July Weather Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
ticka1
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Doesn't look like we are going to get all that rain folks were predicting....98L - has gone ashore in Mexico - too far away from us to affect our weather.

TS Bonnie is trending towards LA - so that leaves us on the dry side of the storm.

What are our rain chances for the weekend? I am seeing variations from different sites.
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srainhoutx
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HGX:
CLIMATE...
JULY HAS BEEN VERY WET FOR HOUSTON AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH
YESTERDAY (THE 22ND)...HOU`S JULY RAINFALL TOTAL HAS REACHED 12.17 INCHES
WHICH RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. ANOTHER 0.79 INCHES BEFORE
THE MONTH COMES TO AN END WILL TIE JULY 2010 FOR THE SECOND WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. ONLY 1979 HAD MORE RAIN IN JULY...17.26 INCHES (REMEMBER
CLAUDETTE?). FOR IAH...THE MONTHLY TOTAL TO DATE IS 12.08 INCHES WHICH
RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. IAH NEEDS ANOTHER 2.72 INCHES
OF RAIN TO TIE FOR THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD...EQUALLING THE 1900 TOTAL
OF 14.80 INCHES. 42
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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biggerbyte
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Hi, Ticka

That ULL has dried us out in much the same that a tropical storm or hurricane going ashore east of us would. The airflow is dry. This dry spot was expected. As Bonnie's leftovers, and the ULL is no longer east of the Houston area, moisture content will once again increase. There is even a threat of heavy rain. Sometimes with these little systems like Bonnie, they can cause more problems, post landfall, than pre. We will see about that. At any rate, we have the ULL to contend with. It looks to be wet week, at least for the first half.


Just to remind everyone. It is that ULL that helped keep Bonnie to our east. If that had not been a factor, stubborn one could have had free will to grow as she headed west. Thank God we get these big surprises sometimes. I've never seen such a huge ULL.
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srainhoutx
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN. GPSMET DATA SHOWS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO MOISTEN UP ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN WITH PWS UP TO 1.7 INCHES
OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND 2 INCHES JUST OFF THE COAST. THE TUTT
LOW NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST OF THE AREA...EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ALLOWING DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GET DRAWN UP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITIONAL DAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BUT
STRONG HEATING STILL OCCURS. PWS OF 2+ INCHES WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF SE TX BY SUNDAY AFTN. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW K-INDICES
AROUND 40 WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
SCATTERED TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN 30-40
POPS. GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE SUNDAY AFTN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DOWNBURST THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. WILL MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE UPDATED HWO.

A CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE STATE
AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. PWS WILL REMAIN
1.9-2.3 INCHES. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY. A FEW WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES COULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THESE FEATURES COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS (50 PCT) GOING EACH DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES MORE SATURATED THIS PERIOD. THREAT FOR
DOWNBURSTS WILL LESSEN BUT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
PERIOD. HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE 80S IF CLOUDS/RAIN ARE EXTENSIVE
ENOUGH. WHATEVER RAIN THAT FALLS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ADD TO OUR
ALREADY TOP 5 WETTEST JULY.

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. ONCE THAT
HAPPENS...RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO JUST 20 PCT BY
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD...LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 90S OR
POSSIBLY EVEN 100 IN SOME AREAS BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT AT ALL
UNUSUAL FOR THE END OF JULY.

35
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Paul
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In a nut shell, as soon as that ULL moves more to the west and we get in its easterly flow...we get rain....
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wxdata
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WUUS54 KHGX 242204
SVRHGX
TXC157-481-242245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0052.100724T2204Z-100724T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
504 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIRST
COLONY...AND MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PLEAK AND NEEDVILLE.
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wxdata
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WUUS54 KHGX 242153
SVRHGX
TXC015-157-201-473-242245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0051.100724T2153Z-100724T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MISSION BEND...AND MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO KATY AND BROOKSHIRE.
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wxdata
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

TXC015-157-201-473-242245-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-100724T2245Z/
WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-AUSTIN TX-FORT BEND TX-
515 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR FORT BEND...AUSTIN...HARRIS AND WALLER COUNTIES...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KATY...AND MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO WADSWORTH...ADDICKS...PATTISON...MISSION BEND...
FULSHEAR AND BROOKSHIRE
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wxdata
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From HGX NWS
62 DBZ to 34000 feet on storm near Katy. well over 80 digital vil. Vis satellite has great shot of overshooting top. Transtar has some good pics of storm as well.
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wxdata
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Pic from Transtar
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wxdata
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Radar suggests 2" hail just east of Katy.
sjseml
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I'm in Katy. 2" hail.
cisa
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very cool picture. I also have a question. All the moisture in BOC looks to wrap around ULL. I assume that's what increases our rain chance. What are the odds of development didn't see anything one the NOAA huricane site, but it looked curious to me.
No rain, no rainbows.
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wxdata
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

TXC015-157-201-473-242245-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-100724T2245Z/
WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-AUSTIN TX-FORT BEND TX-
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR FORT BEND...AUSTIN...HARRIS AND WALLER COUNTIES...

AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KATY...AND MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO WADSWORTH...ADDICKS...PATTISON...MISSION BEND...
FULSHEAR AND BROOKSHIRE
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wxdata
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

TXC157-481-242245-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-100724T2245Z/
FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR WHARTON AND FORT BEND COUNTIES...

AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PLEAK...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF ROSENBERG...AND MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...THOMPSONS...RICHMOND...
ORCHARD...NEEDVILLE AND BEASLEY
HannahMontana
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It looks like there may be a tornado with the Katy cell
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wxdata
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cisa wrote:very cool picture. I also have a question. All the moisture in BOC looks to wrap around ULL. I assume that's what increases our rain chance. What are the odds of development didn't see anything one the NOAA huricane site, but it looked curious to me.

BOC: slim for development. Any low/middle rotation will move west. NHC not even mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook.
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wxdata
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

TXC157-201-473-250045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0062.100724T2239Z-100725T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
539 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR KATY.

THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RAIN RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
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Mrs.Frosty
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What are the chances of the storms that are coming in from LA and heading west , holding together and making it into our area ?
HannahMontana
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NWS should put up a tornado warning for the Katy cell. Radar velocity indicates a possible tornado south of I-10
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