April 2020
Dont know if I'm reading this wrong but models look to be consistent on some pretty chilly weather coming down especially for April mid to late next week.
Tomorrow could get pretty nasty around here and for sure late Saturday into Sunday morning. Heck, even later today far western areas of the viewing area could see some action.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
south Texas on Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Very large hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern will have two prominent features on Thursday, a large
upper low over southern CA and the southern Great Basin and a
deepening/mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Northeast States. The
southern CA upper low will be displaced southwest of the stronger
flow aloft, with little progression of this system anticipated
throughout the day. Maturing of the cyclone over the Northeast will
be supported by a pair of shortwave troughs, one moving through the
region during the first half of the period and the other moving
through early Friday morning. Very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 110+
kt at 500mb) will accompany these shortwaves, spreading
eastward/northeastward over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
southern New England by Thursday afternoon.
Despite these more prominent features, the primary severe weather
threat will likely be tied to a more subtle shortwave trough
ejecting out of northern Mexico and across TX. Ample low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of this shortwave, leading to
strong/severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
...Central/South TX...
A cold front will likely extend from northern LA southwestward into
the Edwards Plateau early Thursday morning. This front is expected
to slowly push southward throughout the day as temperatures and
low-level moisture gradually increase ahead of it. By the early
afternoon, temperatures will like be in the upper 80s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s/low 70s south of the front. Ascent along the front
will be augmented by the subtle shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis, leading to thunderstorm initiation by the early afternoon.
The warm and moist low-levels coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (generally steepest between 800 to 600 mb) will support strong
buoyancy and the potential for very strong updrafts. Winds up
through about 700 mb will be modest but strong westerly flow will
exist about 700 mb, supporting ample deep-layer shear for updraft
organization. Large to very large hail appears to be the main severe
threat, although the potential exists for upscale growth into an
organized convective line. As such, threat for strong wind gusts
exists from both water-loaded downdrafts within more cellular
activity and more organized updrafts/downdrafts within a convective
line. The tornado threat is non-zero, but weak low-level flow
suggest very low probability.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
south Texas on Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Very large hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern will have two prominent features on Thursday, a large
upper low over southern CA and the southern Great Basin and a
deepening/mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Northeast States. The
southern CA upper low will be displaced southwest of the stronger
flow aloft, with little progression of this system anticipated
throughout the day. Maturing of the cyclone over the Northeast will
be supported by a pair of shortwave troughs, one moving through the
region during the first half of the period and the other moving
through early Friday morning. Very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 110+
kt at 500mb) will accompany these shortwaves, spreading
eastward/northeastward over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
southern New England by Thursday afternoon.
Despite these more prominent features, the primary severe weather
threat will likely be tied to a more subtle shortwave trough
ejecting out of northern Mexico and across TX. Ample low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of this shortwave, leading to
strong/severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
...Central/South TX...
A cold front will likely extend from northern LA southwestward into
the Edwards Plateau early Thursday morning. This front is expected
to slowly push southward throughout the day as temperatures and
low-level moisture gradually increase ahead of it. By the early
afternoon, temperatures will like be in the upper 80s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s/low 70s south of the front. Ascent along the front
will be augmented by the subtle shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis, leading to thunderstorm initiation by the early afternoon.
The warm and moist low-levels coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (generally steepest between 800 to 600 mb) will support strong
buoyancy and the potential for very strong updrafts. Winds up
through about 700 mb will be modest but strong westerly flow will
exist about 700 mb, supporting ample deep-layer shear for updraft
organization. Large to very large hail appears to be the main severe
threat, although the potential exists for upscale growth into an
organized convective line. As such, threat for strong wind gusts
exists from both water-loaded downdrafts within more cellular
activity and more organized updrafts/downdrafts within a convective
line. The tornado threat is non-zero, but weak low-level flow
suggest very low probability.
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It’s 88 here. Had a high of 90. Cap is holding firm.
Mid 90s in Dallas today.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
My fishing tank is up several feet in Colorado County. I’ll take another 3-4 inches
Team #NeverSummer
Just by looking at the models tonight, it looks the rain tomorrow will pretty much stop at the Colorado/Wharton County line and points east of there won’t get much of anything and points north of there could get 2-4”. So according to that I won’t get much here tomorrow.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2020
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TX...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC TO NEAR
NEW YORK CITY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected from the Hill Country into south and southeast Texas
this afternoon into early tonight. Damaging wind gusts may also
occur around midday along the Interstate 95 corridor from near
Washington D.C. to near New York City.
...Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor through early afternoon...
In the wake of weakening morning convection, there will be a window
of opportunity for surface-based destabilization from northeast VA
across MD/DE into NJ. Forcing for ascent along a cold front south
of a deepening cyclone in NY, and immediately in advance of a strong
midlevel shortwave trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak over
IN/OH, will support a band of thunderstorms along the front in the
15-19z time frame. Steepening low-level lapse rates, MLCAPE near
500 J/kg, strong deep-layer vertical shear, and 50 kt flow below 700
mb will all support a threat for damaging winds, marginally severe
hail, and perhaps a tornado with the late morning to early afternoon
convection.
