Hurricane Alex - NHC outlooks

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 92.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST. ALEX IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A
MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION AT CAYO ARENAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 68 MPH...109 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
534 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

.AS THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM ALEX MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING THEN
BEGINS A TURN TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE FLUCTUATING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING. IN
ADDITION LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
CAUSING RUN UP ON THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

TXZ213-214-235>238-291845-
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.A.0002.100630T0000Z-100702T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
534 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

AS THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM ALEX IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES
NORTH THIS MORNING THEN BEGINS TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST
TRACK WEDNESDAY THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
LOUISIANA TO PRODUCE A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. IN ADDITION LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM ALEX WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH FLOODING DUE TO THE RUN UP ON THE GULF
FACING BEACHES.

PEAK TIDE LEVELS OF 3.3 TO 4.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD BEACH FLOODING AND COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR THE COAST ESPECIALLY ON BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MATAGORDA BAY TO FREEPORT. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS CONCERNING PEAK WATERS LEVELS DUE TO POSSIBLE TRACK
FLUCUATIONS WITH ALEX.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&
LOCATION TIDE TIMES EXPECTED TIDE TYPE
WATER LEVEL
MORGANS POINT...
TUE 4:54 AM 0.8 FEET LOW TIDE
TUE 2:28 PM 2.4 FEET HIGH TIDE

WED 5:30 AM 2.0 FEET LOW TIDE
WED 2:29 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 6:03 AM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 2:25 PM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE

MANCHESTER...
TUE 5:47 AM 1.0 FEET LOW TIDE
TUE 2:57 PM 2.6 FEET HIGH TIDE

WED 6:18 AM 1.8 FEET LOW TIDE
WED 2:54 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 6:46 AM 2.1 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 2:58 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE

ROLLOVER PASS...
TUE 3:24 AM 1.2 FEET LOW TIDE
TUE 12:33 PM 2.3 FEET HIGH TIDE

WED 3:37 AM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
WED 12:03 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 3:51 AM 2.7 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 11:50 AM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
THU 7:35 PM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 10:12 PM 3.1 FEET HIGH TIDE

EAGLE POINT...
TUE 3:29 AM 0.8 FEET LOW TIDE
TUE 3:10 PM 2.0 FEET HIGH TIDE

WED 4:03 AM 1.9 FEET LOW TIDE
WED 2:50 PM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 4:32 AM 2.3 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 2:08 PM 3.1 FEET HIGH TIDE

GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
TUE 12:07 AM 0.7 FEET LOW TIDE
TUE 8:37 AM 2.3 FEET HIGH TIDE

WED 12:38 AM 2.0 FEET LOW TIDE
WED 9:00 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 1:08 AM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 9:21 AM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE

GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
TUE 7:20 AM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
TUE 11:44 PM 1.4 FEET LOW TIDE

WED 7:47 AM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
WED 3:16 PM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
WED 5:41 PM 3.9 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 12:21 AM 2.9 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 8:13 AM 4.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
THU 3:33 PM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 7:11 PM 3.8 FEET HIGH TIDE

FREEPORT USGS...
TUE 7:33 AM 3.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
TUE 11:34 PM 1.4 FEET LOW TIDE

WED 7:52 AM 3.9 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 12:11 AM 2.9 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 8:10 AM 4.1 FEET HIGH TIDE
THU 3:33 PM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 5:49 PM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE

PORT OCONNOR...
TUE 1:50 AM 0.8 FEET LOW TIDE
TUE 12:36 PM 1.6 FEET HIGH TIDE

WED 2:16 AM 2.2 FEET LOW TIDE
WED 12:33 PM 3.1 FEET HIGH TIDE

THU 2:42 AM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
THU 12:29 PM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE

TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED REALATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER (MLLW).

.THE TIDE OUTLOOK...
THE TIDE LEVELS SHOULD LOWER DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 93.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ALEX IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE
LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42055...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 38 MPH...
61 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxdata]

Still only a tropical storm:

WTNT31 KNHC 292035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED....AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOMETIME
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxdata]

4pm Discussion:

WTNT41 KNHC 292047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS
PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.

ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF. THUS...
THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
NECESSARY.

ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL
OCCURRING. THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK
INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT. THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS
NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE
FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST
POINTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 23.2N 94.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 23.9N 95.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.9N 98.1W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.2N 99.9W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 103.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[wxdata]

No cigar this advisory-

WTNT31 KNHC 292349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE APPROACHING
THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ALEX IS STRENGTHENING AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE
CENTER SHORTLY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON AND THE FIRST
JUNE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SINCE 1995...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 94.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. ALEX HAS MOVED
MOSTLY WESTWARD NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS
CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301140
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX MOVING IN NO HURRY......


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
ALEX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALEX
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF ALEX RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...86 KM/HR WITH A GUST OF 63
MPH...101 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...BUT FORECAST TO DO SO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
95.5 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...BUT A TURN MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN SOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.
ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12
MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE
BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302036
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX HEADING TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH 90 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. ALEX
HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION IN
MATAMOROS JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...103 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN A FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION
IN MATAMOROS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...78 KM/HR AND AN
UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHORTLY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010100
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
800 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALEX
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL BE
MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS.

ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG