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Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:35 pm
by sau27
Iv been watching the visible and IR satellite loops, and is it possible that the center has reformed farther to the north from where it was. Maybe my eyes are just playing tricks on me. My only thought would be that since alex isnt too too organized the center could reform somewhere else. I would think if that happened it would throw off current projections a bit.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:36 pm
by weathercat
Just enjoyed Dr. Neil on the 6 pm broadcast. Thank you Dr. Neil for being KHOU's Hurricane Expert! It is reassuring to see him there, looking over things for all of us. Not to ignore the wonderful work that Gene Norman, and all the other wonderful people at KHOU are responsible for. I especially want to thank every one on this board too! I have learned so much over the last few years!
Ok, enough of my standing O for everybody LOL! Back to lurk mode...
Dede
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:39 pm
by redfish1
txsnowmaker wrote:sambucol wrote:Dr. Neil said he is concerned about how slow the storm is moving and that it's moving more to the north than the west, indicating weak steering currents. Also,the track is widening and that means an uncertainty of the track. He also said it won't take much to shift the storm to the north.
Those are my notes from his appearance on the 6pm news.
Thanks sambucol. I recall hearing/reading that a slower movement would likely result in the storm veering more to the west and away from the upper Texas coast (due to timing related to arrival of coinciding trough I think?). It seems that this may no longer be the case given Dr. Frank's guidance.
what website do i go to to see his forecast
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:43 pm
by biggerbyte
Doc is absolutely right. I've been preaching the "wait and see" approach, and talking about the fact that conditions change daily. This was all taught by our own Doc, and the late Harold Taft over the years. One should never put thier apples in one model basket and call it a day. The strange thing is, some of this was long range model forecasting. BAD idea..
Anyway!!! Doc will not confuse you. Watch channel 11 weather, Dr. Neil Frank for a dose of reality.
'Nuff said....
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:46 pm
by sambucol
No problem about the notes!
Redfish 1, Dr.Frank was on the 6pm Ch 11 News tonight with Gene Norman.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:51 pm
by SusieinLP
I think a bigger message is not to think the only damage comes from a direct hit. Being on the dirty side of a storm even miles away can be almost as bad. Just a move towards Corpus could put us in a bad way. Even if we never make it into that cone, we could stll get some nasty waves and weather...
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:55 pm
by Scott747
SusieinLP wrote:I think a bigger message is not to think the only damage comes from a direct hit. Being on the dirty side of a storm even miles away can be almost as bad. Just a move towards Corpus could put us in a bad way. Even if we never make it into that cone, we could stll get some nasty waves and weather...
This is setting up to be a good size storm once it gets further into the BOC. As mentioned the farther up the coast it tracks the more influence and effects our weather across the local area will have.
Ran to the beach just a bit ago and without a doubt I could smell that a cyclone was brewing in the Gulf. Of course it helps that I already knew in advance.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:57 pm
by biggerbyte
Folks, Sat. and Radar imagery indicate a slow movement northerly without any westerly component what so ever. Is it all just weeble wobble? Time will tell. Repeating, folks from Brownsville to NOLA need to watch out for not only landfall, but post landfall forecasts.
Also, Alex appears to be waking up again. Watch him grow overnight. We'll see.. Tuesday promises to be another nerve racking day.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:58 pm
by srainhoutx
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
...ALEX MOVING LITTLE...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 91.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:09 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:29 pm
by Andrew
So very interesting setup right now. If the storm sits around long enough it could feel the effects of the next trough. As of now though it currently looks to be heading NNE
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:31 pm
by Bluefalcon
Goodnight Alex:
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg
And it's about to rain cats and dogs here in Round Rock....Flash Flood watch to boot.
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:31 pm
by sambucol
Andrew wrote:So very interesting setup right now. If the storm sits around long enough it could feel the effects of the next trough. As of now though it currently looks to be heading NNE
What would the effects of the trough have on the storm?
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:33 pm
by Ptarmigan
Quite frankly, I have very low confidence on any of the models for Alex. They are all over the place.
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:43 pm
by Snowman
Looks like Alex is growing from a boy to a man. he is getting quite large! there is no question that we will still see widespread decent rainfall even if the storm were to hit brownsville
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:43 pm
by Rebs73
Ptarmigan wrote:Quite frankly, I have very low confidence on any of the models for Alex. They are all over the place.
I am with ya on that. I just can't see it following the current track.
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:49 pm
by nuby3
IMHO, it looks like the center is re-forming further north.. but I am just an enthusiast and have no evidence other than my eyes.
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:50 pm
by Bluefalcon
Given the coords. off the 7PM update, Alex has reformed off to the east and north under the convection firing up through the afternoon:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:52 pm
by Scott747
srainhoutx wrote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
...ALEX MOVING LITTLE...
Nothing like a stall.
You know a few days ago some of the models had it slowing down and allowed it to move back up the coast as a 2nd trough eroded the ridge. I think Masters briefly touched on it as a reason the GFS was showing some of its odd movements. This was done as it approached the coast and has nothing to do with the current 'stall.'
However it might just be something to keep a eye on of the movement is delayed for any length of time if there is indeed a 2nd trough.
Re: TS Alex. 420 Miles ESE of Tampico. 60 MPH/990 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:54 pm
by srainhoutx