...Hill Country to south/southeast TX this afternoon into early
tonight...
A surface cold front will slow and stall by afternoon from central
into northeast TX. This front will coincide with the southern
stream aloft, which will include an ejecting speed max from northern
Mexico into south central TX today. Surface heating and
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s along the boundary will
begin to erode convective inhibition by mid afternoon. Storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the boundary near
I-35, by which time MLCAPE will have increased into the 2500-4000
J/kg range.
Though low-level flow/shear will remain weak, deep-layer shear will
be favorable for supercells, and storm interactions will likely lead
to some upscale growth by this evening. The more discrete
supercells will pose a threat for isolated very large hail, while
damaging winds can be expected with the storm mergers and upscale
growth into clusters. Convective clusters will likely reach
southeast TX and the middle-upper TX coastal plain by this evening.
The threat for isolated severe storms could linger into the
overnight hours across deep South TX, as storms cross the Rio Grande
from northeast Mexico.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2020
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TX...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC TO NEAR
NEW YORK CITY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected from the Hill Country into south and southeast Texas
this afternoon into early tonight. Damaging wind gusts may also
occur around midday along the Interstate 95 corridor from near
Washington D.C. to near New York City.
...Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor through early afternoon...
In the wake of weakening morning convection, there will be a window
of opportunity for surface-based destabilization from northeast VA
across MD/DE into NJ. Forcing for ascent along a cold front south
of a deepening cyclone in NY, and immediately in advance of a strong
midlevel shortwave trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak over
IN/OH, will support a band of thunderstorms along the front in the
15-19z time frame. Steepening low-level lapse rates, MLCAPE near
500 J/kg, strong deep-layer vertical shear, and 50 kt flow below 700
mb will all support a threat for damaging winds, marginally severe
hail, and perhaps a tornado with the late morning to early afternoon
convection.
...Hill Country to south/southeast TX this afternoon into early
tonight...
A surface cold front will slow and stall by afternoon from central
into northeast TX. This front will coincide with the southern
stream aloft, which will include an ejecting speed max from northern
Mexico into south central TX today. Surface heating and
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s along the boundary will
begin to erode convective inhibition by mid afternoon. Storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the boundary near
I-35, by which time MLCAPE will have increased into the 2500-4000
J/kg range.
Though low-level flow/shear will remain weak, deep-layer shear will
be favorable for supercells, and storm interactions will likely lead
to some upscale growth by this evening. The more discrete
supercells will pose a threat for isolated very large hail, while
damaging winds can be expected with the storm mergers and upscale
growth into clusters. Convective clusters will likely reach
southeast TX and the middle-upper TX coastal plain by this evening.
The threat for isolated severe storms could linger into the
overnight hours across deep South TX, as storms cross the Rio Grande
from northeast Mexico.
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So looks like I'll be trying to knock out the backyard mowing early afternoon just in case.
I’m not impressed by the coverage of today’s event on the mesoscale models. They all show an isolated event and mostly just show areas north of 59 and north of 10 getting anything. South and east of there it looks pretty weak. Maybe light to moderate rain at best. For some reason the storms just want to die out according to the models I’m looking at. Colorado County, Austin, Waller, Harris (western/northern parts of the county), and Liberty Counties and points north of there look like areas that will get some rain/storms today.
Looks like outflow boundaries from last night's midwest storms are sinking through Louisiana this morning. Looked like some gravity waves out ahead of that as well, heading in this general direction. Wondering what impact, if any, that is going to have this afternoon.
All my weather apps just show 20-30% chance of light rain. I went ahead and mowed so that assured it will be sunny all day.
There will be storms today you can already see them on radar firing up in the hill county. Those supercells will slowly back build to the south and west as the afternoon progresses and form into a squall line/mesoscale convective system. I would say places along and north of the I-59 corridor have the best chances of seeing severe weather today.
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It’s cloudy out there. That will limit the severity of today’s storms I’m sure.
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued STX, S Central TX, and most of SE TX except the coastal counties until 10:00PM. Remain weather aware this evening and tonight.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 97
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central/Southeast Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to intensify within an increasingly unstable environment,
with such initial development near the I-35 corridor through
mid/late afternoon. Supercells and well-organized clusters can be
expected with large hail and damaging winds possible as storms
spread east-southeastward toward east/southeast Texas and the
coastal plain through evening.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 97
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central/Southeast Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to intensify within an increasingly unstable environment,
with such initial development near the I-35 corridor through
mid/late afternoon. Supercells and well-organized clusters can be
expected with large hail and damaging winds possible as storms
spread east-southeastward toward east/southeast Texas and the
coastal plain through evening.
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Is this one of those situations where there could be pop-ups ahead of the line or is the line the action as it traverses the state, possibly back building? Thanks.
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