July Weather Discussion

[wxdata]

Way, way away...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
217 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 214 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD
ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF CROCKET...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER RURAL PORTIONS OF THE WARNED
COUNTY..


update at 2:28pm- Tornado Warning CANCELED.

[wxdata]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR GALVESTON...CHAMBERS AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HARRIS COUNTY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.ELEVATED TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE A COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TXZ214-237-238-081200-
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.A.0003.100708T0000Z-100709T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.W.0003.100708T0000Z-100709T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-
200 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT LEVELS
TO INCREASE ANOTHER 1/2 FOOT TONIGHT AS MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE. AFTER ADDING THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF AROUND 2 FEET
TO THIS...IT WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL TIDE BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 FEET ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES WHICH WILL CREATE COASTAL FLOOD PROBLEMS AT THE SUSCEPTIBLE SPOTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA...WESTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...BLUE WATER HIGHWAY
AND SURFSIDE. WAVE RUN UP WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO EVEN HIGHER LEVELS. THE LOWEST
LYING BAYSIDE LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE WATER LEVELS PUSH ABOVE BULKHEADS
AND INTO YARDS AND ROADS. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR AROUND
HIGH TIDE AT EACH LOCATION. IN ADDITION TO HIGH WATER LEVELS...HIGH SURF WILL
CREATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS SO SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-080200-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
305 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS IS IN THE PROCESS OF FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE FEATURES DO NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND TO PRODUCE TORNADOS IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SHOULD YOU SEE ANY FUNNELS BEGIN TO DESCEND CLOSE TO THE
GROUND...TAKE SHELTER BECAUSE THEY CAN PRODUCE DAMAGE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NECESSARY.

[sau27]

Getting very loud thunder here in Greenway plaza.

[wxdata]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
428 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090000-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-100709T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
428 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN
IF THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR TROPICAL STORM...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS CAN EXPECT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRAIN OR MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS LEADING TO HIGH RAIN RATES
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE....WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

Drove down HWY 6 earlier. Addicks Reservoir appeared to have 4-6 ft of water in it with last week’s heavy rainfall.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
514 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

TXZ199-213-237-072245-
BRAZORIA-HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-
514 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRING VALLEY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PORTER...NEW CANEY...
MEMORIAL...ADDICKS...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SPRING VALLEY...
SPRING...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...MANVEL...KINGWOOD...JERSEY VILLAGE...
JACINTO CITY...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HUMBLE...HOUSTON...HILSHIRE
VILLAGE...GALENA PARK...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...BELLAIRE AND ALDINE.

[wxdata]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

TXC201-072345-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0055.100707T2239Z-100707T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
539 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF HOUSTON.

FLOODED ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE BELLAIRE AREA AND IN THE
HEIGHTS AS OF 530 PM CDT.

[wxdata]

From KHOU:

feeder 45 north @ Tidwell is flooded halfway up wheel wells

[cisa]

Boy, that was a nasty ride home and I don't even have that long a commute.

[Mr. T]

Stat fun happy time

2.19" of rain has been reported at IAH so far today (through 7 pm).

Our total for July 2010 now stands at 8.51". With only 7 days of the month so far, July 2010 is now already the 8th wettest July on record. Only 1.54" would be needed to move up to the #4 spot. 5.58" of rain would have to fall to move into the #1 spot. With so many days of this month left, it is certainly possible.

With the brunt of the rain event still to go, I think we will likely move up to #4 (10.07" in 1961)

[Ptarmigan]

Stat fun happy time

2.19" of rain has been reported at IAH so far today (through 7 pm).

Our total for July 2010 now stands at 8.51". With only 7 days of the month so far, July 2010 is now already the 8th wettest July on record. Only 1.54" would be needed to move up to the #4 spot. 5.58" of rain would have to fall to move into the #1 spot. With so many days of this month left, it is certainly possible.

