November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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From 76°F to 36°F

A 40°F drop since noon today. Almost a 50°F drop expected by this morning - predicted low has been adjusted downward to 28°F in CLL.
Kingwood36
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unome wrote: Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:24 am not a fan of winter :(

https://preview.weather.gov/edd/resourc ... ined|1#%2F
Its beautiful isnt it!🌨😀
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Texaspirate11
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35 by the bay with wind chill feels like 29
North winds gusting...I hate this weather.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Katdaddy
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38F with gusty N winds up to 30MPH. The wind woke me up a few times last night and the heater is now on.
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snowman65
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Going to enjoy the next few days....for me, anyway.....lol....Looks like a ho-hum remainder of the month after this....until we meet again, winter....
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jasons2k
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Brrrr it’s frickin’ cold outside!! That wind cuts like a knife. Not fun at all! I miss those 70’s already!!

I’m under a hard freeze warning tonight with a forecast low of 26. It’s too early in the season for this #%+!% !!!
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...

Still seeing some returns of radar...some of it may contain a mix
of sleet. However, depth of drier air continues to increase from
north-to-south and expect bulk of precip to be on a downward
trend and mostly offshore around or shortly after sunrise. Temps
should mostly be above freezing where it falls, and combined with
warm grounds, not expecting accumulations/impacts in regards to
winter wx...

Look for clouds to gradually scatter out today and winds to diminish
this afternoon. Though breezy, we are able to trim the wind advsy
out of most inland locations as sustained winds 25mph+ are not
anticipated there. Kept it going closer to the coast where that
remains an issue.

Abnormally cold temperatures today should quickly drop after sunset
with dewpoints in the teens and light winds in place. Freeze
warnings have been issued from Liberty County to Wharton county
southward who should see their first freeze of the season.
(Locations further north will also see a freeze but have already
seen their first - hence no freeze warning). However, we did issue a
Hard Freeze Watch for locations north and east of the Houston metro
area tonight. A Hard Freeze Watch is issued when temperatures <24
degrees are a possibility for 2+ hours. A limiting factor for this
would be some high cloudiness, which depending on how thick, may
keep readings from falling that far. Will let the day shift take a
look at things and upgrade/adjust areas to a Warning if necessary.

Wednesday looks like a transition day as the mid/upper low to our
west approaches. Look for increasing cloudiness to be moving in from
the southwest during the day. 47


.Long Term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...

A raw overcast, cold late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
under a weak variable wind field as southeastern Texas will still
remain under the southwestern influence of mid-Atlantic surface
high pressure. A resident cold air mass under overcast skies and
a late day weak cold frontal passage guarantees a Thursday
afternoon that will remain in the 40s...briefly touching the
lower 50s. An upper level closed-off low moving out of
northeastern Mexico will open up into a wave on its northeastern
trek into the western Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday. The
surface reflection of this low will be an offshore inverted trough
that is forecast to move near parallel along the Texas coastline
through late Thursday evening. This system will tap into just
enough moisture (1.3 to 1.4 inch pwats) to be able to generate
light rain and showers. Thursday`s precipitation will move up the
coastline with the highest rain probabilities and QPF being
centered around Matagorda Bay and points offshore. A fully
saturated, strong mid-level inversion prog profile ensures
overcast and more wet conditions...primarily light rain or showers
but cannot rule out an offshore rumble of thunder from any
elevated maritime thunderstorm. The upper low becomes absorbed
within a larger scale eastern CONUS trough early Friday but not
before it pulls a weak cold front down from the north along its
western backside. This will reinforce an already cold air mass as
a north to south clearing line enhances nocturnal radiative
cooling and has early Friday temperatures falling to the middle
30s (north) to around 40 F across the coastal counties. Northern
high pressure building down into the region Friday will produce
sunny skies and a light north-northeast breeze. Daytime
temperatures will warm up into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Little
change in the synoptic pattern will have Saturday`s weather
conditions closely mirroring Friday`s.

Saturday`s brief transitory upper ridging will quickly give way
to the passage of a deep upper trough on Sunday. So, while the
weekend starts out great, it will have a more cloudy close with
slight rain chances...yet still pleasantly mild as daytime temps
warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday. The trough passage
will push in a cold front but there doesn`t seem to be much
downstream overall column moisture to work with. Therefore, POPS
for mainly showers will be on the low side to begin the week. Mid
to upper NW-N flow will stabilize the weather heading into the new
work week. Partially cloudy to mainly clear skies with no
precipitation in the extended forecast. Subsequent day warming
as morning near 50 minTs warm nicely into the middle 60s (Monday)
to lower 70s (Tuesday) just after the noon hour. Sunday`s weak
northeast winds will slowly back to the north and west to
eventually south by Tuesday afternoon. 31

&&

.Marine...

Strong north winds and elevated seas will continue today. Slow
improvement is expected to begin this afternoon into Wednesday.
Gale Warnings remain necessary this morning, but should be
allowed to be downgraded to Small Craft Advisories, from north-to-
south, later in the day. Water is being pushed out of the bays,
with levels currently 1-1.7 ft below normal across northern parts
of Galveston and Matagorda Bays. A Low Water Advisory remains in
effect through the next low tide cycle this afternoon...but may
need to be extended. Vessel groundings are an increased risk in
these situations.

