionally, how fast Cristobal begins to move northward could also alter the forecast track.
The current official NHC forecast brings Cristobal northward starting on Friday and as the system reaching the US Gulf coast late Sunday into Monday. While the most likely track is toward the SC LA coast, interest from SE TX to the FL panhandle should continue to closely monitor the system for any changes.
Intensity:
The well defined inner core of Cristobal is becoming significantly disrupted by the land interaction over Mexico and with another 24 hours over land, it is unclear what exactly will be left of the surface circulation. Due to the land interaction, global models have generally lessened the risk of Cristobal becoming a hurricane as the system moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, it now appears Cristobal will have some significant interaction with the upper level trough forecasted over the Gulf of Mexico allowing shear from the SW and WSW and dry air to wrap into the circulation over the weekend. Factors do not appear overly favorable for development as Cristobal crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The current official NHC forecast brings Cristobal northward as a tropical storm.
It should be noted that the land and upper trough interaction will likely result in an expansive area of tropical storm force winds this weekend over a large portion of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Impacts are expected to be well removed…especially to the east…of the actual surface center.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020
.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR/IFR fog and/or visibilities can be found early this morning
at several TAF sites. Expect improving conditions as the early morning
hours progress with VFR by the 16Z-18Z time period. Daytime heating
should help to generate some afternoon SHRA/TSRA, and whatever develops
will weaken and dissipate early in the evening.
42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Areas of low clouds and fog have developed across the area early this
morning. This trend is expected to continue until around or shortly
after sunrise. Most locations will see partly cloudy skies today with
afternoon temperatures expected to peak in the lower 90s inland and
in the upper 80s at the coast. Daytime heating could generate some
showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon, but think coverage
will be a lot less than what the area saw yesterday due partly to
lower precipitable water values. Anything that does develop will
weaken and dissipate around or shortly after sunrise, and look for
low temperatures tonight to be in the the low to mid 70s inland and
close to 80 at the coast. Tomorrow should be a little drier and a
little warmer. 42
LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...
The long term discussion will continue to be dominated by the track
of Tropical Storm Cristobal. By Friday evening, Cristobal (or what`s
left of Cristobal after its multi-day land interaction) should have
started its northward movement off of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the Gulf. Where it goes from here will depend on the strength and
location of a ridge of high pressure that is over western Texas on
Friday. This ridge is what is expected to keep Cristobal from
tracking into the western Gulf and potentially steering it into the
northern Gulf Coast late Sunday. This would bring minimal impacts to
SE Texas with some of the outer rainbands reaching the eastern half
of the CWA late Sunday into Monday. However, be aware that there is
still considerable uncertainty in the track during this time, so
please continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days. If the
high pressure remains a bit further west, or if Cristobal hangs
around the Yucatan longer than expected, then Cristobal may slide
left of track closer to SE Texas.
Looking beyond Cristobal, the region is looking to be in store for a
very hot start to the workweek. High temperatures Monday through
Wednesday look to be in the mid to upper 90s across the area with
the potential of record high temperatures on Tuesday. Now if
Cristobal ends up tracking further west, then these temperatures may
be a bit overdone.
Fowler
MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds can be expected
through the end of the work week. Increasing winds (swinging around
from the northeast to north to northwest to west to southwest) along
with building seas and an increased risk of rip currents are anticipated
over the weekend and into the start of next week as Tropical Storm Cristobal
moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico waters and makes an expected
landfall along the Louisiana coast. Based on the current track and
intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center, longer period
swells (4 to 8 foot range), an increase in rip currents, increasing
tides (around 1 to 2 feet above normal) and small craft advisories
can all be expected across the Upper Texas Coastal Waters. However,
Cristobal`s future forecast still remains uncertain, and any deviation
to the right or left of the current projections could result in a very
different forecast for the area. Mariners should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Cristobal. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 93 73 94 / 10 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 91 74 93 74 94 / 20 0 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 87 78 88 / 10 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 041128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020
.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR/IFR fog and/or visibilities can be found early this morning
at several TAF sites. Expect improving conditions as the early morning
hours progress with VFR by the 16Z-18Z time period. Daytime heating
should help to generate some afternoon SHRA/TSRA, and whatever develops
will weaken and dissipate early in the evening.
42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Areas of low clouds and fog have developed across the area early this
morning. This trend is expected to continue until around or shortly
after sunrise. Most locations will see partly cloudy skies today with
afternoon temperatures expected to peak in the lower 90s inland and
in the upper 80s at the coast. Daytime heating could generate some
showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon, but think coverage
will be a lot less than what the area saw yesterday due partly to
lower precipitable water values. Anything that does develop will
weaken and dissipate around or shortly after sunrise, and look for
low temperatures tonight to be in the the low to mid 70s inland and
close to 80 at the coast. Tomorrow should be a little drier and a
little warmer. 42
LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...
