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Key West just broke its all-time streak for temps getting above 80. Wish I was there:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... mer/627654

In the meantime, I haven’t gotten a run in since Sunday. This cold, damp weather is the worst. At least we’re not in a drought.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 5:31 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:17 pm

Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?

Reread my post. The background state

But the background state was favorable for us last winter? I remember hearing that last year. Unless I’m just trippin lol

We had a decent North Pac but we were still recovering from the Super Nino... it is much more favorable this year with the combo of Halong contributing to an already favorable WPO/EPO

GFS continues to look boring for the rest of the month. ….

Be careful out there this morning.

After getting near freezing early this am and cold rain yesterday, expect 5 straight days of great weather ahead!

219
FXUS64 KHGX 151208
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

.AVIATION...
Still quite a bit of fog/low clouds around SE TX this morning.
Did push back the clearing a little bit based on these current
trends. As the NE winds pick up, we`ll likely see things clear
late this morning/early afternoon (15-17Z). VFR thereafter. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019/

SHORT TERM [Through Monday night]...
Areas of dense fog situated across the northern 1/3 of the CWA
early this morning. SREF guidance hints that the dense fog advsy
may need to be extended further sw prior to sunrise so we`ll be
keeping an eye on that. In addition, freezing temps will probably
sag into extreme northern parts of the region, so added 3-4 hours
of freezing fog to the grids there. Not expecting any significant
travel impacts, but there could be a thin coating of ice on car
windshields and elevated structures. Fog should burn off by mid
morning and yield mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day
(mclr skies tonight) with upper ridging & sfc high pressure in
control.

Clouds should begin returning to the area Sunday as the high moves
ewd and moisture makes its way back in from the western Gulf. A
trof will dig southward across the Plains into the Mississippi
Valley this weekend which will send a diffuse frontal boundary
toward the area Sunday night and Monday. It should be moisture
starved so am not anticipating much in the way of precip...just a
weak wind shift which should clear things back out early in the
week. 47

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...
Expect a gradual warming trend during the midweek period as
onshore winds resume and increase as lee side pressures fall ahead
of the next mid/upper trof dropping into SoCal. It should begin
kicking out to the east during the second half of the week. Its
associated frontal boundary should be approaching the area late
Thurs or Fri, but not confident whether it`ll make it all the way
off the coast or not but should bring our next decent shot of
rainfall. 47

MARINE...
Winds and seas will be decreasing today as the pressure gradient con-
tinues to weaken. High pressure building into the area will maintain
light offshore winds tonight and Sat. As this high moves further east
by Sun, a light E/SE flow will be developing...just ahead of the next
cold front that is progged to push into the coastal waters late Sun/
early Mon. This front will likely just be a reinforcing shot of cool
dry air with generally light offshore winds. SCEC conditions could be
possible over the offshore waters briefly for Mon. Light onshore winds
are set to return areawide Tues night...slowly strengthening through
the week as the next system moves into and develops over the Central
Plains. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 36 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 59 37 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 47 60 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...
Trinity...Walker...Washington.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:47 am After getting near freezing early this am and cold rain yesterday, expect 5 straight days of great weather ahead!

Headed your way in a few hours. Looking forward to a sunny yet crisp Friday & Saturday in the Brazos Valley!

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:47 am After getting near freezing early this am and cold rain yesterday, expect 5 straight days of great weather ahead!

Hopefully the dry weather prevails. I need time to sump out the low spots in the back yard. It would be nice to get things dry enough to mow back there!

It’s so nice to see the sun again.

None of my plants got burned by the light freeze we had. I didn’t have time to cover them. The tree canopy saved them. Thank goodness I did not hit that forecast low of 25!!

Since it's slow in here right now, I thought I would post this from Larry Cosgrove from a few minutes ago:

It is funny how a weather model can trigger a great memory.
When the forecast charts came in during early morning and around noon, it was evident that yet another stormy and cold sequence is coming to the U.S. For a moment in time I felt like the 22 year old version of Larry Cosgrove. Slightly sadistic, twisted smile. Outbursts of laughter. Friends messaging me saying, "DID YOU SEE THAT?"
Of course I did, a Rex block signal straddling the Arctic Circle from Alaska to the Davis Strait. A strong polar jet stream digging into California and ejecting two possibly strong winter storms through the lower 48 states. A chance for an Arctic intrusion around and after Thanksgiving.
I feel better than James Brown. And I remember the times when this type of weather pattern was common. namely 1976 - 1979. It was a magical time, and it taught me that loving bad weather is actually a good thing. Hence the Top 10 countdown from November 15, 1976, which got me going into media weather forecasting.
Kind of like a demented Casey Kasem, right? Ha Ha Ha Ha!

https://youtu.be/co6WMzDOh1o

Chamber of Commerce weather today. Sunny, mild, hint of a breeze. Crystal blue skies.

The next front should arrive around Nov 22. Seasonal temps ahead.

Our benign weather pattern looks to hold into mid week before a storm system ejects from the Desert SW bringing a chance for rain. Looking ahead into the extended range for the hectic Thanksgiving travel period, the ensembles a suggesting a big change in the upper air pattern. If those models are somewhat correct at that very long range, look for a Greenland Block and a deep trough developing across the Plains and a 'hint' of another cross Polar flow. Thanksgiving week could be stormy and chilly for a large portion of the Nation.

On a personal note, my travels begin in the morning to our new home. The weather looks good for traveling the next several days. I hope our Labrador (Allie), Miniature Dachshund (Liza), and two cats (Toby and Callie) are prepared for this move across the Country! I will post pictures after we arrive later this week. Cheers everyone!

Wishing a safe journey to the Srain family!

Its a cool start to the morning across SE TX with temps mostly in the 40s. Lots of sun today with highs in the mid 70s. Expect the same for Tuesday.

The weather was beautiful in Austin over the weekend. Went for a run and then a nice long hike along the lake and Barton Springs - it was amazing. It’s a gorgeous day today. Looks like another fantastic day tomorrow. This is great for November! I love this time of year when the weather is just nice and pleasant - not too hot, not too cold. Just wonderful all around.

Safe Travels Srain! Look forward to reading your posts soon

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:14 pm The weather was beautiful in Austin over the weekend. Went for a run and then a nice long hike along the lake and Barton Springs - it was amazing. It’s a gorgeous day today. Looks like another fantastic day tomorrow. This is great for November! I love this time of year when the weather is just nice and pleasant - not too hot, not too cold. Just wonderful all around.

Great weather for starwatching with the telescope.

Great weather for starwatching with the telescope.
[/quote]

100 % correct. The sky is clear and, here in Grimes County as of a little bit ago, dark enough to see a magnificent star field.

Hot, cold, wet or dry, we here in Texas are blessed with differences in weather. Those who lament "boring days" just hold on a bit. Record cold already in November and we've yet to hit real winter. Amazing stuff.

Hello Orion's Belt!

Orion is clearly visible! Beautiful!