Wx Infinity Forums

Well, it's only 67 degrees here. Based on that, and the placement of the outflow now over the gulf waters, I'd bed on the MCS falling apart north of I-10.

That said, it is holding together still, and who knows what is going-on a few thousand feet up, above the cool boundary layer. It's definitely a wait and see, nowcasting type of situation.

How's it looking for later afternoon / early evening? We are driving back home from the hill country and curious if we are going to be fighting with it by the time we get in Houston around 6-7

Jeff’s Update at 9am this morning

Another large complex of thunderstorms will likely move across the area tonight.

Air mass has been greatly worked over after yesterday afternoon and the early morning round of storms. Upper level low pressure system is currently forming over NW TX and the morning complex of storms is now moving into Louisiana and well out over the NW Gulf waters. Satellite images show clouds are starting to decrease and expect surface heating to commence by late morning. Convective temperatures are in the low to mid 80’s and these temperatures will be achieved by mid afternoon and we could see some development of showers and thunderstorms at that time. Some of the short range guidance is showing some development late this afternoon on what appears to be a return of southerly winds and surge of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Anything that develops this afternoon should be scattered and move off toward the north at a fairly quick rate.

Attention once again turns to the W/NW this evening as yet another strong disturbance rotates around the upper level low and a new complex of thunderstorms will likely form over central TX and move SE overnight. Air mass should have fully recovered by this evening and this next round of storms will pose both a severe and heavy rainfall threat. Complex should arrive into the College Station area around midnight-200am and move off the coast between 600-800am on Tuesday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with this line and SPC has the western portions of SE TX in a slight risk for tonight with the rest of the area in a marginal risk. Storms will likely weaken some as they move toward the coast.

Rainfall Amounts:
An additional 1-3 inches can be expected over the next 24 hours, and even though soils are becoming saturated, this rainfall should be handled. A look at the rivers and watersheds this morning does not reveal any major concern areas. Areas over NE Harris County saw 4-5 inches of rainfall last evening and Cedar Bayou and Jackson Bayou are elevated, but within banks. Heavy rainfall over central Montgomery County yesterday afternoon is translating down the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, but rises are well below flood stage at I-45 and SH 99 and rises at US 59 at this time are expected to remain below flood stage.

Good news is that the upper level low looks to wobble east far enough by mid week to allow a drier and more stable air mass over SE TX reducing rain chances to just scattered and moving us out of this pattern of large thunderstorm complexes each night.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 11:08 am How's it looking for later afternoon / early evening? We are driving back home from the hill country and curious if we are going to be fighting with it by the time we get in Houston around 6-7

Looks like a good chance at another line coming through over night after looking at all the mesoscale models on Levi’s tropicaltidbits site.

A brisk northerly breeze and cool temps persist, with temperatures in the low 70s.

Only 0.63 in of rain yesterday, but good enough for now. A/C off, Sprinklers off. A great Memorial Day.

Seems like the atmosphere is having a really hard time heating up today. I expected things to be popping again by now.

And yeah that MCS fell apart overnight. I had a light shower and that was it. That's OK though - I had plenty of rain yesterday.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 4:22 pm Seems like the atmosphere is having a really hard time heating up today. I expected things to be popping again by now.

Yup, looks like it.

Looks like HGX is heavy on the ARW model which brings a rockin bow echo through early morning and NAM also shows it, albeit weaker. We will see!

Looks like the 2nd half of the week may not be as wet as it seemed a couple of days ago, as models are showing the upper level low moving more to the east as the week progresses. After this week the Caribbean/Gulf will have to be watched for possible tropical mischief as a Gyre moves into the Caribbean/Pacific. Right now models are diverging on rather any potential development would stay in the Pacific or develop in the Atlantic, but its just something to watch for now.

Looks like all quiet this evening. Any overnight mischief still being modeled?

it is a well earned, perfectly gorgeous late May evening in SE TX, that is all....

later, storms may come, temps rise, humidity climb, but grab the moment & enjoy it...

stay safe y'all & keep those loved ones lost in your hearts this Memorial Day

Some models are saying a strong line comes through at 3-4 and some are saying a weak line closer to 8.

If what is in San Antonio makes it to here, I’ll take the 3am prediction, or sooner.

Yeah, it's coming together now. Strongest part is along and south of I-10. Seems to be the theme with these nighttime systems.

Really rocking as of 1 AM

The storms are weakening, but the Houston area will see some rain.

Maybe a tenth or two up in CLL, even with potent lightning and thunder south of us.

Got some strong thunder and lightning here. Third round of storms for me over the last two days so no complaints here. It will be interesting to see if the atmosphere can recover this evening to spark additional scattered thunderstorms.

I managed another .54” overnight. Not bad. It’s been nice to get regular rainfall without having to deal with flooding issues.

The long-term forecast is drying out too. A couple of days ago, the NWS had me forecast at a 60% chance of rain this coming Saturday. Now, it’s down to 30%.

We’ve gotten over 3” here in Wharton County from this event. All good here.

My forecast high today was 82 degrees. Already up to 80 and rising fast with the sun.

I think there may be a bit more fuel today than they thought.