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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 pm The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.

It is very stormy to our West. Fingers crossed the cap holds for most in SE Texas overnight.

Seantx81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

I'm thinking the exact opposite. Cloudy all day, kinda cool, strong south wind and misting off and on. We have had no surface heating today.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 pm The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.

Yep. Crazy looking cell sw of SA that's moving very fast.

Seantx81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

Agree been seeing this all last night and today in Galveston.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:48 pm

Seantx81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

I'm thinking the exact opposite. Cloudy all day, kinda cool, strong south wind and misting off and on. We have had no surface heating today.

In the Summer and Late Spring I’d agree. Not during Winter with this set up.

Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 pm Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:27 pm

sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 pm Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

1 AM? The line was supposed to be into the Gulf and LA by that time.

There looks to be a bowing segment forming east of San Antonio riding along I-10, theirs currently a severe thunderstorm and tornado warning for the cell.We'll have to see if it stays organize as it pushes towards southeast Texas in the next few hours.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:33 pm The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

Don’t think so. There’s a tornado on I10

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:40 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:27 pm

sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 pm Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

1 AM? The line was supposed to be into the Gulf and LA by that time.

San Antonio is a 3.5 hour drive from Houston and that line is not moving 65 mph

The part due west of us looks to be moving at about 40-45 mph at the moment, about 130 miles from Houston. So very well may be here before 1 am.

Looking like there may be several areas trying to spin (one in particular just a bit south of where the current warning is for).

Mesoscale Discussion 0022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Areas affected...east Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 110249Z - 110445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch downstream of WW0004 will be needed across
portions of east Texas in the next hour. Tornadoes and damaging
winds will be the main severe threats.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a couple of embedded
supercells is stretching south-north across central Texas. This line
of storms is expected to continue and further mature into a squall
line with plenty of instability and shear downstream. Additionally,
the low-level jet, which is already 40-50+ knots per mesoanalysis
and observed 00z soundings, will strengthen overnight. While the
flow will be mostly parallel to the line, the strong flow/forcing
will still result in a squall line moving eastward with cell motion
moving more to the northeast. Damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes
are the main severe threat. A couple of discrete cells may form
ahead of this line, which would increase the tornado threat.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28929531 28549621 28449680 28549722 29729706 30619679
30809636 31179574 31229567 31269452 31059406 30799395
30179386 29719410 29569434 28929531

Yep, Don already posted. An active weather night on the way. Make sure your friends, family, and co-workers are weather aware tonight.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:40 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:27 pm

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

1 AM? The line was supposed to be into the Gulf and LA by that time.

San Antonio is a 3.5 hour drive from Houston and that line is not moving 65 mph

The line was forecasted all day long to be east of our region by 1 AM.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:33 pm The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

Don’t think so. There’s a tornado on I10

It weakened. There was dark red echoes on the radar when the storms were west of SA and once it got east of there the intensity in the rain got less. Dark red echoes replaced by light red and orange on the radar. That’s what I meant by saying it weakened. Models were hinting at that all day long.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:32 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:33 pm The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

Don’t think so. There’s a tornado on I10

It weakened. There was dark red echoes on the radar when the storms were west of SA and once it got east of there the intensity in the rain got less. Dark red echoes replaced by light red and orange on the radar. That’s what I meant by saying it weakened. Models were hinting at that all day long.

The line is expected to restrengthen once it reaches the I-45 corridor,several of the models have depicted that the line would weaken and then start to strengthen as it progresses east.