Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Andrew]

So very interesting setup right now. If the storm sits around long enough it could feel the effects of the next trough. As of now though it currently looks to be heading NNE

What would the effects of the trough have on the storm?

Could send it farther north.

[Snowman]

Accuweather says this "If Alex remains a smaller, more compact storm, he will likely track northwestward into Mexico. If he becomes a larger storm, Alex will have a better chance at turning northward into Texas."
i was wondering if anyone had an opinion on this statement?

[Scott747]

Solid WV view. You can notice a UL near the Bahamas though I don't think it will have any impact on the movement of Alex.

Animated sequence to watch the motion - http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=wv

[sambucol]

So very interesting setup right now. If the storm sits around long enough it could feel the effects of the next trough. As of now though it currently looks to be heading NNE

What would the effects of the trough have on the storm?

Could send it farther north.

oh. Thanks.

[biggerbyte]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[redfish1]

what time do the 0z models start???could be interesting

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

945 
WHXX01 KWBC 290046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100629 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100629 0000 100629 1200 100630 0000 100630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 91.6W 22.1N 92.3W 23.6N 93.1W 24.9N 94.0W
BAMD 20.7N 91.6W 21.7N 92.2W 22.8N 93.1W 23.9N 94.2W
BAMM 20.7N 91.6W 22.0N 92.2W 23.4N 93.1W 24.7N 94.0W
LBAR 20.7N 91.6W 21.9N 92.3W 23.7N 93.6W 25.5N 94.8W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 65KTS 73KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 65KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100701 0000 100702 0000 100703 0000 100704 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.1N 94.8W 27.8N 97.2W 29.4N 99.5W 31.7N 99.3W
BAMD 25.1N 95.2W 27.1N 96.9W 29.8N 98.6W 33.6N 98.6W
BAMM 26.0N 94.9W 28.2N 97.0W 30.4N 99.2W 33.3N 99.4W
LBAR 27.1N 95.7W 30.2N 96.1W 31.9N 95.3W 32.6N 94.2W
SHIP 79KTS 86KTS 79KTS 64KTS
DSHP 79KTS 37KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 91.6W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 91.6W DIRM12 = 341DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 91.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 50NM 

[wxman57]

Of course, the BAM models are somewhat useless for a storm out of the deep tropics in a changing environment (like with Alex). The real 00Z models will be out after midnight. Might have input from any G-IV mission that was flown, and possibly increased RAOB data. Not sure if the plane flew, though, and I'm not sure what model run the data would be used in.

[Andrew]

Of course, the BAM models are somewhat useless for a storm out of the deep tropics in a changing environment (like with Alex). The real 00Z models will be out after midnight. Might have input from any G-IV mission that was flown, and possibly increased RAOB data. Not sure if the plane flew, though, and I'm not sure what model run the data would be used in.

I was going to say the same thing they have been all over the place but it COULD be an indication of things to change.


So who is staying for the euro.... again..... and again....?

[srainhoutx]

Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

[Hardcoreweather]

TEXMEX Special and has been since 6 days ago . The models nailed this one

[Andrew]

Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

I second that question. Please share you vast knowledge on life wxman.

[Mr. T]

TEXMEX Special and has been since 6 days ago . The models nailed this one

Not in the least, but ok

For the past few days, we've seen some of the worst model spread within a three day period that we've ever seen...

[srainhoutx]

AL, 01, 2010062900, , BEST, 0, 207N, 916W, 55, 987, TS

[wxman57]

Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

[ajurcat]

Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

I feel better now! Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

Thanks wxman57. Many are wondering what we can expect "locally".

[Ptarmigan]

The models are still split. I notice one has Alex making landfall on Texas/Louisiana border.

[Andrew]

Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

Thanks for the input. A lot of people here have had long nights just like you have looking at models. I haven't seen a model spread like this for a long time.

[desiredwxgd]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.UPDATE...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS
LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS SHOWN A JOG TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST RECENT RECON
REPORTS HAS THE EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO 987MB WHICH
IS A 3 MB FALL FROM ABOUT 4 HOURS AGO. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS STILL FORECAST