April 2020
So what day is Lucy suppose to yank the football away next? Tuesday / Wednesday?
As of this writing, as of right now, NWS shows 70% for Wednesday for the Beaumont area. Watch! Tuesday and Wednesday it will dwindle to a measly 20-30% chance of showers. Same routine. Same broken record. Not even gonna get my hopes up. It would be a nice suprise, but not holding my breath!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I understand. Same here in League City.djmike wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:02 am As of this writing, as of right now, NWS shows 70% for Wednesday for the Beaumont area. Watch! Tuesday and Wednesday it will dwindle to a measly 20-30% chance of showers. Same routine. Same broken record. Not even gonna get my hopes up. It would be a nice suprise, but not holding my breath!
The good news, though, is that your A&M fandom has prepared you for just these types of situations.
Kidding. Maybe. Lol.
All in good fun.....
Haha.
The problem is on Wednesday these storms are supposed to be coming in the morning. That’s typically when storms lose most of their punch and start falling apart.
Night storms can bring surprises.
Hopefully we can get some much needed rain tomorrow night. I like the trend with pretty much all the major models show the cap breaking.
Today just has that "feel" to it. Strong humid winds roaring out of the south.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
An active weather afternoon, evening, and overnight for a large portion of Southern Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks, and Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley.
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
Across SE TX isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible N of Houston this afternoon if convection can bring through the cap.
Early tomorrow morning will be the next threat of severe weather as a line of storms pushes across SE TX from 2AM to 8AM. Inland areas around 2AM, Houston area around 5AM, and off the coast around 8AM.
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
Across SE TX isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible N of Houston this afternoon if convection can bring through the cap.
Early tomorrow morning will be the next threat of severe weather as a line of storms pushes across SE TX from 2AM to 8AM. Inland areas around 2AM, Houston area around 5AM, and off the coast around 8AM.
- Attachments
-
- Screen Shot 2020-04-28 at 7.40.35 AM.png (28.98 KiB) Viewed 4137 times
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...
With Gulf moisture continuing to increase across SE TX this morning
(via strong onshore winds), it does look like we are setting up for
a rather active time today and especially tonight. Currently we are
seeing isolated/widely scattered streamer showers moving across our
northern counties. This activity should mix out by mid/late morning
but there are hints of weak shortwave activity passing through this
afternoon. As progged soundings are indicating a somewhat favorable
environment for today, still not too certain we will have much of a
low-level focus. At any rate, did keep POPs in the 20-30% range for
this afternoon. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 80s at
inland locations...lower 80s along the coast.
The main forecast issue for this period will be tonight as we keep a
close eye on the development/subsequent passage of a squall line via
a fast-moving cold front from NoTX. Progs of very steep lapse rates,
an unstable airmass already in place and strong forcing has prompted
SPC to put much of SE TX in both Slight and Marginal Risk categories
for tonight (Day1). Timing has this line moving across the region at
or around midnight for our northern zones/2-4AM central/4-6AM coast.
The main threat will be strong damaging winds and the possibility of
hail. Clearing skies/cooler temperatures are expected for Weds. 41
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...
With Gulf moisture continuing to increase across SE TX this morning
(via strong onshore winds), it does look like we are setting up for
a rather active time today and especially tonight. Currently we are
seeing isolated/widely scattered streamer showers moving across our
northern counties. This activity should mix out by mid/late morning
but there are hints of weak shortwave activity passing through this
afternoon. As progged soundings are indicating a somewhat favorable
environment for today, still not too certain we will have much of a
low-level focus. At any rate, did keep POPs in the 20-30% range for
this afternoon. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 80s at
inland locations...lower 80s along the coast.
The main forecast issue for this period will be tonight as we keep a
close eye on the development/subsequent passage of a squall line via
a fast-moving cold front from NoTX. Progs of very steep lapse rates,
an unstable airmass already in place and strong forcing has prompted
SPC to put much of SE TX in both Slight and Marginal Risk categories
for tonight (Day1). Timing has this line moving across the region at
or around midnight for our northern zones/2-4AM central/4-6AM coast.
The main threat will be strong damaging winds and the possibility of
hail. Clearing skies/cooler temperatures are expected for Weds. 41
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
TXZ211-226-227-281715-
Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-Austin TX-
1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHARTON...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN AND WEST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...
