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This weather is so boring I'm already looking forward to cane season 2020....
I hate winter.

Any chance of severe weather Thursday? I see we are likely gonna get thunderstorms

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:12 pm Any chance of severe weather Thursday? I see we are likely gonna get thunderstorms

Models aren't showing much CAPE or a wind environment that would support severe weather. I think we should be in pretty good shape.

You wanna have some fun? Look at the 0Z GFS....

harp wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:48 pm You wanna have some fun? Look at the 0Z GFS....

That 00z GFS sure did raise an eyebrow, didn't it? Amazing how much cold air is brought south so early in the year.

harp wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:48 pm You wanna have some fun? Look at the 0Z GFS....

The 1050+mb highs the GFS showed a couple days ago are back again.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Two frontal passages will dominate the focus of this forecast
period.

- The first front on Thursday will bring showers and
thunderstorms. The strongest storms may bring briefly torrential
rainfall, but potential for more widespread excessive rain is
more limited.
- The second front is set for early next week. There is
significant uncertainty in both how cold (and how quickly) the
post-frontal air will be, as well as how much behind the front
precipitation will linger. This could, and probably already has,
started speculation about wintry precip on Tuesday. But any such
speculation would be premature, so let's just put a bookmark
here and revisit it later.


.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are found across Southeast Texas
early this morning with temperatures at 3 AM ranging from around
60 in and around the Conroe area to around 70 at the beaches.
East to southeast winds today will allow for a warmup with high
temperatures expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Looks
like one more dry day for the area. A general increasing cloud
pattern can be expected tonight with increasing rain chances
coming back into the picture during the day on Thursday as the
next cold front moves into the area. Look for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with this front as it works its way
across the area during the day, and increasing north to
northeast winds and falling temperatures after the boundary
moves on through (the lowest temperatures for the day on
Thursday will occur in the evening behind the front). Lowering
rain chances from north to south along with continuing falling
temperatures can be expected Thursday night (lows will bottom
out in the low to mid 40s inland and in the low to mid 50s near
the coast.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

At the open of Friday, the surface front should be well through
there area, as a 1035ish high sits over Missouri. That said, the
850 mb front is only just offshore in the GFS, and more or less
over the coast in the Euro, so I keep some lingering rain chances
right on through much of the day on Friday, but I'm probably being
a bit conservative/slow in clearing those rain chances out.

Though cold advection will likely be ongoing on Friday, you could
probably guess that based on the surface high being near St Louis,
the coldest air should be to our east. As a result, don't expect
temperatures to fall through the day on Friday, but...between the
weak cold advection and still mostly cloudy skies, and maybe some
evaporation still...well, don't expect it to get too warm on
Friday, either.

For the weekend, and particularly Sunday, winds should finally
gain back some onshore component, and with southwest flow just
aloft, we'll also get a return of warm advection at 850. This
should set up a nice, gradual warming trend and fair weather with
generally more sun than clouds. All in all a pretty nice, albeit
noticeably cooler than typical, weekend. Put on a jacket or a
sweatshirt, it'll be great.

We'll shift back into anticipating a cold front as we go from
Sunday night into Monday. Skies should be much cloudier and lows
considerably higher Sunday night into Monday. Earlier about 18
hours apart, the GFS and Euro have come together somewhat on
timing. We should generally expect a front right on our doorstep
to the northwest Monday morning, reaching the Houston metro around
mid-day, and pushing into the Gulf Monday afternoon. Along with
that, rain chances will start to boost towards dawn and stay
relatively high into Monday night. The key word in that sentence
is "relatively" The GFS is decently wet and has more precip than
the Euro, which is probably not a big surprise given that
precipitable water is up to 1.75 inches, while the EPS ensemble
mean is more in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. If we're closer to
1.25 inches, this front will be considerably drier.

What'll really cause some buzz is that the 00Z GFS is all about
some freezing rain and sleet, mainly to the north and northwest of
Houston on Monday night. So...is that gonna happen? Well, 6 days
out, if I'm going to answer honestly, I have to say there's a
nonzero chance. But, y'all - this is 6 days out, let's chill. This
setup is going to hinge on very small margins, and as much as I
wish I were that good this far out, I'm not. I do know the GFS has
a history in being too aggressive with cold air outbreaks in
winter, and while there've been steps to improve that, this may
still be a concern. And, uh...the Euro doesn't have this at all,
and this is a range in which the Euro is probably more reliable at
this point. Also, looking at the GEFS, only two members have snow.
Given the relatively short period for moisture return, I'm also a
bit unsure that we'll see precip lingering long enough to see
sufficient influence from the incoming cold air.

