Wx Infinity Forums

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:45 am

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:34 am Massive flip by 12z GFS, cold air thrown off to the east.

As expected.....

12z doesn't really look right. I don't believe it.

The GFS has been absolutely garbage.

yall are really believing models over a week out come on now yall know better than this

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:04 am The GFS has been absolutely garbage.

GFS has been A LOT better than the Euro this Winter season, especially recently.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:49 am

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:45 am

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:34 am Massive flip by 12z GFS, cold air thrown off to the east.

As expected.....

12z doesn't really look right. I don't believe it.

Haha, yep. The surface map on the 12z is opposite of what one would expect.

Let’s see... large SE ridge, healthy negative PNA... when you get into instances with air like this, it is going to follow the path of least resistance FIRST. Now I do believe it will eventually bleed into the SE at some point the following week, but it will come here first and it certainly won’t funnel right into the ridge. LOL

The 12z was the worst and best of the GFS.

Absolutely, head scratching on the surface map for late next week and then the cold/winter storm for the week of the 20th actually jives. The 500mb is what you would want to see to get prolonged cold with bouts of wintry weather.

That setup was what I envisioned a couple weeks ago when I was looking at the Sea of Okhotsk. It’s only arriving a week later than I figured.

stormlover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:06 am yall are really believing models over a week out come on now yall know better than this

Um i didn't see anyone say they believed the models... most of us are just following the model trends and discussing the potential pattern I dont think anyone is believing each model run this far out.

I hope everyone stays weather aware on Friday as we could see a severe weather outbreak. Its not often that you see an enhanced risk around here 3 days in advance, the SPC even has places along and north of the I-10 corridor under an hatched risk area for the possibility of significant severe weather. As the dynamics of Fridays storm look very substantial. if the trend continues i wouldn't be surprised if we got upgraded to a moderate risk.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Given the timing of the expected bad weather, my daughter needs to get back to C.S. from Orange on Friday or Saturday...would it be best for her to wait until Saturday morning? Thanks.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:12 pm Given the timing of the expected bad weather, my daughter needs to get back to C.S. from Orange on Friday or Saturday...would it be best for her to wait until Saturday morning? Thanks.

Timing was supposed to be overnight Friday from what I had heard.

If we’re ever going to get any significant cold this winter, this -pna needs to relax.

This is one intense line of storms on the NAM for Friday night:

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:40 pm This is one intense line of storms on the NAM for Friday night:

Wow... vertical with discrete cells out in front.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:17 pm If we’re ever going to get any significant cold this winter, this -pna needs to relax.

It’s forecasted to do just that... it actually enters our sweet spot (2 SDs or less in the mid to long term). We’d like for it to stay negative to neutral in the long term.

The GFS has taken away the frozen stuff. Poof!

harp wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:49 pm The GFS has taken away the frozen stuff. Poof!

Actually, it has pretty much taken away the cold front altogether. Apparently the front won’t have enough umph to make it this far south as it’s bumping into the SE ridge I’m guessing. Like I said, we need this -PNA to relax to allow the cold air to bleed south towards us. If you look at the CPC, they have us under above normal temps for the next two weeks.

GFS just pushed it back two to three days which makes more sense given our upper air pattern once we hit late Sunday/Monday. It’s much more of a traditional look for delivering the cold.

With that said, we can get cold with less than ideal patterns, especially when dealing with dense Arctic air that Plummets Montana and the northern plains into the -30s. As Jeff mentioned this morning it’s like water on a table surface. It bleeds south because it’s stronger than what is in its way

A warm and breezy day with some scattered showers will be followed by a severe weather event tomorrow evening through early Saturday morning. We are 1 day out and the enhanced risk area has been expanded to include areas S and SW of Houston. The enhanced risk area also includes all of ETX, portions of NTX including Dallas, and portions of Central TX including Austin. For SE TX any thunderstorms that develop late tomorrow afternoon and evening will need to be watched carefully as they could become supercells however they main threat will be overnight.

