MAY 2020

[snowman65]

moving slowly north....

[djmike]

We are getting hammered in Beaumont. Roads are flooding...Feast or famine right?

[Cromagnum]

Well, Houston didn't get anything. All west a couple days ago and all east today.

[Cpv17]

Channel 13 had a 60% chance of rain today and there’s barely been a drop anywhere.

[djmike]

Flooded in Beaumont

[snowman65]

I'm in Orange....can a pro met chime in and tell me if we are looking at another Imelda overnight tonight? seems like it just won't move out or slow down with rainfall totals...

[jasons2k]

I’m watching that outflow that has been generated from the storms over far East Texas. It is advancing westward, towards Houston metro. Could be a focus for rain later on, or it could be another Lucy.

[don]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight Through Saturday Night)

Convection never really got going this afternoon and feel the
large MCS over the Gulf may have robbed the inflow. Could still
some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with additional
heating later this afternoon but at this time coverage will be
less than what the CAMs suggested earlier today. A quiet night is
in store for the region but low level moisture will continue to
stream into the area beneath a capping inversion. CLouds will
return by late evening and the insulation provided by the clouds
will keep low temperatures on the warm side once again. Speed
convergence will allow for some weak showers to develop very late
tonight or early Friday. Weak upper level ridging amplifies into
the area on Friday with a weak disturbance rolling over the top of
the ridge. Not sure how it will play out so will maintain the
status quo and keep lowish PoPs in the forecast. High temperatures
look similar to today with values in the mid/upper 80`s. A fast
moving disturbance in advance of a potent upper low will bring an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday night.
43

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Next Thursday]...

By Saturday, the upper-level low deepens as it pushes into Eastern
TX, slowing over the Arklatex region by the afternoon. GFS/ECMWF
have come into better agreement regarding the evolution and track of
this feature through the weekend over the past couple of runs, with
the GFS solution no longer pushing the low offshore and instead
following the ECMWF`s east/northeastward track towards the Ozark
Plateau. NAM solution remains slightly less progressive.
Nonetheless, confidence continues to increase in the likelihood of
heavy rain for portions of the area on Saturday and into early
Sunday.

Persistent onshore flow is expected to allow for a surge of low-
level moisture over the next 36-48 hours, with much of the area
expected to exceed 2.0 in of PWAT by Saturday afternoon.
Furthermore, forecast soundings continue to indicate a well-
saturated column by this time with the "skinny CAPE" profile
typically associated with heavy rainfall events apparent. As the
upper level low remains fairly stagnant through Saturday night and
into Sunday, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across most of the area with periods of localized heavy rain
likely. WPC continues to maintain a slight risk in its Day 3
Excessive Rainfall outlook for the entire CWA. While the QPF
forecast remains somewhat fluid, most areas appear progged to
receive widespread rain totals of 1-3" by Monday with isolated
totals of 4+". Still fairly early to pinpoint specific locations
where totals may be highest, as guidance continues to vary in its
depiction of any rainfall "bullseyes". However, we do expect a
general risk of flash flooding with these rains, so it would be
beneficial for individuals to review their flood safety plans in
advance of this event.

As the upper low departs on Monday, we experience a northerly wind
shift as a fairly amplified upper ridge builds in its wake and
surface high pressure builds into the central CONUS. This should be
short-lived, however, as onshore flow redevelops by early Wednesday
resulting in a renewed surge of Gulf moisture into SE Texas. Chances
for diurnally driven streamer showers increase by midweek as this
pattern looks to hold in place. Have continued to maintain 20-30%
PoPs as a result. A general warming trend looks to accompany this
pattern shift with temperatures projected to potentially eclipse
90 degrees by Thursday afternoon.

Cady

[djmike]

Over 8” so far in the last two hours at my home in Beaumont. Over 10” in the city and still counting. City is at a complete stop for now. Stay safe my Golden triangle neighbors.

[jasons2k]

Meanwhile I can’t get any relief. Just keeps teasing me over and over again. The rain is so close I can literally smell it.

[Katdaddy]

The true definition of "when it rains, it pours". I know you needed rainfall djmike but wow.

[djmike]

The true definition of "when it rains, it pours". I know you needed rainfall djmike but wow.

