October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[mckinne63]

Took this picture of our gladiolas blooming this morning, wonder what they will look like in the morning. Gladiolas forgot it was fall until today. LOL

[DoctorMu]

47 degree drop in less than 24 hours here.

95°F high yesterday with a dip to 48° this afternoon.

[mckinne63]

Nice to wear my comfy yoga pants this afternoon and not sweat!

[djmike]

Is this front a tad stronger than forecasted? Our forecasted low for tonight in Beaumont was 57. Its now already 54 here and only 9pm. Nws updated our region and originally they had 58 for the low tonight and they now have it at 52. Could the that historic snow fall northwestern of texas have something to do with the front being colder?

[Cpv17]

Is this front a tad stronger than forecasted? Our forecasted low for tonight in Beaumont was 57. Its now already 54 here and only 9pm. Nws updated our region and originally they had 58 for the low tonight and they now have it at 52. Could the that historic snow fall northwestern of texas have something to do with the front being colder?

The front was definitely colder than forecast.

[djmike]

52 was the low in Beaumont lastnight. LOVING IT!!

[Cpv17]

[snowman65]

serious model flip flopping going on with extended range around 25-27. one run its in the 50's and next in the 70's. yesterday even had us in the 30's around the 23rd or so.. I know it's to be expected for for that far out but come on lol

[jasons2k]

We had a 9am baseball game. Out there on the fields it was windy and chilly. I’m just now thawing out.

[DoctorMu]

67°F was the high. Morning low of 53°F. Low temp of 48°F yesterday.

A/C off, sprinklers off. Give this to me every day. Mowing was a breeze. Literally, no sweat at all.

[Cromagnum]

Good cells on the south side

[Texaspirate11]

Nice rain at the bay this morning.

[Cpv17]

I’m not real sure why rain chances are so high today. I don’t see anything on the models that warrants such high chances.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Cool and dry air mass of Saturday is quickly being replaced by incoming warm and humid Gulf air mass.

Warm front near the coast this morning will lift northward today. Thus far deep convection has been focusing along the 850mb front generally from Huntsville to Lake Livingston and then also along the coast from Galveston Island to Lake Charles. In between these two areas, not a whole lot going on at the moment. With heating and the surface warm front near the coast starting to advance inland, expect to see an increase in showers and some thunderstorms over the next several hours with most of the activity focused east of a line from College Station to Freeport. Warm front will progress through much of the area by mid to late afternoon and expect a lull in the rainfall overnight.

A new front will begin to move into the area from the NNW late on Tuesday into Wednesday and this boundary along with disturbances moving NE from MX and a tropical system off of Baja will produce a good chance of showers and thunderstorms over the area. Rainfall amounts today-early Wednesday will likely average .5-1.5 inches with isolated higher amounts and for many areas west of I-45 that were largely missed by Imelda’s rainfall this will be very welcomed.

Front will progress into the Gulf waters and stall on Wednesday and unlike the last front there will not be a significant push of cold and dry air into the region. Front comes back northward as a warm front Thursday into Friday and Gulf of Mexico really opens up next weekend with a surge of tropical moisture from the Bay of Campeche toward the NW Gulf. NHC is currently monitoring this area for tropical cyclone development (20% chance over the next 5 days) and how organized this system becomes will ultimately determine rain chances for the upcoming weekend into early next week. A strong trough will likely be approaching the area early next week and if tropical moisture from the SW Gulf can become entrained into this feature, heavy rainfall would certainly be possible. Should a more well defined tropical system organize and track toward the Louisiana coast, then much of the heavy rainfall would be carried just east of our area. Plenty of time to watch and fine tune the forecast for this weekend into early next week.

[Kingwood36]

Any more cool fronts in sight?

[srainhoutx]

Any more cool fronts in sight?

Looks like another shot of colder air arrives around the 21st, +/- a day or so. I do see some growing signs of a pattern change shaping up during the last week of October. Time will tell!

[Cpv17]

The Euro & GFS don’t look too promising for rain. I wonder what happened? There was a strong signal for a lot of rain just a few days ago and it was consistently showing it for many runs in a row.

[djmike]

Just picked up a quick 2” in Beaumont. First real rain since Imelda. You’d think 24 days ago plants and grass here would have had enough watering but actually plants and grass were beginning to wither. Doesn’t matter if you get 42” or 2”, its all about the length in between rain to keep things healthy.

[Katdaddy]

A slight chance of afternoon thunderstorm today. The next cool front will push across SE TX late tonight through Wednesday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s for most areas with some 50s N of Houston Thursday and Friday. The weekend currently looks to be mostly sunny with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Its still Hurricane Season and the NHC is watching disturbance that will move into the BOC and then WGOM by the end of the week with a 30% chance of development. At this point there will be very little impact as the pattern in place for the weekend will push this disturbance off to the NE away from the Upper TX Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

An area of weak surface low pressure over central America will move into the Bay of Campeche of Wednesday.

Global forecast models have been suggesting that the large area of disturbed weather over central America will drift WNW into the southern Bay of Campeche by the middle of this week and then NW toward the SW Gulf of Mexico by late this week. Recent trends suggest upper level conditions may become favorable for the formation of a tropical system over the SW Gulf of Mexico late this week into this weekend.

An amplifying upper level trough will be approaching TX by late this weekend into early next week and this feature should force any tropical system that forms toward the N and then toward the NE. Latest guidance continues to indicate a tropical system moving across the west-central then north-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

It would be extremely rare for a tropical system to impact the state of TX this late in the hurricane season and the upcoming upper air pattern by this weekend favors a turn of any western Gulf of Mexico system toward the NE toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast.

Local:
A cold front will move into the area tonight and this boundary along with pooled high moisture levels will support a good chance of rainfall over the area tonight into early Wednesday. Lines of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary with rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches and isolated totals up to 3 inches possible. A cooler and drier air mass will move into the region on Wednesday and linger into the later part of the week before moisture begins to return on Friday into the weekend. It is now somewhat uncertain as to how much moisture will move into the area this weekend with the increasing potential for a western Gulf of Mexico tropical system moving across the central Gulf. This feature may take much of the moisture to our east.