At 1131 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
East Bernard, or 11 miles north of Wharton, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Western Rosenberg, East Bernard, Wallis, Pleak, Simonton, Beasley,
Kendleton, Orchard, Egypt and Hungerford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
TXZ211-226-227-281715-
Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-Austin TX-
1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHARTON...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN AND WEST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...
At 1131 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
East Bernard, or 11 miles north of Wharton, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Western Rosenberg, East Bernard, Wallis, Pleak, Simonton, Beasley,
Kendleton, Orchard, Egypt and Hungerford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
West central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 1215 PM CDT.
* At 1140 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest
of East Bernard, or 8 miles north of Wharton, moving northeast at
10 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Rosenberg, East Bernard, Wallis, Beasley, Kendleton,
Orchard and Hungerford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 2939 9612 2944 9619 2966 9605 2946 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 229DEG 7KT 2944 9612
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
West central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 1215 PM CDT.
* At 1140 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest
of East Bernard, or 8 miles north of Wharton, moving northeast at
10 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Rosenberg, East Bernard, Wallis, Beasley, Kendleton,
Orchard and Hungerford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 2939 9612 2944 9619 2966 9605 2946 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 229DEG 7KT 2944 9612
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Storms are really starting to develop over the area, looks like the cap broke.
Last edited by don on Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Yep!
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
TXZ199-212-213-281730-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
1152 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 1151 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hockley, or 10 miles north of Katy, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Stagecoach and Cypress.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
TXZ199-212-213-281730-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
1152 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 1151 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hockley, or 10 miles north of Katy, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Stagecoach and Cypress.
ENHANCED risk expanded south into the I-10 corridor....
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR EASTERN OK...EXTREME WESTERN AR...AND NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with widespread damaging winds, some greater
than 75 mph, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ozarks into the
southern Plains. The metropolitan areas of Tulsa and Oklahoma City
will be affected by these severe storms late this afternoon and this
evening, and Dallas-Fort Worth overnight.
...MO/KS/OK this afternoon into east TX/LA/MS overnight...
Rich low-level moisture is spreading northward from TX to OK and
southeast KS, south of a cold front moving into southeastward across
KS, and west of the morning convection from Texarkana southward
along the Sabine River. This moistening is occurring beneath a
plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km. Surface
heating in advance of the front will boost MLCAPE into the 2500-3500
J/kg range from southwest MO into southeast KS and central/eastern
OK. Convective inhibition will weaken along the front by mid
afternoon, with rapid thunderstorm development expected near or just
after 21z from southern KS into MO.
The initial storms along the boundary will pose some threat for
tornadoes, given steep low-level lapse rates with large buoyancy and
vertical vorticity along the boundary. Fairly rapid upscale growth
into a line is expected by this evening, with storms back-building
into central OK. A mix of multicells/bowing segments and embedded
supercells is expected within the frontal squall line. Aside from a
few tornadoes with circulations within the line, the large
CAPE/steep lapse rate environment will favor both large hail
(especially with embedded supercells), and intense downbursts with
widespread damaging winds. Convection will likely surge
south-southeastward tonight across eastern OK/AR into east TX, with
the threat for fairly widespread damaging winds continuing. There
is some uncertainty regarding the eastern extent of the greater
severe threat toward the MS River late tonight, given the residual
influence of the ongoing Sabine River storms and possible
disruptions in destabilization.
...Upper/middle MS Valley region this afternoon/evening...
The primary synoptic cyclone will move eastward along the IA/MN
border toward southern WI today, in advance of a pronounced lead
shortwave trough likewise moving eastward over MN/IA. Low-level
moisture will be more limited compared to areas farther southwest,
but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of
56-60 F will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Mass
response to cyclogenesis will maintain vertical shear/hodographs
favorable for supercells in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold
front, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes, as well
as isolated large hail/damaging winds.
...East TX into southern LA today...
An ongoing, loosely organized cluster of storms near the Sabine
River may persist well into the afternoon, with a tendency for new
development on the south flank of the cluster as the low levels warm
and moisten from the south. Moderate-strong buoyancy will support
strong updrafts with marginal hail potential, though rather modest
vertical shear suggests that multicell clusters will be the main
convective mode. Likewise, occasional downburst winds will also be
possible through the afternoon.
...Central/eastern NE this afternoon/evening...
The primary synoptic front will be located east of this area this
afternoon with a lead shortwave trough. However, a secondary
frontal surge is expected across central/eastern NE this afternoon
in association with the primary amplifying midlevel trough (now over
the northern High Plains, as denoted by the band of rain now moving
into northwest NE). There will sufficient residual low-level
moisture for weak surface-based buoyancy this afternoon in advance
of the secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will
accompany the front, where steep low-level lapse rates will favor
strong/isolated damaging outflow gusts this afternoon/evening.
