srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:28 pm
Wednesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:
An upper level storm system will move across the area tonight and Thursday resulting in cold and wet conditions.
After a very cold mid November morning across the area, with many places falling to or below freezing, thickening mid and high level decks are currently spreading northeast across the region. Surface temperatures have struggled to warm into the 40’s and currently range from 39 at Caldwell to 46 at Palacios. Radar shows extensive returns approaching from the southwest, but much of this precipitation is falling from the high level deck and into a layer of very dry air in the mid and surface levels resulting in nearly all of the precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground. Cloud decks will continue to lower and thicken into the afternoon and evening hours and expect some patchy light rainfall to begin to reach the ground around Matagorda Bay by early to mid evening.
Upper level storm system moving into the western coast of MX will move ENE tonight into Thursday while at the same time, pressures will lower along the southern TX coast with the formation of a surface coastal trough. This surface feature will enhance the transport of moisture over the top of the surface cold dome increasing lift. The end result will be the development of widespread drizzle and light rain with embedded heavier showers tonight into at least the first half of Thursday, although rain may linger into Thursday afternoon especially south of I-10 and along the coast. Temperatures will stay nearly the same through the entire next 24-36 hours…mainly in the 40’s. Overall the weather for Thursday will be more January like than mid Novemberish.
Upper level system will move east of the area Thursday night and a weak cold front will cross the area helping to keep the cool weather in place through the weekend. Highs in the lower 60’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s will be common Friday and Saturday and then warming into the mid to upper 60’s on Sunday ahead of another frontal system. Air mass behind the front late Sunday into early Monday will be of Pacific nature instead of the recent arctic intrusion, so temperatures will only cool briefly before warming into the 70’s (near average for November) by the middle of next week.
Many locations across SE TX experienced at freeze this morning:
Madisonville: 23
Richmond: 25
Caldwell: 26
Columbus: 27
Anahuac: 28
Conroe: 28
Baytown: 29 Huntsville: 25
Spring: 26
Navasota: 27
Brenham: 28
West Columbia: 28
Deer Park: 29
Wharton: 29
Tomball: 29
College Station: 29
BUSH IAH: 31
Palacios: 32
Bay City: 32
Hobby: 32
Pearland: 32
Victoria: 32
Galveston: 36
Huntsville had snow yesterday which helped lower last night's temps.
These "warm ups" in the medium to long range take us back to average if not a bit below.
Masiello was saying the other day to get use to the North Pac pattern and that the latter half of December into February will be very cold in the lower 48. a
Halong did us cold weather lovers a favor, and the North Pac is going to cooperate. When you're ENSO neutral, the EPO is the dominant variable down here. I'm hoping we can get a positive NAO during that time so we can send daggers right down the Rockies.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1039 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019
.UPDATE...
Forecast continues on track; no significant changes were made to
this update.
Chances of rain will continue throughout the day, as a low
pressure continues to move eastward from the west and across the
local area. Thereafter, cold front moving across central Texas
will move southward and across the region this afternoon. In the
wake of the front, a colder and drier air mass will filter in,
decreasing the chances of rain and gradually clearing skies this
evening/tonight. As winds decrease overnight, the combination of
clear skies and residual ground moisture could result in areas of
patchy fog developing along the northern portions of SE Texas. 24
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:15 am
These "warm ups" in the medium to long range take us back to average if not a bit below.
Masiello was saying the other day to get use to the North Pac pattern and that the latter half of December into February will be very cold in the lower 48. a
Halong did us cold weather lovers a favor, and the North Pac is going to cooperate. When you're ENSO neutral, the EPO is the dominant variable down here. I'm hoping we can get a positive NAO during that time so we can send daggers right down the Rockies.
Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:15 am
These "warm ups" in the medium to long range take us back to average if not a bit below.
Masiello was saying the other day to get use to the North Pac pattern and that the latter half of December into February will be very cold in the lower 48. a
Halong did us cold weather lovers a favor, and the North Pac is going to cooperate. When you're ENSO neutral, the EPO is the dominant variable down here. I'm hoping we can get a positive NAO during that time so we can send daggers right down the Rockies.
Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:15 am
These "warm ups" in the medium to long range take us back to average if not a bit below.
Masiello was saying the other day to get use to the North Pac pattern and that the latter half of December into February will be very cold in the lower 48. a
Halong did us cold weather lovers a favor, and the North Pac is going to cooperate. When you're ENSO neutral, the EPO is the dominant variable down here. I'm hoping we can get a positive NAO during that time so we can send daggers right down the Rockies.
Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mix of LIFR/IFR, light RA/DZ and BR expected this afternoon and
tonight, gradually improving overnight into Friday morning. A
surface low pressure will continue to move eastward and into the
local waters today, maintaining modest low level moisture across
SE Texas. This feature will continue to produce light rainfall
inland through this afternoon and showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms over the waters through this evening. As the
surface low pressure continues to move away from the CWA, a cold
front will move southward and into the northern sectors of the
CWA. Ascent from the boundary will maintain light RA/DZ and low
vis/cig conditions through late evening/early night hours.
Thereafter, rain chances cease as a colder and drier air mass
filters across the region and skies gradually clear out.