So, what can we say about Monday night? Well, the responsible
thing to do is acknowledge that there may be an overlap of cold
air and lingering precip, and so we'll be sure to check in on this
as we get closer. As the forecast goes, I hold some slight chance
PoPs into Tuesday. For temps, I conservatively stick close to,
but a little cooler than, the NBM. As a result, the explicit
forecast probably flirts with introducing snow, but stays all
rain, with the weight of the Euro and the bulk of GEFS members
taking me in that direction. This is the more likely outcome, and
the direction I'll take with the forecast unless future data
supports otherwise. Also, "Bah, humbug".

Another warm and partly cloudy Fall day on the way for SE TX.

The overnight AFD from the NWS is worth reading. A little humor is thrown in too. I’m enjoying this weather while it lasts.

Next week looks rather intriguing and could bring a very active weather pattern for areas from the Rockies on East as well as our Region and the Gulf Coast States. The ensembles do suggest colder and wetter weather may well be in the cards, but beyond 5 days with a highly volatile upper air pattern developing, a tempered approach is necessary. What I do see are some indication of an upper trough extending well SW of Texas into Mexico and on NE to the Great Lakes. The fly in the ointment is the possibility of a Coastal Low organizing mid to late next week after the next very chilly airmass next Monday night. The WPC has really increased the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for drought stricken areas of the Lower Rio Grande Valley in the Day 6 to 7 timeframe. We will need to monitor that potential NW Gulf Low development closely as it has the potential to bring a variety of weather worries to the Southern half of Texas extending well to our East.

Next week looks awesome! Lets keep pumping the GOA ridge.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:31 am Next week looks awesome! Lets keep pumping the GOA ridge.

The rest of the month looks awesomer and awesomer...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061800
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions should prevail through the first half of the TAF
package before ceilings lower to MVFR/IFR criteria by the early
morning hours. Ceilings should remain low through most of tomorrow
out ahead of the next frontal passage. Could also see some
isolated patchy fog during the overnight hours. The cold front
looks to arrive across our northern terminals just outside this
current TAF period, but showers and some isolated thunderstorms
ahead of the main wind shift cannot be ruled out. More widespread
coverage of precipitation will be possible tomorrow afternoon.
Therefore, winds should remain light and variable tonight, before
turning back onshore shortly after sunrise. Winds behind the
front will be out of the north between 15 to 20 knots and gusty at
times late tomorrow afternoon.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 953 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019/...
Minor tweaks to the short term portion of the forecast this
morning to account for trends in cloud cover, temperature and
dew point observations. High temperatures should rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s area wide today, under mostly clear skies.
Winds remain out of the east southeast, helping to keep drier air
in place over Southeast Texas. Only other tweak to the forecast
was to speed up the front a bit Thursday afternoon into the
evening hours. Short term guidance such as the ARW, NMM, and the
Texas Tech WRF show the wind shift reaching our northern zones
from Burleson to Houston County around noon Thursday, and hitting
the coast by the early evening hours.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 61 74 48 57 40 / 0 80 40 20 0
Houston (IAH) 63 77 51 58 43 / 10 80 60 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 76 55 61 51 / 10 80 90 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08

The 12Z ECMWF turned dramatically colder this run. The European drops a 1045mb Artic High into the Texas Panhandle Monday night. The Euro and GFS suggest we may see widespread freezing temperatures early to mid next for morning lows. It is awfully early to see temperatures that chilly in early/mid November around these parts.

Srain, you still thinking a spin up low possible? Trough looks pretty amplified.

harp wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:48 pm Srain, you still thinking a spin up low possible? Trough looks pretty amplified.

There appears to be a noisy sub tropical jet with a possibility of a Baja upper low sometime next week. That upper trough looks to hang around overhead into the extended range. I see the top analog for the Day 8+ Super Ensemble from the CPC is 1976. That was a brutally cold winter across the Plains and on East. It also was the year of a snow drought across the Southern/Central Rockies.

Thank you for your response.

I'm just having a hard time taking this seriously because it's so early.

It's certainly early to see that kind of cold, but the Climate Prediction Center in their just Updated Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggest the potentially chilly and unsettled weather may stick around for awhile.

I did a quick research of my saved images after hearing some folks say that 2014 may be a good analog. This is what I found...