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Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:15 am
by srainhoutx
Very concerning is the slow motion we are seeing with Alex. In less that ideal conditions, the storm has managed to deepen. Once the southerly inflow is re established, we could see rather robust intensification.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:20 am
by updraft
Regardless of how far north he comes in, upper TX coast is in for some coastal flooding. 15' swell's ... (this is NOT wave height or storm surge)
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Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:22 am
by Bluefalcon
Wherever Alex lands, it just messed up one of the biggest weekends for the Gulf coast. Glad I'm headed to Freeport next weekend.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:23 am
by redfish1
in my opinion the slower this storm moves the more of a chance the upper texas coast and possibly sw louisiana will be in its path
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:25 am
by srainhoutx
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 15:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 14:52:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°13'N 91°43'W (20.2167N 91.7167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 82 miles (131 km) to the WNW (288°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 600m (1,969ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNW (340°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 46kts (From the E at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (352°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:23:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) from the flight level center
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:31 am
by srainhoutx
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:33 am
by Diva
This is a post by a local TV station (Beaumont/Port Arthur) on their Facebook fan page...
Locally, we're expecting scattered showers and storms through Friday as Alex feeds Gulf mositure our way. That is good news for us because we need the rain. This system will be farther to our Southwest so flooding rains are not expected and tropical storm force winds are not a possiblity either.
And this one followed....
Tropical Storm Alex local impacts: This system will make landfall early Friday morning over Northern Mexico as a Category 2 Hurricane.
I'm NOT saying that Alex is going to make landfall in the Golden Triangle. I AM saying that this is careless to dismiss it altogether considering there could be local coastal flooding at the minimum! Using the words "not a possibility" and "will" just seems careless at this point. Am I wrong???
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:45 am
by Bluefalcon
Its the nature of the beast DIva. It's called "wish casting" You have two camps; one camp will dismiss any chance of a local impact. The other camp will outright "root" for the storm to impact their local area, out of some sick excitement the storm will generate. Who can forget Geraldo on the seawall during Ike!
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:51 am
by srainhoutx
Diva wrote:This is a post by a local TV station (Beaumont/Port Arthur) on their Facebook fan page...
Locally, we're expecting scattered showers and storms through Friday as Alex feeds Gulf mositure our way. That is good news for us because we need the rain. This system will be farther to our Southwest so flooding rains are not expected and tropical storm force winds are not a possiblity either.
And this one followed....
Tropical Storm Alex local impacts: This system will make landfall early Friday morning over Northern Mexico as a Category 2 Hurricane.
I'm NOT saying that Alex is going to make landfall in the Golden Triangle. I AM saying that this is careless to dismiss it altogether considering there could be local coastal flooding at the minimum! Using the words "not a possibility" and "will" just seems careless at this point. Am I wrong???
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ALEX OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL
CAUSE INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SWELLS GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM ALEX WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS CONTINUED EASTERLY FETCH
IS CAUSING TIDES ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. TIDES OF
ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
LAZ041-051>055-TXZ215-216-290300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.A.0002.100628T1542Z-100702T0000Z/
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
1042 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS BEGINNING TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TIDES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GIVING TIDES RANGING
FROM 3 TO 4 FEET MLLW NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF ALEX AND THE OVERALL EXTENT OF
THE EVOLVING WINDFIELD ACROSS THE GULF...TIDES OF ONE TO OVER TWO
FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD YIELD
TOTAL TIDES ABOVE 4 FEET MLLW ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
&&
$$
LANDRENEAU
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:53 am
by updraft
Bluefalcon wrote:Its the nature of the beast DIva. It's called "wish casting" You have two camps; one camp will dismiss any chance of a local impact. The other camp will outright "root" for the storm to impact their local area, out of some sick excitement the storm will generate. Who can forget Geraldo on the seawall during Ike!
.... or Al Capone's buried treasure.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:55 am
by weatherrabbit
Diva wrote:This is a post by a local TV station (Beaumont/Port Arthur) on their Facebook fan page...
Locally, we're expecting scattered showers and storms through Friday as Alex feeds Gulf mositure our way. That is good news for us because we need the rain. This system will be farther to our Southwest so flooding rains are not expected and tropical storm force winds are not a possiblity either.
And this one followed....
Tropical Storm Alex local impacts: This system will make landfall early Friday morning over Northern Mexico as a Category 2 Hurricane.
I'm NOT saying that Alex is going to make landfall in the Golden Triangle. I AM saying that this is careless to dismiss it altogether considering there could be local coastal flooding at the minimum! Using the words "not a possibility" and "will" just seems careless at this point. Am I wrong???
hi diva, good to see u on again!!
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:57 am
by srainhoutx
Just an FYI: Doc Frank will be on air at 5 PM and 6 PM tonight.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:57 am
by Scott747
No 12z para GFS run. The operational takes it just below the border @ hr 66.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:01 am
by Bluefalcon
updraft wrote:Bluefalcon wrote:Its the nature of the beast DIva. It's called "wish casting" You have two camps; one camp will dismiss any chance of a local impact. The other camp will outright "root" for the storm to impact their local area, out of some sick excitement the storm will generate. Who can forget Geraldo on the seawall during Ike!
.... or Al Capone's buried treasure.
Tell me about it. I've been a firefighter for 10 yrs. Everyone loves a little commotion. We all like the firetruck, but after 5 mins, we all hate being stuck in traffic. So, for a little excitement, you get a whole lot of inconvenience!
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:02 am
by Rip76
Alex is looking pretty weak at the moment.
I'm wondering if it will get back to hurricane strength.
What's the shear looking like down there?
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:06 am
by tireman4
Rip76 wrote:Alex is looking pretty weak at the moment.
I'm wondering if it will get back to hurricane strength.
What's the shear looking like down there?
Was it ever at hurricane strength? I can not recall that, but I might be wrong.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:10 am
by srainhoutx
Scott747 wrote:No 12z para GFS run. The operational takes it just below the border @ hr 66.
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:11 am
by Rip76
No it wasn't.
I mean, "get to hurricane strength."
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:16 am
by tireman4
Rip76 wrote:No it wasn't.
I mean, "get to hurricane strength."
Ok, cool Rip. Great CD from Rush there Rip. The documentary on them ( Behind the Lighted Stage) was on VH1 Classic Saturday. Quite good. Now, back to weather!!!
Re: TS Alex. 85 Miles WNW of Campeche. 60 MPH/989 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:17 am
by AndrewLozeau
Where do you guys think Alex is going to make landfall?