From this mornings Houston-Galveston NWS Area Forecast Discussion:

This will be a nocturnal severe weather threat, which will enhance the danger of the event. Not only does this mean that any severe weather that occurs will be harder to see, but also people are more likely to miss severe weather warnings. This is usually because they are either asleep or because they are out and about and may not have their usual means of receiving weather information. If you have plans or events scheduled for Friday night, now is the time to be considering changing those plans. Please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings (e.g. a NOAA Weather Radio, cell phone alerts, local TV/radio media) and know your plan of action in case a warning is issued for your area.

Thursday morning severe weather briefing from Jeff:

Severe weather threat increasing for Friday night

Severe threats include:

Damaging winds to 70mph
Isolated tornadoes
Isolated large hail

SPC has included much of the area north of I-10 in a 10% probability area of a significant severe weather report (75mph winds or greater or EF2 tornado or greater within 75 miles of a point). The black hatched area in the second graphic below.

Discussion:
A powerful storm system will move into TX on Friday resulted in a highly active weather period Friday night over SE TX. Moisture is rapidly increasing this morning from the Gulf of Mexico as SE winds increase. As the strong upper level trough digs into TX on Friday, strong forcing aloft will promote surface low pressure formation over N TX/OK. The result will be a significant increase in southerly 850mb winds and the formation of a robust low level jet over the region which will transport deep/rich tropical moisture northward across the building warm sector early Friday. 850mb (5000ft) winds will be howling from the south at over 50kts over much of the region with surface winds Friday afternoon averaging 25-35mph. Warm sector air mass will be capped much of the day on Friday as SW winds in the 700mb level help to bring slightly warmer air from NE MX over the region…this will keep a “lid” on things until the later afternoon and evening hours.

By mid to late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the 70’s the cap begins to erode over the area. Additionally, strong lift will be approaching from the west along an advancing cold front. A squall line of severe storms will develop near I-35 in central TX by mid afternoon and begin to sweep eastward. Ahead of this line the late afternoon warm sector over SE TX becomes unstable with steep lapse rates aloft and surface based CAPE of 1000-2000J/kg (instability). Very strong low level shear will be in place Friday afternoon and evening over the area…the main question continues to be…can the weakening cap erode over the warm sector allowing discrete cells to develop. Given the shear in place Friday afternoon and evening…supercells with tornado potential would be likely if warm sector convection can form. Think the best chance of any discrete cells forming will be mainly N of HWY 105 where the cap is weaker and most likely over Walker, San Jacinto, Polk, and Trinity Counties. If this potential looks more likely early Friday some portions of SE TX could be upgraded to a moderate severe risk level (4 out of 5).

Friday night:
Central TX squall line will advance rapidly eastward across much of SE TX between 700pm and 200am. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible with this line. Overall setup is favorable for the strong low level jet above the surface to be brought down to the surface in the form of damaging wind gusts within the line of storms. Echo wave patterns along the advancing line and notches within the line may produce brief tornadoes along the leading edge. A few wind gust to 75mph or greater will be possible with any significant bowing segments of the line which would produce larger corridors of wind damage.

The overall storm system is fast moving and the steering flow is also rapid which is going to result in storm motions of 40-55mph at times. This will greatly limit warning lead times…so actions need to be quick if a warning is issued for your area. Additionally, the majority of the event will take place after dark and in the more populated areas of SE TX likely between 1000pm-100am when people are sleeping. It is vitally important to have a way to receive warnings…the most audible way is your cell phone, but make sure the alerting functions are enabled and on.

Remember tornado and high wind safety precautions…lowest floor, away from windows, interior rooms.

Be aware of the weather Friday night and be ready to act and take action!

Severe Weather Outlook (Friday):

Going to be an interesting Friday night. I much prefer to see my Severe Weather than get it late at night.

In the mid to long range, our indices continue to move into a favorable spot to deliver consistent cold and Winter opportunities.