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harp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:37 pm The GFS has trended less and less cold air each of the last several runs. As a result, the frozen precip is now gone. It was about the only eye candy we have had this year and was fun while it lasted!

This is warmer? Looks in the same ballpark to me...




With that posted, stop focusing on the surface output, and look at the fact there have been SEVERAL runs in a row of a cold front arriving on the 16th. Each run is going to deliver different strengths of that High. What’s encouraging is each run doesn’t seem to be East based which makes sense given the upper air pattern it keeps delivering.

EPO is negative and PNA is relaxing. NAO is neutral to slightly positive.

12z is cold with another winter storm across Texas.

6 of the last 7 runs showing some sort of Winter Storm for Texas. I'd like to see it on Sunday before I get the least bit excited.

Every single GFS run since Sunday evening has shown cold fronts of varying degrees, albeit all of them would be enjoyable for me with highs in the upper 30s on the warmest one. Only difference with the latest one is it brings the front in Wednesday evening.

What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:08 am What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.

I remember that. Everything in Sugar Land was shut down, people were even going the wrong way on the freeways!

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:17 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:08 am What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.

I remember that. Everything in Sugar Land was shut down, people were even going the wrong way on the freeways!

Hahaha, I remember watching that on TV. Houston gonna Houston when it gets snowy/icy.

The maps i seen doesnt show a winter storm near houston just rain..

The maps i seen doesnt show a winter storm near houston just rain..

Not that it really matters this far out but the 12z GFS does show frozen precip along i-10 and north.

Any thoughts on Friday's weather? I saw a graphic on Twitter showing a "possible" tornado threat.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:08 am What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.

That was a good winter weather event for us up here in central Montgomery County. The road in front of my house remained white throughout the day with blowing snow and a high temp of 25 degrees that day. I had snow on the ground 2 days later and killed a doe with my muzzleloader with snow still on the ground....in Southeast, Texas.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:05 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:08 am What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.

That was a good winter weather event for us up here in central Montgomery County. The road in front of my house remained white throughout the day with blowing snow and a high temp of 25 degrees that day. I had snow on the ground 2 days later and killed a doe with my muzzleloader with snow still on the ground....in Southeast, Texas.

FB_IMG_1578408730825.jpg

Yep, I remember driving to HEB in the evening and the sleet changing over to Snow as the deeper cold air arrived. It was 23 with a 30 minute changeover from sleet/freezing rain to snow. Roads were fun.

That night I believe we got down to 11.8 degrees on the home weather station. I think the official low was 13. A reporting station in the Crockett National Forest between Crockett and Weches got down to 3 degrees.

Nah, winter storm for DFW, but not us. I'll bet Blake's house on it.

That weekend is also the Houston Marathon.

18z GFS still has a winter storm across southeast TX.

When our boy blake Mathews starts posting this on fb you know there is something to it..

"Models around January 17th (week from Friday) are becoming very interesting really fast.

Won’t go into detail but we’re watching very closely how the pattern evolves into next week.

Sorry for the cryptic message but I don’t want any undue excitement before I’m reasonably sure something could happen.

Stay tuned."

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:14 pm When our boy blake Mathews starts posting this on fb you know there is something to it..

"Models around January 17th (week from Friday) are becoming very interesting really fast.

Won’t go into detail but we’re watching very closely how the pattern evolves into next week.

Sorry for the cryptic message but I don’t want any undue excitement before I’m reasonably sure something could happen.

Stay tuned."

-PNA and active southern jet aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. If the front is as strong as advertised and moves as quickly as advertised there will be a lot of lift and we would be in the ballgame for a solid freezing rain changeover to sleet event I10 north.... could go further south depending on strength of High.

It could also end up being one of those classic borderline events where we see 33-35 and rain while College Station to Huntsville and points north get the goods.

I'm in south Louisiana, watching this closely. Many times what SE Texas gets, we get the next day....

So anyway....about Friday?

0z GFS is still showing a ice storm next Thursday/Friday fwiw

Winter weather, particularly freezing rain occur around mid to late January.

Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011]
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houice.htm

don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:41 pm 0z GFS is still showing a ice storm next Thursday/Friday fwiw

Yeah, but I would like to see the strength of the hp a few mb stronger.