MAY 2020
0.85 in IMBY. We only had 0.9 inches in the past 30 days prior to today, so the rain was very welcome.
Bowing out by Victoria but looks like it might recurve east or northeast?
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CrashTestDummy
- Posts: 187
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
- Location: Pearland, Texas
- Contact:
0.21" in northern Brazoria Co. Better than nuthin'.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
.95” at my house in central Wharton County. We had light to moderate steady rain for a good 5 hours straight.
20% chance today. I ran the sprinklers this morning too. That should do it.
Get your bag out, because it's popcorn shower time. A little sea breeze from Bay City and east. The cap appears broken...so it looks like East Coast summer weather with that 20-30% chance of a popcorn shower in the afternoon with daytime heating.
Big change on the 12z Euro. It cut back on rainfall totals significantly. Still has a couple of inches for most of us through 10 days, but we honestly need way more than that.
.05”
More than yesterday but not nearly enough.
Hopefully, just a blip.
NOAA still buying in, and we are really within the 3-day window...However, lack of consensus cited.
Fingers crossed.
70% chance of rain on Saturday still predicted for CLL.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
323 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow Night]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to end by 00z as
moisture levels wane. Clouds are expected to increase tonight as
low level moisture increases beneath a building cap. Winds don`t
fully decouple and the additional mixing coupled with cloud cover
will yield warm overnight low temperatures. Fcst soundings show some
capping on Thursday but this should be overcome with daytime
heating, a series of weak vort lobes and favorable upper level winds
with a subtle split in the jet over SE TX. Am currently carrying
chance PoPs for Thursday but these may need to be raised. Any
residual showers will end early Thursday night as the disturbances
exit the region and upper level winds become confluent. It will be
another warm night with cloud cover helping to insulate and low
temps by Friday morning will only cool into the lower/middle 70`s.
43
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Next Wednesday]...
If there were one word to describe the expected long-term weather
pattern across SE Texas, it would simply be "wet". The main
feature of concern heading into the weekend will be the approach
of an upper-level low from the west. As this low stagnates over
Central/Eastern TX by late Friday and deepens, persistent onshore
winds will continue drive surface precipitable water (PW) values
upward. This setup will set the stage for periods of rain,
potentially heavy at times, that will continue through Saturday
and Sunday and could stretch into the early part of next week.
While confidence remains fairly high in the prospect of widespread
rainfall across the area, global model solutions continue to
differ in the evolution of the upper low and thus the extent and
magnitude of the weekend`s rainfall. GFS solution indicates a
rise in PW values above 2.0 in across most of the area by
Saturday afternoon as the low takes a more southward track, with
the most significant totals falling across the northern portion of
the CWA. The ECMWF solution, on the other hand, shows a more
eastward track of the low with the higher rainfall totals occuring
well to our north. Will need to continue to monitor the evolution
of this system over the next several days as guidance hopefully
comes to a better consensus.
Scattered showers and storms look to continue through the middle
of next week as onshore flow generally remains in place, keeping
surface moisture content fairly strong. Expect a warming trend
during this time as temperatures once again reach the mid 80s by
Wednesday. Another shortwave trough is expected to move into
central TX by late Thursday, which could lead to our next chance
for more widespread rainfall.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
PW values remain between 1.6 and 1.7 inches. Fcst soundings show
weak capping near 700 mb but this should be overcome with a bit of
heating. Showers are already developing with temperatures in the
lower 80`s. Moisture wanes quickly around 00z and showers and
isolated thunderstorms will end early with VFR conditions for much
of the evening but a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings will redevelop
between 03-06z. A mix of MVFR and potentially IFR ceilings
expected after 06z. Moisture increases again toward 12z and a
series of weak vort lobes will move across SE TX between 12-18z
Thursday. Showers are expected to redevelop early Thursday
morning and linger for much of the day. 43
&&
.MARINE...
A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will persist tonight
with high pressure over the eastern US and lower pressure over the
Texas panhandle. A SCEC has been issued for the offshore waters
between Freeport and the Matagorda Ship Channel for tonight.