A coastal trough develops Wednesday night, and winds and seas will
again increase. Another reinforcing front will push off the coast on
Thursday. Small Craft Advisories look to be a good bet Thursday into
Friday morning. Northeast winds should prevail going into the
weekend. 47

&&

.Aviation...

MVFR ceilings will continue to lift as colder air deepens. Look for
VFR conditions areawide toward mid morning. North winds will remain
gusty into the early/mid afternoon hours, but should be on a
downward trend through the day and relax this evening. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 43 24 48 40 52 / 10 0 0 40 50
Houston (IAH) 44 27 52 42 50 / 0 0 0 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 47 37 49 49 55 / 30 0 0 50 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Grimes...Houston...Madison...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker.

Wind Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
the following zones: Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Chambers...Coastal Harris.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Short/Marine/Aviation...47
Long...31
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DoctorMu
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A few flakes in the Brazos Valley earlier this am. A snow shower currently in Huntsville.
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srainhoutx
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Ryan‏Verified account @RyanMaue · 11m11 minutes ago

Only 7°F this morning in Amarillo, Texas matching the 7°F in Chicago.

Cold rewriting many records from 1911. Century long cold records are incredibly hard to beat ... and they are being shattered.

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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Freeze warning is in effect for tonight for most areas except the immediate coastal beaches.

Hard Freeze Watch is in effect for: Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, and Walker Counties.

Arctic air mass has firmly entrenched across the region with 800am temperatures running in the mid to upper 30’s and wind chills in the upper 10’s to mid 20’s. While low level clouds are starting to break and scattered with the deepening dry air mass advecting southward, mid and high level clouds associated with an upper level system near Baja are still streaming across the region. Temperatures will only warm into the mid 40’s today under filtered sun.

Tonight:
Clouds will likely briefly think more this evening and with a surface arctic high nearby a very cold night is expected. Nearly all locations will experience freezing temperatures except Galveston Island and the immediate beach areas. Most areas will fall into the upper 20’s including the Houston metro area, while areas along and north of HWY 105 will fall into the low to mid 20’s. Hard freeze watch is in effect for the counties mentioned above for low temperatures of 24 degrees or lower for 2 or more hours. This will be a killing freeze for much of the area and cold weather precautions should be taken.

Upper level system off of Baja currently will begin to move eastward and approach S TX late Wednesday. Clouds will thicken and lower Wednesday as a coastal trough forms along the lower TX coast in response to the incoming lower pressures from the WSW. Both Pacific and Gulf moisture will begin to overrun the dense and cold surface air mass by late Wednesday into early Thursday. Good news is that surface temperatures on Thursday morning will only fall into the lower 40’s which will prevent any sort of freezing or frozen precipitation. It will be continued cold and raw Thursday with clouds, periods of rain, and temperatures only in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s for highs.

Storm system will move eastward on Thursday night with a dry upper level pattern likely in place Friday into the weekend.
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srainhoutx
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Not sure we will get as cold as currently forecasted tomorrow morning the 12Z GFS suggests a thickening blanket of high clouds may put a stop to ideal radiational cooling.
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Cromagnum
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Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.
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djmike
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27 forecasted tonight for Beaumont. This is gonna be fun. Everyone remember the 4 P’s!!! Plants, Pipes, PEOPLE & PETS! Bring those fur babies in.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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344
FXUS64 KHGX 121724
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1124 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Cold front has pushed well off the coast and radar only picking up
on some light rain in the offshore waters. Cloud cover may keep
temperatures from increasing very much today. Winds should
decrease through the afternoon and will end the wind advisory
along the coast at 6PM.

Temperatures for Wednesday morning lows will be tough as there
should be enough "clear" sky for radiational cooling once winds
decouple. Question will be how thick will cirrus be overnight as
SW flow aloft continues with the upper low moving into Mexico from
the Baja peninsula. Based on model guidance, it looks like low
temperatures should be on track with current freeze and hard
freeze headlines. We will need to nail down the hard freeze
warning area for the afternoon forecast update.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Winds should decrease this afternoon and decouple tonight. VFR
ceilings should prevail next 24-30hrs. Mid level clouds should
increase tomorrow afternoon and night.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 26 49 40 52 36 / 0 10 40 50 20
Houston (IAH) 27 49 42 50 39 / 0 0 40 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 37 52 49 55 46 / 0 10 50 70 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning
for the following zones:
Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
the following zones: Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Overpeck

AVIATION...Overpeck
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:06 am Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.
Amen and Amen!
Team #NeverSummer
BlueJay
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I'm rooting for a thick cloud cover tonight as srain mentioned.

YAY clouds!
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:06 am Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.
Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.
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srainhoutx
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Hard Freeze Warning issued for Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker Counties. Brazos and Burleson Counties were not included.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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we'll be at or below freezing 10+ hrs in our corner of NW Harris county, current forecast low is 27, looks like the plants that can be moved are coming inside
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