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Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 6:13 pm
by jasons2k
They just lowered my rain chances for tomorrow from 70% down to 50%.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 6:40 pm
by Cpv17
jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 6:13 pm
They just lowered my rain chances for tomorrow from 70% down to 50%.
Yeah it looks like most of the rain will be east of us into Louisiana. Better rain chances for us in about a week or so from now.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 10:14 pm
by DoctorMu
The Ensemble looks better than GFS and Canadian, but looking more dry than I'd like for the next 2 weeks. This is the 40 day window to load up before the spigot turns off here in the Brazos Valley.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 7:34 am
by CrashTestDummy
CrashTestDummy wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 4:26 pm
Hopefully, the weather cooperates tomorrow, as the Lone Star Flight Museum is planning a fly-over over the greater Houston area. They're trying to get ~20 vintage aircraft in the flight, depending on availability and clearance from the operators:
https://www.lonestarflight.org/public/F ... L-May8.pdf
Looks like the threat of Friday weather has caused a rescheduling of this event. They will now be flying on Sunday, May 10. Take-off time is also rescheduled to be around 1400 CDT US:
https://www.lonestarflight.org/public/F ... EV_SUN.pdf
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 8:23 am
by jasons2k
Rain chances lowered to 40%.
Will probably have to resort to sprinklers.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 9:52 am
by Katdaddy
Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front later this afternoon mainly from I-10 down to the coastal areas. The Houston-Galveston areas are on the edge of a marginal risk area thus a few thunderstorms could approach severe limits. Hoping we get at least some well needed rainfall in NW Galveston County. I will gladly take .25" - .50" over a trace or 0.00"
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 11:16 am
by DoctorMu
Prediction: Bust in College Station
Light to moderate rain in Houston.
Current NOAA forecast has high and dry for a week after that.
Sprinklers on stun.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 12:01 pm
by Cpv17
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 11:16 am
Prediction: Bust in College Station
Light to moderate rain in Houston.
Current NOAA forecast has high and dry for a week after that.
Sprinklers on stun.
We’ll get some better rain chances in here in the 6-10 day period. Looking like some pretty decent rains and a good bout of severe weather headed our way during that period. The ridging in the west is about to transition to a trough in a few days and the big trough in the east is about to giveaway to a ridge. The Euro has a system digging all the way down into the central/southern part of the Baja Peninsula and it just sits there for a few days and then it looks to be replaced possibly by an even bigger system after that but I have low confidence because that’s too far out. The Euro and GFS along with the CPC forecast look pretty good for us.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 1:16 pm
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 12:01 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 11:16 am
Prediction: Bust in College Station
Light to moderate rain in Houston.
Current NOAA forecast has high and dry for a week after that.
Sprinklers on stun.
We’ll get some better rain chances in here in the 6-10 day period. Looking like some pretty decent rains and a good bout of severe weather headed our way during that period. The ridging in the west is about to transition to a trough in a few days and the big trough in the east is about to giveaway to a ridge. The Euro has a system digging all the way down into the central/southern part of the Baja Peninsula and it just sits there for a few days and then it looks to be replaced possibly by an even bigger system after that but I have low confidence because that’s too far out. The Euro and GFS along with the CPC forecast look pretty good for us.
I hope so re: precip.
Huge windshift to the NNE as I type. Maybe a couple of drops headed our way as small cells are just NW of Bryan. It looks iffy.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 1:33 pm
by Cromagnum
Doesn't look too promising for today at the moment
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 1:42 pm
by DoctorMu
It's official: Bust up here.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 3:04 pm
by jasons2k
Yeah, I had a couple of drops and that's it. Seems like every year we get a drought in the springtime. I don't get it.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 3:30 pm
by Cpv17
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 3:04 pm
Yeah, I had a couple of drops and that's it. Seems like every year we get a drought in the springtime. I don't get it.
We’ve had a couple big flooding events the past few years in the month of May including one at my job last year in Rosenberg where we got a foot of rain in just a few hours.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 3:32 pm
by Cpv17
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 1:42 pm
It's official: Bust up here.
I wouldn’t really call it a bust because chances were never really that good to begin with. I told everyone at my job and a bunch of my family that it’s probably not going to rain today.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 4:14 pm
by Katdaddy
See scattered showers develop across SE Harris County, extreme NW Brazoria, and Ft Bend Counties. Seeing some towering cumulus here in W League City off to the NW. Hoping for at least one good shower but we shall see. Regardless of any precipitation, that 10-15F drop will feel awesome with gusty N winds.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 5:18 pm
by Cromagnum
Yep. Broken line of weak garbage blew through without a drop.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 11:40 pm
by jasons2k
You can see, down in the RGV, they had a solid line. Totally skipped over us! How the heck did they have major storms to the east in LA, and to our SW down in the RGV, but nothing here ?!?!?!
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sat May 09, 2020 2:33 pm
by Cpv17
This is looking good!
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sat May 09, 2020 3:35 pm
by don
Yep models are showing a classic cut off low setup,looks like we could get some much needed rain next week. Of course with these setups the potential for flooding and severe weather will have to be watched also.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 11:17 am
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 3:35 pm
Yep models are showing a classic cut off low setup,looks like we
could get some much needed rain next week. Of course with these setups the potential for flooding and severe weather will have to be watched also.
I’m not completely sold on it yet. Been burned too many times especially this far out.