Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Andrew]

Looks like we are finally getting some action. A link I use a whole lot and I suggest others bookmark really shows the wave getting "Stronger" in the last day or so:

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

12Z EC has a much weaker low nearing the TX Coast around July 1st.

[Scott747]

Euro has also went from STx/NMex to near Florida in the span of a few runs. Typical flip flopping with the longer range and needs to become more consistent and should do so as we shorten the range.

This is still a week or so from being a potential threat to any of the Gulf states.

lol

flip flop du jour

[srainhoutx]

Almost had to expect that run Strat. Getting the 'feel' of tropical season though. I suspect that there will be few late nights ahead for the night crew...

[Scott747]

Almost had to expect that run Strat. Getting the 'feel' of tropical season though. I suspect that there will be few late nights ahead for the night crew...

Well you know how much faith I put into the Euro and do a somewhat decent job in being able to balance out the moves in the longer range. If you put me up against the wall I'd venture to guess that it will start to become more consistent in track with something towards the WGOM, STx/NMex as we move forward.

[srainhoutx]

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290 
WHXX01 KWBC 211846
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100621  1800   100622  0600   100622  1800   100623  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  67.8W   14.2N  69.9W   15.1N  72.2W   15.9N  74.3W
BAMD    13.5N  67.8W   14.4N  70.0W   15.4N  72.2W   16.1N  74.2W
BAMM    13.5N  67.8W   14.2N  70.0W   15.1N  72.3W   15.8N  74.5W
LBAR    13.5N  67.8W   14.5N  69.8W   15.7N  72.2W   16.6N  74.5W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100623  1800   100624  1800   100625  1800   100626  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.6N  76.6W   17.8N  80.6W   19.1N  84.0W   20.3N  87.0W
BAMD    16.6N  76.0W   17.3N  79.3W   18.1N  82.2W   18.9N  84.6W
BAMM    16.4N  76.6W   17.3N  80.2W   18.3N  83.3W   19.2N  86.0W
LBAR    17.4N  76.6W   18.3N  80.5W   20.3N  83.7W   22.4N  85.7W
SHIP        61KTS          76KTS          89KTS         100KTS
DSHP        61KTS          76KTS          89KTS         100KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  67.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  12.8N LONM12 =  65.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 =  63.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Hardcoreweather]

[don]

[sleetstorm]

93L is only 225 miles away from the city of Punta Gallinas in northeastern Colombia, South America and only 77 miles away from the island of Curacao in the southern Carribean Sea. I acquired all of this from Stormpulse/Hurricane. I never knew that KHOU 11 News had that type of software or pragram. It certainly does look rather interesting. I am going to explore more into it.

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

HGX, CRP and EWX NWS are mentioning the Caribbean Disturbance in afternoon AFD's...

HGX...

AS FOR EXTENDED GUIDANCE...THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYS-
TEM/SOMETHING FOR NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ITS TRACK AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN...BUT THEN THINGS GET SHAKY FOR
ITS EVENTUAL MOTION WITHIN THE GULF. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE PROGS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT IS
SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE SRN STATES. LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS CRP IN
ITS SIGHTS BUT THIS SHOULD/IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE DAYS GO ON.
41

CRP...

REGARDING AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
WHERE AND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND THE DAY 7 FORECAST...
AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE COMING DAYS.



EWX...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE PATHWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL BE OPEN OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF AND
GEM (CANADIAN MODEL) RUNS PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS COULD MOVE INTO THE GULF.

[srainhoutx]

Last VIS view before sunset in the Caribbean...

[biggerbyte]

Boy have I been down for the count. Can someone update me on what happened to 92l?

[srainhoutx]

Allen offers a great site for weather guidance (models).

[Mr. T]

That raleighWx site so rocks!!!

It's pretty much the best on the web, imo

Some sites you have to pay to see this stuff...

[srainhoutx]

[Ptarmigan]

Something tells me that 93L will develop into Alex soon.

Just look at the SST. The water is very warm. Warm enough to take a bath.

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 22N68W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO 10N69W MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.
THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WAS MOVING AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 63W-69W...AND FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 69W-75W AFFECTIONS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[srainhoutx]

SHIP suggests a landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. We shall see...

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054 
WHXX01 KWBC 212344
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2344 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100622  0000   100622  1200   100623  0000   100623  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N  70.0W   15.9N  72.0W   16.9N  74.1W   17.9N  76.3W
BAMD    14.9N  70.0W   15.8N  72.0W   16.6N  73.9W   17.1N  75.7W
BAMM    14.9N  70.0W   15.7N  72.1W   16.6N  74.3W   17.3N  76.4W
LBAR    14.9N  70.0W   16.1N  72.2W   17.4N  74.5W   18.4N  76.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100624  0000   100625  0000   100626  0000   100627  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  78.5W   20.8N  82.7W   22.6N  86.3W   24.6N  89.2W
BAMD    17.4N  77.4W   17.8N  80.6W   18.5N  83.6W   18.9N  86.3W
BAMM    18.0N  78.5W   19.0N  82.3W   20.1N  85.5W   21.2N  88.0W
LBAR    19.2N  78.6W   20.7N  82.4W   22.8N  85.4W   24.5N  86.9W
SHIP        51KTS          59KTS          68KTS          79KTS
DSHP        51KTS          59KTS          68KTS          48KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.9N LONCUR =  70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  14.0N LONM12 =  67.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 =  65.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN