Re: October:Unsettled Weather Thru Mid Week/Cool Front Wednesday
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:54 am
FXUS64 KHGX 161034
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...
Cold front is currently making its way to the coast this morning
with somewhat spotty coverage along it so far. This front is ex-
pected to move off the coast by 12Z/7AM and we could see another
burst of development as it moves through the coastal waters this
afternoon. Cooler/drier weather on tap for tonight and tomorrow.
Overnight lows progged to fall into the 50s inland and lower/mid
60s at the coast. However, we may not see a lot of the mid/upper
level clouds clear until Fri. A trailing upper low (left way be-
hind the main upper trof) over WTX is expected to meander to the
east (towards SE TX) by Thurs...drawing abundant moisture/clouds
across from the Pacific over the area. Not expecting much by way
of precipitation with this pattern, but given the shallow nature
of the cool airmass, especially along the coast, wouldn`t be too
surprised if there were a few spits here and there. Temperatures
tomorrow may be a category cooler than currently in the grids if
these clouds do verify. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
Clearing skies and slightly warming temperatures on tap starting
Fri on into the weekend. Light winds with perhaps a very weak re-
inforcing shot of dry air on Sat could make for a quiet few days.
Models/TPC are still monitoring the possibility of something dev-
eloping in the Bay of Campeche around this time, but the progged
flow aloft should keep its track away from SE TX.
Rain chances are set to return to the CWA by Sun afternoon as the
onshore flow strengthens a bit in response to the next upper sys-
tem moving off the Rockies. This next upper trof looks rather im-
pressive as it deepens over the Central Plains on Sun night...and
drags a strong cold front into SE TX on Mon. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front pushing off the coast will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the Upper Texas Coastal Waters this morning.
Northerly winds strengthening through the afternoon with SCA
conditions developing late this afternoon or more likely early this
evening and persisting through most of the night relaxing slightly
Thursday morning. A tropical disturbance may move from the Bay of
Campeche Friday northeast towards the New Orleans area Saturday or
Saturday night. This may bump up winds and seas depending on the
level of organization it acquires. Another cold front should arrive
on Monday with SCA conditions in it`s wake.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings north near the cold front - LFK-UTS-CLL line - pushing
steadily southward. Cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving
through the Houston terminals at 10z and should be out of these by
12z with the trend for these to weaken as they move east-southeast
with impacts to LBX/GLS/PSX areas 11-14z. Ceilings in the wake of
the storms and the front should fluctuate between 800-1600ft with a
slow rising trend to the ceilings through 15z then steady out with
MVFR ceilings through 15-17z north and 17-20z IAH/HOU and lastly 20-
01z for the LBX/GLS terminals. Winds should become gusty northerly
with the arrival of the front and may gust as high as 25 knots. VFR
conditions taking hold across the entire area by 01z. Upper level
low is still west of the area and may be dealing with mid/upper
level cloudiness through Thursday. Potential tropical disturbance in
the Gulf Friday could bring back clouds/precip to the coastal areas
Friday with potential for brief MVFR conditions near the coast and
patchy fog well inland Saturday morning.
45
&&
.CLIMATE...
Yesterday was a hot one with numerous records set. Record high mins
tied or broken at CLL/IAH/HOU/GLS some were long standing records.
Record high tied at IAH. No records should be in jeopardy today or
for that matter through the weekend.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 53 73 54 81 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 75 58 73 58 80 / 50 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 65 74 68 80 / 80 10 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through
late tonight for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...
Cold front is currently making its way to the coast this morning
with somewhat spotty coverage along it so far. This front is ex-
pected to move off the coast by 12Z/7AM and we could see another
burst of development as it moves through the coastal waters this
afternoon. Cooler/drier weather on tap for tonight and tomorrow.
Overnight lows progged to fall into the 50s inland and lower/mid
60s at the coast. However, we may not see a lot of the mid/upper
level clouds clear until Fri. A trailing upper low (left way be-
hind the main upper trof) over WTX is expected to meander to the
east (towards SE TX) by Thurs...drawing abundant moisture/clouds
across from the Pacific over the area. Not expecting much by way
of precipitation with this pattern, but given the shallow nature
of the cool airmass, especially along the coast, wouldn`t be too
surprised if there were a few spits here and there. Temperatures
tomorrow may be a category cooler than currently in the grids if
these clouds do verify. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
Clearing skies and slightly warming temperatures on tap starting
Fri on into the weekend. Light winds with perhaps a very weak re-
inforcing shot of dry air on Sat could make for a quiet few days.
Models/TPC are still monitoring the possibility of something dev-
eloping in the Bay of Campeche around this time, but the progged
flow aloft should keep its track away from SE TX.
Rain chances are set to return to the CWA by Sun afternoon as the
onshore flow strengthens a bit in response to the next upper sys-
tem moving off the Rockies. This next upper trof looks rather im-
pressive as it deepens over the Central Plains on Sun night...and
drags a strong cold front into SE TX on Mon. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front pushing off the coast will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the Upper Texas Coastal Waters this morning.
Northerly winds strengthening through the afternoon with SCA
conditions developing late this afternoon or more likely early this
evening and persisting through most of the night relaxing slightly
Thursday morning. A tropical disturbance may move from the Bay of
Campeche Friday northeast towards the New Orleans area Saturday or
Saturday night. This may bump up winds and seas depending on the
level of organization it acquires. Another cold front should arrive
on Monday with SCA conditions in it`s wake.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings north near the cold front - LFK-UTS-CLL line - pushing
steadily southward. Cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving
through the Houston terminals at 10z and should be out of these by
12z with the trend for these to weaken as they move east-southeast
with impacts to LBX/GLS/PSX areas 11-14z. Ceilings in the wake of
the storms and the front should fluctuate between 800-1600ft with a
slow rising trend to the ceilings through 15z then steady out with
MVFR ceilings through 15-17z north and 17-20z IAH/HOU and lastly 20-
01z for the LBX/GLS terminals. Winds should become gusty northerly
with the arrival of the front and may gust as high as 25 knots. VFR
conditions taking hold across the entire area by 01z. Upper level
low is still west of the area and may be dealing with mid/upper
level cloudiness through Thursday. Potential tropical disturbance in
the Gulf Friday could bring back clouds/precip to the coastal areas
Friday with potential for brief MVFR conditions near the coast and
patchy fog well inland Saturday morning.
45
&&
.CLIMATE...
Yesterday was a hot one with numerous records set. Record high mins
tied or broken at CLL/IAH/HOU/GLS some were long standing records.
Record high tied at IAH. No records should be in jeopardy today or
for that matter through the weekend.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 53 73 54 81 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 75 58 73 58 80 / 50 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 65 74 68 80 / 80 10 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through
late tonight for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$