..Thompson/Lyons.. 04/28/2020
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR EASTERN OK...EXTREME WESTERN AR...AND NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with widespread damaging winds, some greater
than 75 mph, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ozarks into the
southern Plains. The metropolitan areas of Tulsa and Oklahoma City
will be affected by these severe storms late this afternoon and this
evening, and Dallas-Fort Worth overnight.
...MO/KS/OK this afternoon into east TX/LA/MS overnight...
Rich low-level moisture is spreading northward from TX to OK and
southeast KS, south of a cold front moving into southeastward across
KS, and west of the morning convection from Texarkana southward
along the Sabine River. This moistening is occurring beneath a
plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km. Surface
heating in advance of the front will boost MLCAPE into the 2500-3500
J/kg range from southwest MO into southeast KS and central/eastern
OK. Convective inhibition will weaken along the front by mid
afternoon, with rapid thunderstorm development expected near or just
after 21z from southern KS into MO.
The initial storms along the boundary will pose some threat for
tornadoes, given steep low-level lapse rates with large buoyancy and
vertical vorticity along the boundary. Fairly rapid upscale growth
into a line is expected by this evening, with storms back-building
into central OK. A mix of multicells/bowing segments and embedded
supercells is expected within the frontal squall line. Aside from a
few tornadoes with circulations within the line, the large
CAPE/steep lapse rate environment will favor both large hail
(especially with embedded supercells), and intense downbursts with
widespread damaging winds. Convection will likely surge
south-southeastward tonight across eastern OK/AR into east TX, with
the threat for fairly widespread damaging winds continuing. There
is some uncertainty regarding the eastern extent of the greater
severe threat toward the MS River late tonight, given the residual
influence of the ongoing Sabine River storms and possible
disruptions in destabilization.
...Upper/middle MS Valley region this afternoon/evening...
The primary synoptic cyclone will move eastward along the IA/MN
border toward southern WI today, in advance of a pronounced lead
shortwave trough likewise moving eastward over MN/IA. Low-level
moisture will be more limited compared to areas farther southwest,
but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of
56-60 F will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Mass
response to cyclogenesis will maintain vertical shear/hodographs
favorable for supercells in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold
front, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes, as well
as isolated large hail/damaging winds.
...East TX into southern LA today...
An ongoing, loosely organized cluster of storms near the Sabine
River may persist well into the afternoon, with a tendency for new
development on the south flank of the cluster as the low levels warm
and moisten from the south. Moderate-strong buoyancy will support
strong updrafts with marginal hail potential, though rather modest
vertical shear suggests that multicell clusters will be the main
convective mode. Likewise, occasional downburst winds will also be
possible through the afternoon.
...Central/eastern NE this afternoon/evening...
The primary synoptic front will be located east of this area this
afternoon with a lead shortwave trough. However, a secondary
frontal surge is expected across central/eastern NE this afternoon
in association with the primary amplifying midlevel trough (now over
the northern High Plains, as denoted by the band of rain now moving
into northwest NE). There will sufficient residual low-level
moisture for weak surface-based buoyancy this afternoon in advance
of the secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will
accompany the front, where steep low-level lapse rates will favor
strong/isolated damaging outflow gusts this afternoon/evening.
..Thompson/Lyons.. 04/28/2020
- Attachments
-
Please, Please, Please rain at my house!! Storms are N and S of me, but again I am in between!
Radar looks feisty on the SW side of town.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
TXZ226-227-237-281800-
Inland Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-
1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHARTON...
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND AND NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 100
PM CDT...
At 1224 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kendleton, or 8 miles northeast of Wharton, moving east at 20 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. This storm produced a funnel cloud near Hungerford
earlier today.
Locations impacted include...
Rosenberg, Needville, Pleak, Fairchilds, Beasley, Kendleton,
Boling-Iago, Cumings and Damon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
TXZ226-227-237-281800-
Inland Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-
1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHARTON...
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND AND NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 100
PM CDT...
At 1224 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kendleton, or 8 miles northeast of Wharton, moving east at 20 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. This storm produced a funnel cloud near Hungerford
earlier today.
Locations impacted include...
Rosenberg, Needville, Pleak, Fairchilds, Beasley, Kendleton,
Boling-Iago, Cumings and Damon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.