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Average high this time of the year is only the mid 60's. Christmas morning will wake up to temperatures in the mid 50's warming to about 70 during the afternoon. GFS and Euro are pretty good in agreement with that. I'll take that than the 80+ we've had in past Christmas' during this decade. To top it off, it should remain fairly pleasant with no rain. Deeper moisture looks to return during the afternoon on Christmas and through the end of the week ahead of the next weather system that should arrive the first part of the following week.

I'm still seeing indications we should turn to much more 'seasonable' weather the first part of the year. Remember, it isn't even officially winter yet. That isn't till 10:19pm Saturday.

I'd like to see a healthy soaking rainfall more than anything honestly. Put aside the cold and wintery stuff. Drought is steadily creeping in. Hopefully some can squeeze out a quarter to half an inch Friday evening into Saturday. Higher amounts will likely be just near the coast.




Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is hopeful on much needed rain in the coming weeks and into January.







Oh, and less shades of orange/red for January...

At this point, I would be thrilled to have that January forecast verify. ^

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:44 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:51 am Hot on Christmas for the 3rd or 4th year in a row seems like. Humbug.

72 isn’t hot. Cheers.

It is when it should be in the 30s and 40s.

I thought we were supposed to get some decent rain tonight. This is from Jeff’s email on Wednesday:

Upper level system moves across the area Saturday morning and this will likely be the best chance for rainfall the area has seen in a while. Forcing along the trough axis should result in widespread showers and possibly even some thunderstorms late Friday night through sunrise on Saturday morning. Will taper rain chances a amounts from the highest over the Matagorda Bay region to the lowest near Lake Livingston. Some areas near the middle TX coast/Matagorda Bay could see upwards of 1.0-1.5 inches

This is the latest forecast from the NWS:

Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 5 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind around 5 mph.

What did I miss?

Every time we have a forecasted chance of rain 3-4 days out it drys up when getting 24 hours out it seems. We could really use some rain amounts measured in inches and not tenths. I really miss strong fronts blowing through bringing a thick line of heavy showers.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:06 am I thought we were supposed to get some decent rain tonight. This is from Jeff’s email on Wednesday:

Upper level system moves across the area Saturday morning and this will likely be the best chance for rainfall the area has seen in a while. Forcing along the trough axis should result in widespread showers and possibly even some thunderstorms late Friday night through sunrise on Saturday morning. Will taper rain chances a amounts from the highest over the Matagorda Bay region to the lowest near Lake Livingston. Some areas near the middle TX coast/Matagorda Bay could see upwards of 1.0-1.5 inches

This is the latest forecast from the NWS:

Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 5 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind around 5 mph.

What did I miss?

Well Houston itself won't see much rain from this system more than likely. Down towards Matagorda Bay down to Victoria and Corpus have the best chance at picking up over half an inch. I do agree this will be the best chance of rain we have seen in 4-6 weeks. Though, I wouldn't expect much tonight for SETX besides some light rain. Saturday morning will provide the greatest lift to produce some possibly isolated heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. Those will be the lucky ones.

Big rain event next Sunday on the Euro.

Today is the shortest day of the year as Winter Solstice begins at 10:19PM tonight. Winter has arrived but Christmas will feel more like Spring across SE TX. Skies will clear tonight resulting in mostly sunny skies through Christmas with highs rising into the low 70s.

My thoughts of the 3rd-7th and a large cold shot materializing is showing in the long range. Let’s see if it holds.

The GFS is showing our source region loading up. Only problem is that it’s in the long range, of course.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:53 pm The GFS is showing our source region loading up. Only problem is that it’s in the long range, of course.

it's always in the long range....that's the problem this year. Never verifies.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:27 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:53 pm The GFS is showing our source region loading up. Only problem is that it’s in the long range, of course.

it's always in the long range....that's the problem this year. Never verifies.

We haven’t seen this, this year. We haven’t seen the upper level pattern, severity of cold or placement of it.

I could see it coming several days ago. The first step was making sure the progression of the Pacific kept in sync. The second was the cross polar flow. The third was the southward movement into NW canada.

All of that has happened as the EPO tanks. It’s a great set up for us to deliver cold the 2nd week of January and thereafter.

I like what I’m seeing at the end of the 12z Euro.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:26 pm I like what I’m seeing at the end of the 12z Euro.

Explain, please.

harp wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:44 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:26 pm I like what I’m seeing at the end of the 12z Euro.

Explain, please.

The Euro shows building cold in our source region slowly inching south and it shows a big trough/low pressure system really far south over the Baja. Hopefully it’ll eject east and not northeast if that does happen to verify.

Thanks

0z Euro is awesome! 2-4” of rain over the next 10 days. Bring it on please!!

BBBRRRRR.......

The epic Upper TX snowfall 15 years ago this evening.