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kellybell4770 wrote:Good morning! First let me say how much I appreciate all the knowledge on this board - keep up the very valuable work! Second - I know this is simplifing this a lot, but if you were to give a Houston/Galveston hit a percentage what would it be? You know, like when they give us a 20% chance of rain? thanks!

For folks that look for percentage numbers I usually refer them to this NHC product -

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0854.shtml?

Keep in mind this isn't a percentage for the center of any given storm (like you are wondering) but for the selected areas to see the wind values. Most get confused and think it's a landfall projection.

that was very helpful - thanks!

very true!! very good idea to review plans to take action if need be!

Seeing some 60kt flight level winds from RECON.

I think we will see a adjustment to the N with the next NHC package. Might not be much but probably closer to Brownsville. Could even put the southern areas of Brazoria county in the cone.

I don't think we will see the NOAA data ingested and picked up by the models until the 18z or 0z runs tonight when they should begin to get even more confidence.

Short-term there will be plenty of speculation.

12Z earky track...

With High Pressure to the North contributing so much to the steering of this is there a way to track the high pressure and how weak or strong it is?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 13:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:16:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°08'N 91°38'W (20.1333N 91.6333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 75 miles (120 km) to the WNW (285°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 595m (1,952ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 318° at 35kts (From the NW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (234°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:23:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:23:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:21:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
GOOD ARC / SPIRAL BAND NE - SE

Srain- A pro met on another board was saying that he beliefs some of the models are already too far NW with the storm, but iI'm not really seeing that, are you?

weatherguy425 wrote:Srain- A pro met on another board was saying that he beliefs some of the models are already too far NW with the storm, but iI'm not really seeing that, are you?

I assume this is the post you are referring to...?

00z GEM from yesterday is already off by 150 miles (too far NW), so was the 00z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF...You can't trust the models, but use them u must.

Yeah, maybe I misunderstood it? because' when I look at the vis it appears initilized right, granted its hard to locate the center under all that convection.

TWC starting to hint at a more northern track for alex

NOUS42 KNHC 281430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 28 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 30/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0901A ALEX
C. 29/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 30/0000,0300,0600Z
B. AFXXX 1001A ALEX
C. 29/2200Z
D. 23.5N 94.2W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 30/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1101A ALEX
C. 30/0700Z
D. 24.1N 95.3W
E. 30/0830Z TO 30/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 01/0000Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA 42 WILL BE DOING RESEARCH FLIGHTS INTO
ALEX WITH TAKEOFFS EVERY 12 HRS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
(29/0800Z, 29/2000Z THROUGH 30/0800Z) OPERATING
ALTITUDE 12,000 FT.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281445
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALEX HAS BECOME A LITTLE DISTORTED
THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 66 KT...SFMR VALUES OF 51 KT...AND A DECREASE IN PRESSURE
TO 989 MB. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD
BACK IN SLIGHTLY AND STEER ALEX MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD
HELP DETERMINE WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR MAKES MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD. THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBTLE SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH SOME OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALEX...ALTHOUGH THIS
HAS NOT PREVENTED THE STORM FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING. THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO ABATE BY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD THEN ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE STATISTICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIKELY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 91.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.1N 92.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.3N 92.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 23.5N 94.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 24.3N 95.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.5N 97.7W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

I can't really get a good feel for this system. I really don't know what to think...

Apparently that's the whole problem.

It's not surprising that there was the modest adjustment towards Brownsville. With the shift in models the previous 24hrs it made sense. Now we have the next set of model runs to help get a better idea on if there will be another trend to the N or if we will see some consistency.

Will be watching the para GFS and HWRF/GFDL here in the next few hours and if there is any shift N with the Euro early this afternoon.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

redfish1 wrote:TWC starting to hint at a more northern track for alex

Did Al Roker say that, or that former McDonald's clown who reads borthdays for centenarians on the back of Smucker's jars?


If the models threatening Texas are already wrong, shouldn't this reinforce the belief in a Mexico landfall?

I will say, BRO, in my humble opinion, could easily see gale force wind gusts in heavier rain bands, and might be in an area favorable for a few tornadoes.

ROTFL Now that was funny ..... I just spit up my coffee.

Did Al Roker say that, or that former McDonald's clown who reads borthdays for centenarians on the back of Smucker's jars?


Wow Ed....LOL