The forecast gets a bit tricky in the overnight/early morning
hours. The combination of clear skies, residual ground moisture
and calm to light winds could result in areas of patchy fog
developing across the northern portions of the CWA overnight into
Friday morning. The SREF and sounding models are also hinting fog
mainly CLL, UTS, CXO. Although TEMPOs for lower cigs/vis were
included only for the aforementioned sites on this TAF issuance,
there is a chance other sites may see short periods of lower
vis/cigs as well. By Friday morning, VFR conditions along with a
light northerly winds flow is expected for all TAF sites. 24
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:15 am
These "warm ups" in the medium to long range take us back to average if not a bit below.
Masiello was saying the other day to get use to the North Pac pattern and that the latter half of December into February will be very cold in the lower 48. a
Halong did us cold weather lovers a favor, and the North Pac is going to cooperate. When you're ENSO neutral, the EPO is the dominant variable down here. I'm hoping we can get a positive NAO during that time so we can send daggers right down the Rockies.
Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:15 am
These "warm ups" in the medium to long range take us back to average if not a bit below.
Masiello was saying the other day to get use to the North Pac pattern and that the latter half of December into February will be very cold in the lower 48. a
Halong did us cold weather lovers a favor, and the North Pac is going to cooperate. When you're ENSO neutral, the EPO is the dominant variable down here. I'm hoping we can get a positive NAO during that time so we can send daggers right down the Rockies.
Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?
No weird El Nino.
No guarantees, though.
I agree. It’s hard for me to believe any long range forecast after last winter.
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:15 am
These "warm ups" in the medium to long range take us back to average if not a bit below.
Masiello was saying the other day to get use to the North Pac pattern and that the latter half of December into February will be very cold in the lower 48. a
Halong did us cold weather lovers a favor, and the North Pac is going to cooperate. When you're ENSO neutral, the EPO is the dominant variable down here. I'm hoping we can get a positive NAO during that time so we can send daggers right down the Rockies.
Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?
Reread my post. The background state
But the background state was favorable for us last winter? I remember hearing that last year. Unless I’m just trippin lol
Last year at this time we were saying it was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter too. What’s different about this winter?
Reread my post. The background state
But the background state was favorable for us last winter? I remember hearing that last year. Unless I’m just trippin lol
We had a decent North Pac but we were still recovering from the Super Nino... it is much more favorable this year with the combo of Halong contributing to an already favorable WPO/EPO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019
.AVIATION...
Still quite a bit of fog/low clouds around SE TX this morning.
Did push back the clearing a little bit based on these current
trends. As the NE winds pick up, we`ll likely see things clear
late this morning/early afternoon (15-17Z). VFR thereafter. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019/
SHORT TERM [Through Monday night]...
Areas of dense fog situated across the northern 1/3 of the CWA
early this morning. SREF guidance hints that the dense fog advsy
may need to be extended further sw prior to sunrise so we`ll be
keeping an eye on that. In addition, freezing temps will probably
sag into extreme northern parts of the region, so added 3-4 hours
of freezing fog to the grids there. Not expecting any significant
travel impacts, but there could be a thin coating of ice on car
windshields and elevated structures. Fog should burn off by mid
morning and yield mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day
(mclr skies tonight) with upper ridging & sfc high pressure in
control.
Clouds should begin returning to the area Sunday as the high moves
ewd and moisture makes its way back in from the western Gulf. A
trof will dig southward across the Plains into the Mississippi
Valley this weekend which will send a diffuse frontal boundary
toward the area Sunday night and Monday. It should be moisture
starved so am not anticipating much in the way of precip...just a
weak wind shift which should clear things back out early in the
week. 47
LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...
Expect a gradual warming trend during the midweek period as
onshore winds resume and increase as lee side pressures fall ahead
of the next mid/upper trof dropping into SoCal. It should begin
kicking out to the east during the second half of the week. Its
associated frontal boundary should be approaching the area late
Thurs or Fri, but not confident whether it`ll make it all the way
off the coast or not but should bring our next decent shot of
rainfall. 47
MARINE...
Winds and seas will be decreasing today as the pressure gradient con-
tinues to weaken. High pressure building into the area will maintain
light offshore winds tonight and Sat. As this high moves further east
by Sun, a light E/SE flow will be developing...just ahead of the next
cold front that is progged to push into the coastal waters late Sun/
early Mon. This front will likely just be a reinforcing shot of cool
dry air with generally light offshore winds. SCEC conditions could be
possible over the offshore waters briefly for Mon. Light onshore winds
are set to return areawide Tues night...slowly strengthening through
the week as the next system moves into and develops over the Central
Plains. 41
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...
Trinity...Walker...Washington.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:47 am
After getting near freezing early this am and cold rain yesterday, expect 5 straight days of great weather ahead!
Headed your way in a few hours. Looking forward to a sunny yet crisp Friday & Saturday in the Brazos Valley!
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:47 am
After getting near freezing early this am and cold rain yesterday, expect 5 straight days of great weather ahead!
Hopefully the dry weather prevails. I need time to sump out the low spots in the back yard. It would be nice to get things dry enough to mow back there!
None of my plants got burned by the light freeze we had. I didn’t have time to cover them. The tree canopy saved them. Thank goodness I did not hit that forecast low of 25!!