Moderate onshore winds will persist through Sunday as low pressure
meanders across East Texas. An offshore flow is expected to develop
Sunday night as the weak surface low drifts east and eventually
southeast. A light and variable flow is expected Monday as the
pressure gradient goes flat. A persistent onshore flow will bring
slightly elevated water levels toward the coast tonight through
Friday but water levels are expected to remain below 3.0 feet. A Red
Flag Warning from the Galveston Beach Patrol has prompted a Rip
Current Statement and this will be allowed to expire at 04z. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 87 72 86 71 / 20 40 20 40 50
Houston (IAH) 73 86 73 86 73 / 30 40 20 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 75 85 75 81 75 / 20 30 10 30 30
I have this sinking feeling this will bust, again.
Time to water the potted plants and my new plantings in the beds.
Time to water the potted plants and my new plantings in the beds.
From the overnight AFD:
Per previous forecasts, the main issue going forward looks to be
the possibility of heavy rainfall this weekend as a closed upper
low moves across the state. However, there`s a new plot twist as
current model runs are now tracking this system fairly quickly E
as a strong cold front sweeps down the Plains in its wake during
the start of the week.
Umm hmm. Yep.
Per previous forecasts, the main issue going forward looks to be
the possibility of heavy rainfall this weekend as a closed upper
low moves across the state. However, there`s a new plot twist as
current model runs are now tracking this system fairly quickly E
as a strong cold front sweeps down the Plains in its wake during
the start of the week.
Umm hmm. Yep.
Just not getting the extremely low batting averages (for lack of a better analogy) on the models and forecasts. I get that weather is highly dynamic and there are many variables we just don't understand yet, but this year has been a barrage of "lucy with the football" it seems. Not suggesting that we need forecasts of flooding, tornadoes, etc. to verify, however going from 50%+ rain chances to squat just doesn't make sense.jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:24 am From the overnight AFD:
Per previous forecasts, the main issue going forward looks to be
the possibility of heavy rainfall this weekend as a closed upper
low moves across the state. However, there`s a new plot twist as
current model runs are now tracking this system fairly quickly E
as a strong cold front sweeps down the Plains in its wake during
the start of the week.
Umm hmm. Yep.
Update from Jeff this morning:
A strong storm system will affect TX Friday-Sunday
Today-Friday:
Overnight short wave that resulted in widespread west TX severe weather is approaching SE TX in a weakened state this morning. A surge of Gulf moisture into the area this morning is resulting in a few scattered showers moving northward. As the remains of the overnight activity approach today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Scattered showers will be possible again on Friday afternoon, but much better chances for storms and heavy rainfall arrive on Saturday.
Will start with the good news for the weekend system and that is models are trending toward a faster moving weather system and no longer stall the upper level low over TX. With that said, the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall in the Saturday-early Sunday period remains.
An upper level short wave trough will move into west TX and close off into an upper level low over central TX on Friday night into Saturday. The upper level winds over SC and SE TX become strongly divergent early Saturday while at the surface strong southerly winds will transport a tropical air mass into the area. PWS (moisture) values will increase toward 2.1 inches by early Saturday morning and the atmosphere will become increasingly saturated. Storm motions will also become slower as the upper level system forms over central TX on Saturday. Models have also introduced a surface front into the mix this morning (a surface boundary was one of the parameters that had been missing to help focus heavy rainfall in previous runs) that slides slowly across the area Saturday into Sunday
Expect a line or complex of slow moving thunderstorms to move across SE TX Saturday starting out west in the morning and spreading across the area throughout the day. There will be a low severe threat with this activity, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall.
Rainfall Amounts:
Models have shifted the axis of heavy rainfall into SE TX overnight from central TX with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches and isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall appears to occur along and north of I-10, but small details in storm motion, cell training, and the position and movement of a frontal boundary will determine where the greatest rains fall. WPC has place all of SE TX in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Current forecasted rainfall amounts are likely to change over the next 24-48 hours.
Sunday Onward:
Showers and thunderstorms will likely still be ongoing Sunday morning, but gradually shifting eastward. With the upper level system now appearing to have more forward speed, a drier air mass should begin to filter into the region on Sunday starting to limit rain chances. Confidence in this part of the forecast is not high.
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Saturday):
A strong storm system will affect TX Friday-Sunday
Today-Friday:
Overnight short wave that resulted in widespread west TX severe weather is approaching SE TX in a weakened state this morning. A surge of Gulf moisture into the area this morning is resulting in a few scattered showers moving northward. As the remains of the overnight activity approach today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Scattered showers will be possible again on Friday afternoon, but much better chances for storms and heavy rainfall arrive on Saturday.