Yup! Just a few pages back I was complaining of 0.47” for 2 months. Hell, I finished with 10.05” last few hours. Believe me Harvey/Imelda PTSD is real!! Today sure tested it. Hope everyone here is safe. More rains this weekend. Hopefully no surprises and we all benefit from it. As for me....Im good. Lol

[Andrew]

Looks like almost all models have shifted southeast with the heaviest rain to at least some degree. Most models now call for 2-4 inches widespread over SE Texas with isolated 7+ inches. It's going to be a tricky situation though with the mid-level shortwave. Earlier models indicated a cutoff low could form but more recent indications are that the upper level flow will be more progressive and allow for a faster exit. With that said, it still looks like late Friday night into Saturday has the greatest potential for heavy rain and flooding. A weak surface low will likely form over central Texas and track southeast. Higher resolution models are showing a pretty strong line moving through the region. Right now it looks like that is where the bulk of precipitation should take place (Saturday morning). How fast that line moves through and any development behind it will be what we need to watch for. GFS is showing 2-2.25 inch PWats for Saturday morning. I still think areas north of Houston have the best shot for flooding rain but it's going to be close. Either way, some beneficial rainfall across the region will be nice to see and something to monitor before we head into hurricane season.

[davidiowx]

Meanwhile I can’t get any relief. Just keeps teasing me over and over again. The rain is so close I can literally smell it.

Welcome to my life! It is torture! Anyways, dang djmike, glad to hear you're safe. It is pretty crazy how we can have these 2-3 month dry periods then a flood in a few hours. It seems to be the new normal over the past few (or should I say several) years. Here I am begging for rain, but I sure don't need 8-10 inches in a few hours! Hope Andrew is right and we get some widespread 2-4 inch rains. That is exactly what the dr. ordered for me!

[Cpv17]

Models couldn’t even accurately predict what happened in Beaumont today. Not even one hour before it started. And the system that hit central Texas and parts of our area a couple days ago, models didn’t start catching on to that till really late. No telling what will happen here and how much rain we could see over the weekend.

[djmike]

Models couldn’t even accurately predict what happened in Beaumont today. Not even one hour before it started. And the system that hit central Texas and parts of our area a couple days ago, models didn’t start catching on to that till really late. No telling what will happen here and how much rain we could see over the weekend.

You are correct. I saw absolutely nothing indicating todays events here in Beaumont. Not even a few hours before. It was all now-casting. All day NWS had a us at 30% with spotty showers.

[DoctorMu]

Meanwhile I can’t get any relief. Just keeps teasing me over and over again. The rain is so close I can literally smell it.

Welcome to my life! It is torture! Anyways, dang djmike, glad to hear you're safe. It is pretty crazy how we can have these 2-3 month dry periods then a flood in a few hours. It seems to be the new normal over the past few (or should I say several) years. Here I am begging for rain, but I sure don't need 8-10 inches in a few hours! Hope Andrew is right and we get some widespread 2-4 inch rains. That is exactly what the dr. ordered for me!

That sounds more like Amarillo!

I have noticed and have been recording over the past 29 years in Texas increase diversity in rainfall amounts and period between rains. The feast or famine modes have worsened if that's possible. Also winter weather has become more variable as well.

[Andrew]

Looking at the extended HRRR, NAM 3k, and Tx-Tech Wrf, all models indicate if we don't see any development ahead or behind of the mainline, the flooding risk may be minimized. A surface boundary looks to remain present somewhere from central Texas into SE Texas and that will be what we really need to monitor. This type of setup (if conditions come together just right) has shown several times before to have a flooding risk, but it really depends on where. We will have to monitor where local boundaries set up because that will be the focus for heavy rain and a breakdown of steering flow.

[jasons2k]

If that surface low forms over Central Texas and moves SE, look for it to take everything out into the Gulf with it, cutting us off.

[Ptarmigan]

The true definition of "when it rains, it pours". I know you needed rainfall djmike but wow.

Yup! Just a few pages back I was complaining of 0.47” for 2 months. Hell, I finished with 10.05” last few hours. Believe me Harvey/Imelda PTSD is real!! Today sure tested it. Hope everyone here is safe. More rains this weekend. Hopefully no surprises and we all benefit from it. As for me....Im good. Lol

No forecast model had 10 inches of rain in the Beaumont area. We have a long way to go in terms of rainfall forecast.