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Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:24 am
by srainhoutx
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006211308
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:26 am
by srainhoutx
Code: Select all
151
WHXX01 KWBC 211310
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W
BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W
BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W
LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W
BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W
BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W
LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W
SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:40 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:10 am
by texoz
some reliable posters on wunderground are extremely concerned about this one. low shear & very warm waters over the next few days for 93L
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:13 am
by Hardcoreweather
GFS is forecasting almost no shear and with the very warm water this thing will be a real player down the road . If I was to pick a landfall location at this time I would say Northern MX
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:51 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:55 am
by srainhoutx
One thing that raises and eyebrow for me is the strength of the Upper Ridge. Although some guidance suggests it will weaken and shift to our N and E, one has to wonder if that will infact varify. Regardless, I suspect we will see Alex declared before the week is over IMHO.
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:00 am
by srainhoutx
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:01 am
by ticka1
Are we going to be protected by the heat ridge for this one? Or is it going to break down and move aside?
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:03 am
by srainhoutx
May see RECON soon as well...
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:17 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:29 am
by Portastorm
Currently light shear in the central Carribbean with GFS forecasting very little shear in its path over the next 48 hours. What's not to stop this thing from developing?
shr_48.gif
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:52 am
by srainhoutx
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:03 am
by Paul
I would agree with you ED...there is not evidence of something at the surface. Not many obs out there to go by and the sat view is a mess. Where is QSCAT when you need it....
personally, track wise it will get into the GOM, How strong it will be and where it would go next is the big question. We need more model agreement to nail this one down....
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:05 am
by Paul
BTW- I would take Wunderground posters with a grain of salt....though I love Jeff Masters some of his peeps are not the sharpest tools in the shed,,,,
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:17 am
by Scott747
Crazy early intensity runs. Should get the first hurricane suite runs in a few hours.
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:21 am
by srainhoutx
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Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:27 am
by texoz
Paul wrote:BTW- I would take Wunderground posters with a grain of salt....though I love Jeff Masters some of his peeps are not the sharpest tools in the shed,,,,
Agree, but there's a few on there that do know what they're talking about. StormW is one. He's usually pretty conservative in his statements and he's concerned about the set up for 93L.
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:31 am
by srainhoutx
Moisture evelope looks impressive for further development...
Re: 93L Central Caribbean
Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:44 am
by srainhoutx