With the brunt of the rain event still to go, I think we will likely move up to #4 (10.07" in 1961)

That's a lot of rain for IAH. We are already one of the wettest Julys ever. I notice some of the wettest July's do not bode well.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_july

14.80 1900
14.10 1942
13.53 1943
10.07 1961
10.04 1955
9.94 2007
9.39 1939
8.41 1916
8.17 1959
8.10 1979

1900, 1942, 1959, 1961, and 2007 had tropical cyclones make landfall on the Upper Texas Coast. 3 of the 5 top 10 wet July's had major hurricanes make landfall in August or September, 1900, 1942, and 1961. 1916 had a major hurricane make landfall on South Texas. 1900 was the Great Galveston Hurricane, 1942 was a major hurricane that made landfall around Palacios. 1961 was Carla. Also prior to the major hurricane in 1942, another hurricane made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast a week before the major one made landfall.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist.htm

[Mr. T]

IAH's total for today is now 2.26". Just 0.05" is needed in the next three hours to reach the record daily rainfall for today... Activity is really dying down now, so we might not be able to do that before midnight.

HGX expects more activity to fire overnight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
838 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST VERY LONG AS ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING LOOKS GOOD WITH AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN QUITE POSSIBLE. SOME SOUTHEAST TEXAS SPOTS HAVE
RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN BOTH TODAY AND DURING THE PAST WEEK...AND IT
IS NOT GOING TO TAKE A WHOLE LOT MORE RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.
IF TRAINING STORMS SET UP ACROSS AREA CREEKS...RIVERS AND BAYOUS...WE
COULD EASILY HAVE SOME LOCATIONS REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS COULD INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES) TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOODING IS THE NEXT ISSUE IN LINE...AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 5 FEET BEING PREDICTED BY SOME OF THE MODELS COULD
END UP CREATING COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome pattern developing. Wash...rinse...repeat weekly. The 1961 analog is also of interest.

[Ptarmigan]

Worrisome pattern developing. Wash...rinse...repeat weekly. The 1961 analog is also of interest.

1961 was Neutral. No El Nino in the winter of 1960-61.

Code: Select all

1960  -1   0   0  -1   0   0  -1  -2  -2  -3  -4  -3
1961  -2  -1   0   1   0  -1  -4  -6  -7  -6  -6  -3

We did hit La Nina in the Fall and Winter of 1961.

1900 was an El Nino year that was diminishing into Neutral.

Code: Select all

1900  14  13  11  11   9   8   8   7   5   4   3   2

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

[ticka1]

I think we have another doom and gloom forecast projected when all we will see is rain - sometimes hard and will drop alot of rain and localize flooding but no major weather event.

Everyone stay alert and turn around - don't drive thru the water!

[srainhoutx]

Let's hope we are not seeing a training event beginning to set up. Worrisome to see such a long fetch of moisture extending well out into the Gulf.

[kayci]

Water

n.
1.A clear, colorless, odorless, and tasteless liquid, H2O, essential for most plant and animal life and the most widely used of all solvents. Freezing point 0°C (32°F); boiling point 100°C (212°F); specific gravity (4°C) 1.0000; weight per gallon (15°C) 8.338 pounds (3.782 kilograms).

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/08/10 1232Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1215Z JANKOT
AMSR-E 0839Z
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN OVER S TEXAS FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FIRST FEW VIS IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWEST INTO SE/S TEXAS AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS BEST ENHANCEMENT INVOF VICTORIA COUNTY. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE WITH THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWATS AROUND 2.6". MANUAL
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST RAIN RATES ARE 1.25"/30 MIN IN THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION/CELL MERGERS. A 0839Z MICROWAVE AMSR-E PASS INDICATED AN AREAL
AVERAGE INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATE OF .601 ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER MOST
CONVECTION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE WITH
ADDITIONAL DAY TIME HEATING AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER SHOULD
IMPACT S TEXAS/MEXICO WITH RATES OF 1-2"/HR.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC OUTLINING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA SHOULD
BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEBISTE LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1230Z-1530Z....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO S/SE TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH RAIN
RATES OF 1-2"/HR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING S TEXAS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH
SIMILAR RAIN RATES. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

[ticka1]

Is Houston area included in that? Or will it just be the BRO area and South Texas?