The long term discussion will continue to be dominated by the track
of Tropical Storm Cristobal. By Friday evening, Cristobal (or what`s
left of Cristobal after its multi-day land interaction) should have
started its northward movement off of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the Gulf. Where it goes from here will depend on the strength and
location of a ridge of high pressure that is over western Texas on
Friday. This ridge is what is expected to keep Cristobal from
tracking into the western Gulf and potentially steering it into the
northern Gulf Coast late Sunday. This would bring minimal impacts to
SE Texas with some of the outer rainbands reaching the eastern half
of the CWA late Sunday into Monday. However, be aware that there is
still considerable uncertainty in the track during this time, so
please continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days. If the
high pressure remains a bit further west, or if Cristobal hangs
around the Yucatan longer than expected, then Cristobal may slide
left of track closer to SE Texas.
Looking beyond Cristobal, the region is looking to be in store for a
very hot start to the workweek. High temperatures Monday through
Wednesday look to be in the mid to upper 90s across the area with
the potential of record high temperatures on Tuesday. Now if
Cristobal ends up tracking further west, then these temperatures may
be a bit overdone.
Fowler
MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds can be expected
through the end of the work week. Increasing winds (swinging around
from the northeast to north to northwest to west to southwest) along
with building seas and an increased risk of rip currents are anticipated
over the weekend and into the start of next week as Tropical Storm Cristobal
moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico waters and makes an expected
landfall along the Louisiana coast. Based on the current track and
intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center, longer period
swells (4 to 8 foot range), an increase in rip currents, increasing
tides (around 1 to 2 feet above normal) and small craft advisories
can all be expected across the Upper Texas Coastal Waters. However,
Cristobal`s future forecast still remains uncertain, and any deviation
to the right or left of the current projections could result in a very
different forecast for the area. Mariners should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Cristobal. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 93 73 94 / 10 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 91 74 93 74 94 / 20 0 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 87 78 88 / 10 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Have seen them push west almost as frequently. All depends on the individual setups.djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:36 am Yeah its looKing more and more likely Tx will be spared...
Storms are notorious for doing the famous rightward shifts from early first off projections. Sad to say, but first sets of models, you can bet it wont be going there. Another reason we try to explain not to panic early on because it will likely shift right and away. Im not staying up late anymore on Cristobal... yes I know its only Thursday and we have at least till Sunday and storms have done some crazy things in the gulf before and never say never, but unfortunately the trend is your friend and its been a whole lot more shifts east than west. When you wake up and no post on wxinf in almost 12 hrs, lol...the excitement has left...lol... I get excited for storms and always have. My weather peeps know what I mean. Its fascinating to watch or be in a hurricane. I always wish not for a direct hit and destruction, but close enough to give some excitement rather than hot boring days which unfortunately looks like what we will have if anything from Cristobal...Ill be watching periodically, but yeah, the excitement has left the building. Have a great HOT day my friends....
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Kingwood36
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Off topic but anyone know why the page is going up on its own? Do I need to update my browser or anything?
Mine does that randomly in Chrome sometimes. Not really sure why it does in some says and others it doesn’t.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:56 am Off topic but anyone know why the page is going up on its own? Do I need to update my browser or anything?
Yeah I’m pretty much done with Cristobal at this point. I’m looking long term now on when the next storm could form.djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:36 am Yeah its looKing more and more likely Tx will be spared...
Storms are notorious for doing the famous rightward shifts from early first off projections. Sad to say, but first sets of models, you can bet it wont be going there. Another reason we try to explain not to panic early on because it will likely shift right and away. Im not staying up late anymore on Cristobal... yes I know its only Thursday and we have at least till Sunday and storms have done some crazy things in the gulf before and never say never, but unfortunately the trend is your friend and its been a whole lot more shifts east than west. When you wake up and no post on wxinf in almost 12 hrs, lol...the excitement has left...lol... I get excited for storms and always have. My weather peeps know what I mean. Its fascinating to watch or be in a hurricane. I always wish not for a direct hit and destruction, but close enough to give some excitement rather than hot boring days which unfortunately looks like what we will have if anything from Cristobal...Ill be watching periodically, but yeah, the excitement has left the building. Have a great HOT day my friends....
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Stormlover2020
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Icon big shift west, maybe the high is going to be stronger than we think
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Kingwood36
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ICON and NAM both have it more towards texas as of 12z... I wonder if the high will remain in place longer to push it further west?
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Kingwood36
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Beat me to it hahahaStormlover2020 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:42 am Icon big shift west, maybe the high is going to be stronger than we think
Its a mess over land until about Saturday morning. I think we are only going to get about 24-36 hours of advanced notice of where it's really going to go.
Can someone show pics of ICON and NAM and someone said GFS also goes into swla/tx...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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prospects8903
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Just one run but models are starting to trend to a more westward motion
This is the website many of us go to for the models: www.tropicaltidbits.com
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prospects8903
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I don’t know a lot about it but it looks to be due to timing