Will start with the good news for the weekend system and that is models are trending toward a faster moving weather system and no longer stall the upper level low over TX. With that said, the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall in the Saturday-early Sunday period remains.
An upper level short wave trough will move into west TX and close off into an upper level low over central TX on Friday night into Saturday. The upper level winds over SC and SE TX become strongly divergent early Saturday while at the surface strong southerly winds will transport a tropical air mass into the area. PWS (moisture) values will increase toward 2.1 inches by early Saturday morning and the atmosphere will become increasingly saturated. Storm motions will also become slower as the upper level system forms over central TX on Saturday. Models have also introduced a surface front into the mix this morning (a surface boundary was one of the parameters that had been missing to help focus heavy rainfall in previous runs) that slides slowly across the area Saturday into Sunday
Expect a line or complex of slow moving thunderstorms to move across SE TX Saturday starting out west in the morning and spreading across the area throughout the day. There will be a low severe threat with this activity, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall.
Rainfall Amounts:
Models have shifted the axis of heavy rainfall into SE TX overnight from central TX with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches and isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall appears to occur along and north of I-10, but small details in storm motion, cell training, and the position and movement of a frontal boundary will determine where the greatest rains fall. WPC has place all of SE TX in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Current forecasted rainfall amounts are likely to change over the next 24-48 hours.
Sunday Onward:
Showers and thunderstorms will likely still be ongoing Sunday morning, but gradually shifting eastward. With the upper level system now appearing to have more forward speed, a drier air mass should begin to filter into the region on Sunday starting to limit rain chances. Confidence in this part of the forecast is not high.
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Saturday):
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I think that the models are worse now than they used to be. It could have something to do with the algorithms they use now.txbear wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:41 amJust not getting the extremely low batting averages (for lack of a better analogy) on the models and forecasts. I get that weather is highly dynamic and there are many variables we just don't understand yet, but this year has been a barrage of "lucy with the football" it seems. Not suggesting that we need forecasts of flooding, tornadoes, etc. to verify, however going from 50%+ rain chances to squat just doesn't make sense.jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:24 am From the overnight AFD:
Per previous forecasts, the main issue going forward looks to be
the possibility of heavy rainfall this weekend as a closed upper
low moves across the state. However, there`s a new plot twist as
current model runs are now tracking this system fairly quickly E
as a strong cold front sweeps down the Plains in its wake during
the start of the week.
Umm hmm. Yep.
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CrashTestDummy
- Posts: 187
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
- Location: Pearland, Texas
- Contact:
It seems to me that, for the most part, the models have proven themselves to be not bad, it's just the location of the 'big' weather. As the Mets say, the center of the weather can move north-south, or east-west just a bit to make one place facing floods, and another still in drought.
THAT, we've seen time, and time again, sometimes with dire consequences <cough>-Harvey-<cough>!
THAT, we've seen time, and time again, sometimes with dire consequences <cough>-Harvey-<cough>!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Regarding the models, it is also important to keep in mind that the reduction of airline flights has reduced aircraft sounding data, an important piece that goes into modeling. Not saying that is the sole reason, but it is likely a contributing factor.txbear wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:41 amJust not getting the extremely low batting averages (for lack of a better analogy) on the models and forecasts. I get that weather is highly dynamic and there are many variables we just don't understand yet, but this year has been a barrage of "lucy with the football" it seems. Not suggesting that we need forecasts of flooding, tornadoes, etc. to verify, however going from 50%+ rain chances to squat just doesn't make sense.jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:24 am From the overnight AFD:
Per previous forecasts, the main issue going forward looks to be
the possibility of heavy rainfall this weekend as a closed upper
low moves across the state. However, there`s a new plot twist as
current model runs are now tracking this system fairly quickly E
as a strong cold front sweeps down the Plains in its wake during
the start of the week.
Umm hmm. Yep.
I believe those are valid points re: reduced aircraft soundings and the feast or famine paradox, especially with the 'big' weather as you reference. Severe weather events being a prime example of that. I think a lot of the frustrations seem to be that forecasts seem to go fairly bullish on precip initially, only to see a decent clawback the day of (give or take) or unverified for the most part. The cap for sure has been especially stout, which I believe has been a struggle to handle.
we are getting a big pour down here in Orange...